A violent showdown in Pakistan's capital pits the government against Imran Khan supporters

ISLAMABAD — Thousands of people are in the heart of Pakistan’s capital to demand the release of imprisoned former premier Imran Khan. He has been behind bars since August 2023 on charges that he and his supporters say are politically motivated.

Authorities have deployed thousands of security personnel to seal off the city, suspended phone services, used tear gas and threatened to fire live rounds.

It’s the second time in as many months that the government has shut down Islamabad and mobilized massive resources to contain Khan’s supporters.

Here is what's behind the turmoil:

Khan’s star power is undimmed even from prison

Cricket legend Khan can mobilize huge rallies and whip crowds into a frenzy with his claim that he was ousted from power in a conspiracy hatched by the U.S. and his archrival, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Sharif and Washington deny it.

Khan presents himself as an outsider victimized by the establishment. His opponents say he is a corrupt demagogue who incites violence. Although incarcerated on several charges, Khan has successfully used social media and even AI to communicate with people across Pakistan. And they turn out in droves, bringing cities to a standstill.

Khan’s wife is out of prison and leading the march

Khan’s wife Bushra Bibi is leading the march, adding a dynamism that was missing from previous protests. She was held in a high-security prison on graft charges until a few weeks ago, when she was released on bail.

Her presence in a convoy of vehicles, coupled with rare public addresses to adoring crowds, has been a huge factor in attracting supporters in her husband’s absence. The spiritual healer has been the driving force behind the latest protest, insisting that she lead it from the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to Islamabad.

Bibi is Khan’s third wife. The government alleged that she and Khan violated a law that says a woman must wait three months before marrying again. She was previously married to a man who claimed that they divorced in November 2017, less than three months before she married Khan. Bibi has said they divorced in August 2017.

Her conviction and imprisonment outraged women and rights groups in Pakistan, broadening her appeal beyond Khan’s political base.

The government is failing to contain massive unrest

Shelling. Threat of live fire. Beatings. None of these tactics are deterring Khan’s supporters.

Authorities have tried to stop them from entering the capital and failed. On Tuesday, they closed in on Islamabad’s Red Zone, which houses key government buildings and is the stated destination for the rally.

The Interior Ministry said that police can decide on the level of force needed to deal with protesters. Up to now, police have exercised restraint. The apparent shoot-on-sight order heightens the likelihood of casualties and raises the spectre of widespread violence.

The unrest coincides with a visit from Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who is staying in the Red Zone.

The turmoil and violence could last for days

Pakistan and its capital are no strangers to upheaval and violence. But the last two pro-Khan rallies have seen a strong response from the government and an even stronger pushback from Khan’s political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf.

The economic cost each day of even partial lockdowns runs into hundreds of millions of dollars, losses that the cash-strapped country cannot afford.

The government refuses to give into demands for Khan’s release because of his immense popularity and the threat he poses to the ruling elite.

Khan’s supporters, meanwhile, pledge to do whatever it takes to get him out of prison and back into power, even if it means risking their lives.