AP Decision Notes: What to expect in New Jersey on Election Day

WASHINGTON — After a dramatic primary, New Jersey voters turn to the Nov. 5 general election to resolve several races for federal offices up and down the state.

Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, Republican former President Donald Trump and seven third-party candidates will compete for the state’s 14 electoral votes in the race to replace outgoing Democratic President Joe Biden.

New Jersey has favored the Democrat in presidential elections since 1992. In 2020, Biden carried the state with 57% of the vote; in 2016, Clinton carried it with 55%. Nonetheless, the Garden State was home to more post-primaries presidential campaign activity than in previous years, thanks to Trump. In May, he held a rally in Wildwood on the Jersey Shore, in between New York court appearances. In August, he held a press conference at his Bedminster golf club just ahead of the Democratic National Convention.

In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic U.S. Rep. Andy Kim and Republican Curtis Bashaw are vying to fill the open seat that former Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez vacated following his conviction on bribery charges. Kim is a three-term congressman from the 3rd District, and Bashaw is a hotel developer and first-time candidate from southern New Jersey. Four independent candidates also are on the ballot.

Since 2000, Democrats have had an average margin of victory of about 12 points in New Jersey’s U.S. Senate elections. The last two New Jersey Republicans to serve in the U.S. Senate were both appointed to the position and served only a few months each. New Jersey's most recent elected Republican senator left office in 1979.

Among the U.S. House races of interest is the 7th District seat that includes Trump’s Bedminster golf club. Republican Tom Kean Jr. is seeking a second term against Democrat Sue Altman, a former leader of the state’s progressive Working Families Alliance. Kean is the son, grandson and great-grandson of former New Jersey elected officials. In the 8th District, Democrat Rob Menendez, son of the recently resigned senator, is seeking a second term against Republican Anthony Valdes.

Early in-person voting was only recently enacted in New Jersey. Early in-person and mail ballots accounted for 30% of the vote in 2022. The first vote counts released on election night are expected to be a combination of those advance votes. Votes uncounted on election night can average 5-6%, higher in Cumberland and Bergen counties.

The urban north is by far the state’s most Democratic region, while the Northwest is the most Republican.

Here’s a look at what to expect in the 2024 election in New Jersey:

Election Day

Nov. 5.

Poll closing time

8 p.m. ET.

Presidential electoral votes

14 awarded to statewide winner.

Key races and candidates

President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (independent) vs. Jill Stein (Green) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) and four others.

U.S. Senate: Kim (D) vs. Bashaw (R) and four others.

Other races of interest

U.S. House.

Past presidential results

2020: Biden (D) 57%, Trump (R) 41%, AP race call: Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020, 8 p.m. ET.

Voter registration and turnout

Registered voters: 6,659,963 (as of Oct. 1, 2024). About 38% Democrats, 24% Republicans and 37% unaffiliated.

Voter turnout in 2020 presidential election: 70% of registered voters.

Pre-Election Day voting

Votes cast before Election Day 2020: about 93% of the total vote.

Votes cast before Election Day 2022: about 30% of the total vote.

Votes cast before Election Day 2024: See AP Advance Vote tracker.

How long does vote-counting take?

First votes reported, Nov. 3, 2020: 8:18 p.m. ET.

By midnight ET: about 32% of total votes cast were reported.

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AP writer Maya Sweedler contributed to this report.