Ouster of Bangladesh's prime minister will test India's regional power, with Beijing's on the rise

NEW DELHI — The dramatic resignation of Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina poses a dilemma for India’s government, and the South Asian powerhouse could even see its influence in the region wane, according to experts.

During her 15-year rule, Hasina cultivated deep ties with India, her biggest backer, as she oversaw an economic boom and drew the two countries closer on business, energy and defense. Bangladesh is India’s biggest trade partner in South Asia, with bilateral trade of just under $16 billion.

“India will need much political and diplomatic skill in dealing with the consequences of the fall of Sheikh Hasina, which could rattle the geopolitics of the subcontinent, if not reshape it,” C. Raja Mohan, a foreign affairs expert, told The Associated Press.

Bangladesh under Hasina, the country's longest-serving prime minister, was also a safe bet security-wise for India: The 76-year-old was regarded as a secular leader, in the Muslim-majority nation of 170 million, who clamped down on anti-India insurgents. She tamed rising threats of Islamic militancy and kept the military in their barracks in a country with a history of army takeovers.

This made Hasina’s Bangladesh a critical partner to Prime Minister Narendra Modi as the region became increasingly tense with an assertive China at the Himalayan borders, and longtime rival Pakistan with which India fought three wars. Her resignation has left a power vacuum that could be filled by a new government more friendly to China and Pakistan, analysts say, posing a challenge to Modi’s efforts to make India a regional power, especially as border disputes drag on and heighten tensions with both.

Hasina's Bangladesh was a crucial ally to India in maintaining regional stability, especially as other countries in South Asia have slowly drifted towards China, like Nepal which now has a government more amenable to aligning with Beijing’s interests. India also faces a similar situation with the Maldives — as it swapped its India-leaning leader with a pro-China one — and Sri Lanka where China's influence remains considerable.

Even though Hasina bolstered ties with New Delhi, she also maintained strong relations with Beijing which has bankrolled a slew of projects in Bangladesh. China is likely to continue to be a critical financial supporter of Bangladesh, especially amid growing economic distress, according to Teneo, a global consulting and advisory firm.

“The fall of Hasina’s government raises the possibility of Bangladesh realigning itself with China,” the firm added in a note.

For the ousted prime minister, India has always been a safe haven. Hasina lived in exile in New Delhi after nearly her entire family was assassinated in 1975, including her father who was Bangladesh's first leader after gaining independence from Pakistan. She landed again in India Monday night after she was chased out of her country. It’s not clear if Hasina will remain there.

The protests started peacefully with students demanding an end to a quota system for government jobs but later descended into violence and grew into a broader rebellion against Hasina. Critics say Hasina's heavy-handed approach to muzzling the protests, where at least 300 people died, according to media reports, escalated tensions, leading to her ouster.

Western nations had previously expressed concerns over violations of human rights and press freedoms under Hasina's rule. In January, after she won a fourth consecutive term, the U.S. and the United Kingdom said the polls were not credible, free and fair.

One of the main issues of concern following her resignation is the status of the Hindu minority in Bangladesh, which makes up nearly 8% of Bangladesh’s population, according to a 2022 census. Some are worried they could come under attack for being seen as her supporters. They have been targeted in the past during political unrest, especially with the rise of Islamic groups in the 1990s which Hasina helped quash.

“The recent protest movement did have a strong anti-India flavor, primarily because the protesters saw India as a strong backer of Hasina,” said Subir Bhaumik, a columnist and commentator.

On Tuesday, India’s foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said: “What was particularly worrying was that minorities, their businesses and temples also came under attack at multiple locations," he said. "The full extent of this is still not clear."

Jaishankar was referring to reports that had surfaced about attacks targeting minorities following Hasina's ouster. However, they couldn't be independently verified.

Approximately 19,000 Indian nationals live in Bangladesh, including 9,000 students — many of whom have left Bangladesh following the protests, according to the Indian foreign minister.

Following Hasina's escape, Bangladesh's president dissolved Parliament, clearing the way for an interim administration and new elections. Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus will head Bangladesh’s interim government.

But uncertainties in Bangladesh as it tries to rebuild a new government and chart its way forward will be felt in India.

New Delhi would be concerned if the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, the main opposition to Hasina, were to gain power, given its history of supporting insurgent groups in India’s northeastern states and ties with Pakistan, Teneo, the consulting firm, wrote in its note.

The foreign affairs expert, Raja Mohan, agrees: “Whether intended or not, New Delhi is far too closely identified with Hasina and the mounting hatred against her is bound to rub off against India."