Why AP called New York's 16th District for George Latimer over Rep. Jamaal Bowman

WASHINGTON — Democrat George Latimer defeated U.S. Rep. Jamaal Bowman in New York’s 16th Congressional District on the strength of his showing in vote-rich Westchester County, according to an Associated Press analysis of initial vote results.

The result marks the first primary defeat this year of a Democratic U.S. House incumbent.

Here’s a look at how the AP determined the winner:

U.S. House, New York’s 16th District (D)

CANDIDATES: Bowman, Latimer

WINNER: Latimer

CALLED AT: 9:38 p.m. ET

POLL CLOSING TIME: 9 p.m. ET

ABOUT THE RACE: The heated primary highlights a deep division within the Democratic Party over the Israel-Hamas War. Bowman, a former middle school principal who was seeking a third congressional term, has been one of the U.S. House's most vocal critics of the Biden administration for its support of Israel in what he's described as genocide in Gaza. The contest attracted the attention of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, whose super PAC has spent nearly $15 million in the race to defeat Bowman. Latimer, the two-term Westchester County executive and former state Assemblyman, ran in part on his support of Israel and backed President Joe Biden's agenda. The 16th Congressional District in New York City’s northern suburbs is made up mostly of southern Westchester County and includes a small portion of the Bronx.

WHY AP CALLED THE RACE: Bowman began the night with a lead in the vote count as the first vote results were reported from the Bronx. He would maintain an overwhelming advantage in the Bronx throughout the night, but Latimer quickly took the lead when Westchester County began reporting early voting results. At the time AP called the race, Latimer held a 26-point lead in Westchester with almost half of the county's estimated vote tabulated. Westchester accounts for about 90% of the district's population. Latimer was also ahead in the district's moderately Democratic areas, which make up most of the district, while Bowman was far ahead in the district's most heavily Democratic areas. To win, Bowman would need to significantly outperform Latimer among the district's remaining votes. While that was likely in the Bronx, he had too large of a vote deficit to overcome in Westchester.

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Associated Press writers Maya Sweedler and Leah Askarinam in Washington contributed to this report.