Biden's withdrawal from the US presidential race spells new uncertainty for Ukraine

KYIV, Ukraine — U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision to end his campaign for reelection brings a new element of uncertainty for Ukraine, which is struggling to fend off Russian military advances even as it worries about the future of American support.

The prospect of victory for former President Donald Trump, the Republican contender, has long concerned Kyiv, which fears he would choke off support and force Ukraine to sue for peace on terms that favor Russia. The Kremlin launched its full-scale invasion in early 2022, leading to more than two years of war.

But while the Democrats hope Biden’s decision to drop out and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris will inject energy into their campaign, it's unclear whether it makes Trump's defeat more likely. Officials in Moscow, widely thought to favor Trump, were noncommittal.

Kyiv resident Yulia Loginova said she found it impossible to predict how Biden's departure would affect Ukraine.

“I don’t know, honestly,” she said. “Surprises every day. But he did the right thing.”

Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, said Biden’s withdrawal “changes the narrative of the campaign,” but it’s too soon to say how much it will alter the dynamic of the presidential election.

“If it makes the Democrats more likely to win, then Ukraine’s happy,” he said. “I don’t think a Harris administration would be that different from a Biden administration.”

Ukraine may be facing tough times regardless of who wins. While the U.S. is Ukraine’s most crucial backer, under Biden it has sometimes been seen as a frustrating friend.

Standing in Kyiv’s Independence Square beside a sea of small Ukrainian flags left in tribute to those killed in the war, a solider said victory “is impossible without the support of the U.S.A., that is a fact. They have the largest number of weapons, influence and everything.”

Still, the soldier, who gave only his nickname, Sadik, in line with military rules, said that if the U.S. had provided more support, “the war would have ended a long time ago.”

But a new Trump administration would make things far worse, he added.

“If Trump wins, there will be little or no weapons,” he said, adding that he feared Ukraine would be forced into concessions to end the war, where the Kremlin’s troops are making gradual battlefield gains.

Trump has boasted that he could end the conflict within 24 hours, and Ukrainians think any such settlement would be on Russia’s terms.

Trump’s choice of Ohio Sen. JD Vance, an opponent of U.S. military aid to Ukraine, as vice-presidential running mate has triggered more alarm.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said during a visit to Britain last week that dealing with Trump would be hard work – but he added that Ukrainians aren’t “afraid of hard work.” Ukraine’s leader and Trump spoke by phone on Friday, a call both men described as good on social media platform X.

Zelenskyy thanked Biden for his “unwavering support” and “bold steps” during the war.

“The current situation in Ukraine and all of Europe is no less challenging, and we sincerely hope that America’s continued strong leadership will prevent Russian evil from succeeding or making its aggression pay off,” Zelenskyy wrote on X.

Yet Ukraine’s gratitude for U.S. support is tinged with frustration at its limitations.

As Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukraine’s cities and infrastructure, Zelenskyy’s government has pushed for the Biden administration to authorize the use of American-supplied weapons to strike deep inside Russia. Ukraine wants to target the sites, often far from the border, that Moscow uses to launch airborne attacks on Ukraine. Washington has not given permission out of concern the conflict could escalate.

“The Ukrainians are pretty disappointed with Biden,” said Edward Lucas, a senior adviser at the Center for European Policy Analysis. “Biden’s dithering has a price, paid in the destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure and the slaughter of Ukrainian civilians, and in unnecessary battlefield casualties.

“So although Trump might be worse … a continuation of the Biden line is already pretty grim.”

Several senior U.S. Democrats have quickly lined up to support Harris as the nominee. On foreign policy, her public statements have — unsurprisingly — been in lockstep with Biden’s. She told an audience at the Munich Security Conference in February that “President Joe Biden and I stand with Ukraine” and pledged the administration would “work to secure critical weapons and resources that Ukraine so badly needs.”

Heather Hurlburt, a former Biden administration official now with the Chatham House think tank, said Harris had been “very front and center in the Ukraine policy,” and would likely keep to the same course as Biden.

In Moscow, meanwhile, officials suggested Biden’s departure would not deter them from their goals in the war and offered no opinion on whether it would make a difference to icy Russia-U.S. relations — though Trump and President Vladimir Putin have traded praise over the years.

”It’s not our business to assess the U.S. president’s decisions,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. “This is something the U.S. voters should be concerned about.”

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, said on the Telegram messaging app that Biden's departure wouldn't change Russia's strategy in Ukraine.

“The goals of the special military operation will be achieved,” he added, using the Kremlin’s term for the war.

Ukraine and America’s other allies also worry the U.S. could grow less dependable regardless of who wins. With a divided electorate and Congress, the next president could easily become consumed by domestic challenges before even reckoning with multiple flashpoints around the world. Gridlock in Congress that stalled a $61 billion package of military aid to Ukraine for months before it was finally approved brought home the precariousness of the situation.

In Kyiv, Ukrainians absorbed the latest twist in a U.S. election that may determine their country’s future.

“I love Biden because he supported Ukraine,” said Mykyta Kolesnikov, who manages a car wash business. “He sent us important assistance for the war when we needed it.”

But Kolesnikov, 21, said he understood that Biden had to step aside and just hoped the Democrats would field a stronger candidate.

“Zelenskyy says that he can work with Trump, but it will be very hard for Ukraine to work with Trump and his team,” Kolesnikov said.