New face may close enthusiasm gap among Democratic voters, pollsters say

Presidential campaign issues largely won’t change much, but a new face could give Democrats a chance to bridge an enthusiasm gap with some of the party’s key voter groups — women, African Americans and young people, as well as swing voters — that developed under President Joe Biden, pollsters said.

"There was weakening among young voters for Biden. There was a weakening among Black voters and there was some weakening among women," Siena College pollster Don Levy said.

Vice President Kamala Harris, who is rapidly locking up support to run for president, "will have a chance to speak to those groups," Levy said.

It’s all still under the heading of "maybe" and "potentially" as the Democrats sort out their new ticket, hold their convention next month and then map a strategy to win swing states. 

Biden endorsed Harris to take on Republican nominee Donald Trump, and many Democrat leaders have coalesced behind her.

On Tuesday, the Democratic congressional leaders, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, endorsed Harris. She also received endorsements from some of her potential rivals for the nomination, such as Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.

The Democratic National Convention is slated for Aug. 19-21 in Chicago, where the nomination formally will be voted on by just under 4,000 delegates. Democratic officials say they want to pick a candidate by Aug. 7, in part because some states have August deadlines for getting on the November ballot.

The Associated Press reported Harris has secured the support of 3,004 convention delegates — far more than the 1,976 needed for a majority.

Harris could bring new energy to the ticket but also carry some downsides, analysts said.

Levy and others said many campaign issues will remain the same: economy, jobs, abortion, immigration, foreign policy/Russia, democracy/rule of law. But a new candidate can change the dynamic of how issues are viewed and which ones are effective, he said.

"We’ve been locked into this Biden-Trump matchup for so long. Now, it’s all different," Levy said. "Those questions that were dragging Biden down — questions about his age, his acuity, his stamina — that’s all gone in an instant."

As an example of Biden’s weakening, Siena’s latest survey of New York voters gave Biden an 8-point lead — relatively small for a Democrat in such a heavily blue state.

Further, Siena found Trump 3 points ahead of Biden in Pennsylvania — a state Democrats need to take to win the Electoral College.

Marist College pollster Lee Miringoff struck a similar chord.

"You have a huge reset going on," he said. Among the changes, he said Biden’s withdrawal means "Donald Trump is now the old guy in the race."

As Harris emerges as the nominee, Miringoff said: "The issues all remain. But when you move from vice president to presidential candidate, you can choose what part of the Biden record is yours and which parts you want to disinherit."

Any polls about Harris as vice president before this week aren’t worth much because becoming the actual presidential candidate changes the whole dynamic, analysts said.

Miringoff said: "Republicans can say she’s part of a failed Biden administration. But it’s all different now because Democrats are energized."

Already, Republican campaigns are urging their candidates to call Harris "too liberal," according to multiple reports Monday.

"They're going to try to say 'California liberal,' but that's not going to be easy. She ran the second-largest prosecutor's office in the country," veteran Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf said, referring to Harris' time as California attorney general and San Francisco district attorney.

"But the downside for Harris is she has to prove she's commander in chief," Sheinkopf said. "She's going to have to defend her record on immigration and migrants."

Republicans took Biden's decision as "not good news" because they had been looking forward to running against Democrats with Biden atop the ticket, according to Republican strategist Michael Dawidziak. He believes, though, switching to Harris won't change the dynamic much for GOP candidates.

"If it’s Harris, I don’t think they are too upset," Dawidziak said.

Like Siena, Marist surveys similarly found Biden not faring as well with minorities and young voters. Miringoff added to the list "independents" — voters not affiliated with any party — and swing voters, those who don't always vote for one party or another.

"I think Democrats will find they can get a better share of the likely [swing] voters because Biden was sputtering," Miringoff said.

But he said there’s one group where Harris might not fare as well as Biden: "Disaffected Republicans" who supported Biden because they dislike Trump.

Then, there are the "double haters" — voters who disliked Trump and Biden. These voters tend to be "less engaged" in following campaigns and actually casting a ballot than the average voter. Siena estimated "double haters" might account for about 18% of voters nationally.

Biden won this group by about 20 percentage points in 2020, but his lead was down to seven points this summer. With Biden out, the numbers could change.

"Harris should do better among ‘double haters’ than Biden," Miringoff said. "Although she has some negatives, they are nothing like Biden’s was."

With wire reports

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy