Why post-election violence in Mozambique is a concern for Southern Africa

JOHANNESBURG — A deepening political and social crisis in Mozambique will top the agenda of a regional summit this week called after the result of Oct. 9 elections led to weeks of violent protests and prompted the losing candidate to dispute the outcome.

At least 30 people are reported to have died during the post-election violence which flared following the victory of the ruling Front for the Liberation of Mozambique (Frelimo) candidate Daniel Chapo.

Venancio Mondlane, the independent candidate who came second with 20% of the national vote, has challenged the result and is calling for nationwide protests. International observers have cited irregularities in the election.

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is holding a summit from Nov. 16 to 20 in Harare to discuss the situation in Mozambique.

Here’s why the issue is a concern for the wider region:

Election credibility

Mozambique’s disputed election result comes as several of its neighbors hold their own polls.

In Botswana, the ruling party was removed from power after 58 years in Oct. 30 polling and a smooth transfer of power took place within days.

In May, the ruling party in South Africa lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since 1994 and within weeks had formed a unity government with opposition parties.

Mauritius held elections on Nov. 10 in which the ruling party lost by a landslide. Namibia is expected to go to the polls later this month.

The European Union’s observer team has alleged irregularities in Mozambique’s election, including the altering of some results.

Zimbabwe’s 2023 elections were criticized by international observers over alleged irregularities. The European Union’s Election Observation Mission said the pre-polling environment and election day fell short of regional and international standards.

Regional trade

Mozambique, which gained independence from Portugal in 1975, is a crucial part of regional trade in Southern Africa, sharing borders with South Africa, Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Eswatini.

Instability in the country risks spilling over its border and creating problems for its neighbors, many of whom are dealing with the domestic challenges related to illegal migration.

South Africa closed its side of the Lebombo border that it shares with Mozambique in the wake of the recent protests. South Africa uses the Maputo harbor in Mozambique for some exports and the closure resulted in trucks transporting minerals to the harbor being stranded.

South Africa’s freight and rail association estimated that the closure of the border cost the South African economy at least 10 million rand ($550,000) each day that the border is closed.

The Minerals Council of South Africa estimates that 53% of the chrome ore and concentrate exported by South Africa in 2023 was exported through Maputo.

Mozambique has an abundance of mineral resources and its 2010 discovery of natural gas is expected to reignite its economy as it looks to be more involved with its neighbors in the energy sector.

Political stability

Mozambique is still suffering from the effects of a 15-year civil war that ended in 1992 during which the leftist Frelimo fought against rebel movement Renamo.

The Oct. 9 election was the country’s first since 1994 to have no armed groups connected to any political party after a process to disarm militias. Mozambique has been fighting an Islamic State-affiliated group that has launched attacks on communities in the northern province of Cabo Delgado since 2017.

Around 600,000 of the 1.3 million people who fled have since returned home, many to shattered communities where houses, markets, churches, schools and health facilities have been destroyed, the United Nations said earlier this year.

Neighboring countries still host Mozambicans seeking work and economic opportunities, which means any further instability is likely to exacerbate further migration.