Moldova's diaspora tipped the scales in a pivotal election. Critics question the vote's validity

CHISINAU, Moldova — Moldovans living abroad voted in record numbers in a presidential runoff that secured victory for pro-Western President Maia Sandu, in a pivotal race that pitted her against a Russia-friendly opponent amid ongoing claims of Russian interference, voter fraud, and intimidation.

Sandu's win, on a campaign promise to advance Moldova's candidacy for European Union membership, was a major boon for the pro-Western government, which strongly backed her candidacy.

However, her opponents claim her victory relied too much on Moldovans living outside the country — which has a population of about 2.5 million, excluding expatriates — to be considered legitimate.

With 100% of ballots counted in the second round of Sunday's presidential election, Sandu obtained 55.33% of the vote, according to the Central Electoral Commission, compared to 44.67% for Alexandr Stoianoglo, who was backed by the pro-Russia Party of Socialists.

A record number of 327,000 voters cast ballots abroad in the runoff, more than 82% of whom favored Sandu. But inside Moldova, Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor general, obtained 51.3% of the vote, compared to Sandu's 48.67%.

Although the former Soviet republic signed a deal with the EU in 2014 to forge closer political and economic ties, years of rampant corruption and lack of reform hindered development, and an exodus of hundreds of thousands of citizens sought better futures abroad.

Former president Igor Dodon, the leader of the pro-Moscow Party of Socialists, was quick to question Sandu’s electoral victory by telling Russia’s state news agency, TASS, that she has become “a president of the diaspora” and suggested it undermined the vote, noting Stoianoglo “won the presidential elections inside the country.”

Dodon's party stated in a post on social media on Monday that it did not recognize the results, calling Sandu “an illegitimate president, recognized only by her sponsors and supporters abroad” and claimed Moldovans “feel betrayed and robbed."

Cristian Cantir, a Moldovan associate professor of international relations at Oakland University, told The Associated Press that the reaction from pro-Moscow politicians “was to be expected” since they have “criticized the diaspora vote in the past, especially votes by Moldovans" residing in Western countries.

“This message about illegitimacy and the diaspora will be used to amplify one specific Kremlin talking point," he said, “that pro-EU politicians aren’t actually popular in Moldova, and that they’re only staying in power with support from the diaspora in the West, as well as Western countries.”

Moldova's diaspora also played a key role in a national referendum on Oct. 20, when a razor-thin majority of 50.35% voted to secure Moldova’s path toward EU membership. Like Georgia and neighboring Ukraine, Moldova aspires to join the EU but is caught in a constant geopolitical tug between Moscow and the West.

In a victory statement early Monday, Sandu told voters they had “given a lesson in democracy, worthy of being written in history books” and also noted the significant role the diaspora played in her reelection.

“Our diaspora has given us yet another lesson today, one that we should all learn from,” said Sandu, a former World Bank official. “Moldovans abroad have shown once again that Moldova beats as strongly in their hearts as it does in ours back home.”

She also went on to say that the vote had been overshadowed by an “unprecedented attack” through alleged schemes including dirty money, vote-buying, and electoral interference “by hostile forces from outside the country” and criminal groups.

The results of both the October ballots and Sunday’s runoff were indeed dogged by allegations of a major vote-buying scheme, Russian interference, and voter intimidation — which exposed Moldova’s judiciary as unable to adequately protect the democratic process.

In the wake of the two October votes, Moldovan law enforcement said that a vote-buying scheme was orchestrated by Ilan Shor, an exiled oligarch who lives in Russia and was convicted in absentia last year of fraud and money laundering. Shor denies any wrongdoing.

Prosecutors say $39 million was paid to more than 130,000 recipients through an internationally sanctioned Russian bank to voters between September and October. Anti-corruption authorities have conducted hundreds of searches and seized over $2.7 million (2.5 million euros) in cash as they attempt to crack down.

On Monday, U.S. President Joe Biden congratulated Sandu on her “historic reelection” and said Moldovans favored her “vision for a secure, prosperous, and democratic" country. He also addressed allegations of Russian meddling.

“For months, Russia sought to undermine Moldova’s democratic institutions and election processes. But Russia failed," he said. “The Moldovan people have exercised their democratic right to choose their own future, and they have chosen to pursue a path aligned with Europe and democracies everywhere.”

The EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, also said Sandu won “despite unprecedented interference by Russia, including with vote-buying schemes and disinformation,” which he said had “sought to undermine the country’s democratic institutions and its EU path.”

“I hope the government will understand the results, especially the one obtained on Moldovan soil that was a negative one for them, both in the referendum and the presidential election,” 20-year-old student Artur, who did not give his surname, said in Chisinau on Monday, referring to the more than 50% support for Stoianoglo from voters within Moldova. “Maybe they’ll change things for the wellbeing of Moldova.”

In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moldova applied to join the EU. It was granted candidate status in June of that year, and in summer 2024, Brussels agreed to start membership negotiations. The sharp westward shift irked Moscow and significantly soured relations with Chisinau.

The pro-Western government led by the Party of Action and Solidarity has been in power in Moldova since 2021, and a parliamentary election will be held in 2025. Moldova watchers warn that next year’s vote could be Moscow’s main target.

Mihai Mogaldea, the deputy director at the Chisinau-based Institute for European Policies and Reforms think tank, told the AP on Monday that the EU should focus on extending more funds to Moldova to “produce an immediate effect on people’s lives.”

“We must understand that we only won a battle,” he said, “and the war will continue till after the parliamentary election — and actually that’s where all Russia’s bets are on.”