Takeaways from AP-NORC poll showing majority of Democrats want Biden to drop out

Nearly two-thirds of Democrats say President Joe Biden should withdraw from the presidential race and let his party nominate a different candidate, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

The poll was conducted mostly before Saturday’s assassination attempt on Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. It’s unclear whether the shooting influenced people’s views of Biden, but the small number of poll interviews completed after the shooting provided no early indication that his prospects improved.

Here's what to know about the poll's findings.

Democrats are somewhat less satisfied with Biden after debate

Only about 3 in 10 Democrats are extremely or very confident that Biden has the mental capacity to serve effectively as president, down slightly from 40% in an AP-NORC poll in February. Democrats are also slightly more likely to say they’re dissatisfied with Biden as their nominee now than they were before his halting debate performance. About half are dissatisfied, an uptick from about 4 in 10 in an AP-NORC poll from June.

Biden's stronger with Black Democrats, weaker with young ones

The poll provides some evidence that Black Democrats are among Biden’s strongest supporters, with roughly half in the survey saying he should continue running. Younger Democrats are especially likely to want to see him bow out – and to say they’re dissatisfied with him. Three-quarters of Democrats under the age of 45 want Biden to drop out.

Harris is viewed slightly less negatively than Biden

As Vice President Kamala Harris receives additional scrutiny amid the talk about whether Biden should bow out, the poll found that her favorability rating is similar to his, but the share of Americans who have an unfavorable opinion of her is slightly lower. Around 6 in 10 Democrats say Harris would make a good president, while about 2 in 10 think not.

Republicans more united around Trump

About 6 in 10 Americans also want Trump to withdraw -- but only about a quarter of Republicans say so. About 6 in 10 Republicans also came out of the debate very or somewhat satisfied with Trump as their candidate. (Too few interviews were conducted after the assassination attempt to provide a clear indication of whether Republicans or Americans overall have rallied further around Trump since then.)

Trump is seen as more capable of winning in November

Americans are much more likely to think Trump is capable of winning the 2024 election than is Biden – 42% to 18%. About a quarter thought the the two men equally capable of winning. Only about a third of Democrats believe Biden is more capable of winning than is Trump, while about 3 in 10 think the two are equally capable of winning and 16% say victory is more likely to go to the Republican. Republicans are overwhelmingly convinced Trump is best positioned to win.

Biden is seen as more honest than Trump

The poll did offer a bright spot for Biden: 40% of adults say he’s more honest than Trump, while about 2 in 10 think the opposite.

Most don't know much about Vance

The survey was conducted before Trump selected freshman Sen. JD Vance of Ohio as his running mate. It showed that for most Americans, Vance is still an unknown. Six in 10 don’t know enough about him to form an opinion, while 17% have a favorable view and 22% view him negatively.

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The poll of 1,253 adults was conducted July 11-15, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.