Israel and Hamas appear close to a ceasefire deal. These are the sticking points

CAIRO — Israel and Hamas appear closer than they have been in months to agreeing to a ceasefire that could wind down the 14-month war in Gaza and bring home dozens of people held hostage there.

But the sides have come close before, only to have talks collapse over various disagreements. This round of negotiations also faces hurdles.

The agreement would take place in phases and include a halt in fighting, an exchange of captive Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, and a surge in aid to the besieged Gaza Strip, according to Egyptian, Hamas and American officials. The last phase would include the release of any remaining hostages, an end to the war and talks on reconstruction.

Although Israel and Hamas have expressed optimism that a deal is close, key sticking points remain over the exchange of hostages for prisoners and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, people involved in the talks say.

“They are working through the names of hostages who would come out in the first phase — the names of the prisoners that would be released as part of the exchange. And then some specific details about the disposition of Israeli forces during the ceasefire,” White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Wednesday on MSNBC's “Morning Joe."

Here’s a closer look at the key issues holding up a deal:

Hostage release

During its Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel, Hamas and other groups took about 250 people hostages and brought them to Gaza. A previous truce in November 2023 freed more than 100 hostages, while others have been rescued or their remains have been recovered over the past year.

Israel says about 100 hostages remain in Gaza — at least a third of whom it believes were killed during the Oct. 7 attack or died in captivity.

The warring sides are haggling over which hostages would be included in an initial release, according to the Egyptian and Hamas officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were discussing ongoing negotiations. There have also been disputes about how many hostages will be included, Israeli media reported..

The first batch is expected to be made up mostly of women, older people and people with medical conditions.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also is facing growing pressure from the families of hostages to secure a deal that would release all of them at once. They fear the deal could break down or that loved ones who aren't immediately released could die in captivity.

Palestinian prisoners

As part of the deal, Israel is expected to free hundreds of imprisoned Palestinians, including dozens who were convicted in bloody attacks.

Israel has a history of lopsided prisoner releases, and hundreds were freed in the November 2023 deal. But the officials who spoke to the AP say the sides still disagree over the exact number and names of the prisoners to be freed. Hamas wants high-profile prisoners included.

Netanyahu's governing coalition includes hardliners who oppose such releases, with some even pledging to quit the government if too many concessions are made. They point to a 2011 prisoner release that included the former Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, a mastermind of the Oct. 7 attacks who was killed by Israel in October.

Israeli media have also reported that there are differences over whether the more serious prisoners who are released will be exiled to third countries.

Palestinians returning home

The war has displaced an estimated 90% of Gaza’s 2.3 million people, according to U.N. estimates, with the hard-hit northern sector of the territory largely emptied of its prewar population.

During the first phase of the developing deal, Israel is expected to withdraw troops from Palestinian population centers and allow some of the displaced to return home. But the extent of the pullback and the number of people allowed to return must still be worked out, the officials say.

According to the Egyptian and Hamas officials, Israel is prepared to allow people to return north to Gaza City, the territory's largest city. But it does not want people to return farther north to areas close to the Israeli border.

Israeli troops remain active in these areas, battling what Israel says are pockets of insurgency. Israel appears concerned that militants could renew attacks from there if the displaced are allowed to return.

But critics say Israel has other intentions. Netanyahu has considered a controversial proposal by former generals to empty the north and cut it off from humanitarian aid as part of a plan to starve out any militants who remain there. Moshe Yaalon, a former Israeli defense minister, said Israel was carrying out ethnic cleansing in those areas of northern Gaza.

Netanyahu has also said Israel must maintain long-term control over a strategic strip of land along Gaza's border with Egypt, as well as the freedom for Israeli troops to operate against militants in the future. Hamas is demanding a full withdrawal as part of any ceasefire.

In an interview Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. remains hopeful that a deal can be finalized before President Joe Biden leaves office on Jan. 20.

“Everyone is pushing on this,” Blinken told MSNBC. “We want to get it over the finish line. We want to get the hostages home. We want to get a ceasefire so that people can finally have relief in Gaza.”