European leaders seek to chart a common future at summit but all eyes are glued on Washington

BUDAPEST, Hungary — Dozens of European leaders will be gingerly seeking to chart a more common future during a one-day summit in Hungary's capital on Thursday. Yet despite myriad economic challenges and two wars in the neighborhood, all eyes will be glued on Washington to see whether the pivotal U.S. election will cause a political rift throughout the continent.

The transatlantic relationship will doubtless change after the vote, leaders and experts have said. But the question is whether that change will be gradual under Kamala Harris or possibly seismic under Donald Trump.

The impact of the U.S. results could be felt for years to come, on issues including the war in Ukraine, the European Union's trade relations with the rest of the world, migration, the Middle East conflict and climate change.

“All this is putting peace, stability and prosperity at risk in our region,” said the invitation letter to the leaders of the European Political Community, which unites almost 50 nations in Europe and its near abroad, bar Russia and Belarus.

Among the leaders likely to attend on Thursday is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who is expected to make another plea for more aid as his country fends off Moscow's invasion. The timing is laden with significance as Trump has vowed to end the war “within 24 hours” of being elected — something leaders in Kyiv interpret as an impending evaporation of U.S. support should Trump win.

Orbán makes plain his support for Trump

Not so long ago, such a meeting — which is also expected to include leaders from non-EU countries like Turkey, Serbia and the United Kingdom — would end with praise for European unity and a common political direction. Yet with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the host of the summit, friction is as good as assured.

Orbán, who has openly thrown his weight behind Trump and argued the former president is a “man of peace,” has predicted a Trump victory and suggested that civil and criminal cases against him were the result of a politically motivated Department of Justice — a common Trump refrain.

Having played the obstructionist for years within the 27-nation EU, Orbán now holds the bloc's rotating presidency, giving him a more prominent platform and making him the host of Thursday's EPC summit, as well as another gathering of EU leaders on Friday.

The presidency under Orbán caused turmoil from day one, when he declared “Make Europe Great Again” the motto of his six months in charge. It was a strikingly clear reference to his affection for Trump, which he followed up with unannounced visits to Moscow and Beijing, angering EU leaders who said he was not acting on their behalf.

In response to Orbán's self-styled “peace mission,” many EU countries began boycotting presidency meetings in Budapest, or sending only lower-level bureaucrats rather than ministers. However, no boycotts are expected for this week's summits.

While Orbán has cast the result of U.S. elections as determinative of Europe's future — he's even delayed passing Hungary's 2025 national budget until after a new president is elected — not all EU leaders are comfortable with the bloc's fate being so tightly bound up with the movements of American politics.

Donald Tusk, the center-right prime minister of Poland, said Europe must forge a more independent path that is less sensitive to changes across the Atlantic.

"Some claim that the future of Europe depends on the American elections, while it depends first and foremost on us, on the condition that Europe finally grows up and believes in its own strength," Tusk said in the days ahead of the summit. “Whatever the outcome, the era of geopolitical outsourcing is over.”