What happens next now that court has told NY to redraw congressional districts?

ALBANY — Get ready for another round of redistricting.

New York’s top court has ordered the state to discard its 2022 map establishing boundaries for its 26 congressional districts and start over.

And there is not much time to get the job done: Congressional primaries are set for June.

Here’s a look at what happened and what’s next.

Court ruling

The Court of Appeals issued a 4-3 decision Tuesday declaring that the court-ordered map for the 2022 elections was a temporary fix brought on by oncoming elections and not meant to be kept in place until the next U.S. Census.

The proper procedure, per state law, is for a map to be proposed by a bipartisan redistricting panel and accepted or rejected by the State Legislature, the court said.

“The Constitution demands that process, not districts drawn by courts,” Chief Judge Rowan Wilson wrote for the majority.

High stakes

District boundaries can be crucial factors in what party wins the congressional seat. And with Republicans holding a narrow edge in the House of Representatives, flipping a few seats in New York — or elsewhere — in 2024 could change the balance of power.

For instance, Republican flipped seats in Nassau County and the Hudson Valley in 2022, helping the party gain control in Washington.

Next step

The court ordered the bipartisan Independent Redistricting Commission to begin working on a map proposal and set a Feb. 28 deadline.

That’s considered the drop-dead date, though it could be much sooner. Insiders said that if the process takes that long, changes might have to be considered for the primary schedule or the petition requirement for qualifying for the primary.

Charles Nesbitt, the Republican vice chairman of the panel and former state assemblyman, said Wednesday he’s already talked with Ken Jenkins, the panel’s Democratic chairman, and is optimistic the commission can move quickly. Jenkins said similar things in a statement.

The commission — five Republicans and five Democrats — must first agree on an action plan for proceeding, then begin review maps and data, and finally vote on a proposed map.

Importantly, the commission doesn’t have to hold a new round of public hearings, the Court of Appeals ruled, saying the ones conducted following the 2020 Census were sufficient.

Gridlock again?

When the commission met in 2022, Republicans and Democrats proposed different maps, which the Legislature voted down. Then the commission failed to do what it was supposed to do: Propose at least one more map for the Legislature to consider.

That’s part of why the courts jumped in, siding with a Republican lawsuit and appointing a special master to draw the 2022 map. Perhaps more importantly, the map the Democratic-led Legislature tried to impose was found to be illegally gerrymandered, or skewed, to help Democrats.

In the aftermath, Democrats said Republican commissioners purposely wouldn’t negotiate a second map to help set up the lawsuit — in short, commission gridlock benefited the GOP.

That could happen again, said one watchdog.

“Frankly, I don’t see why Republicans would agree on anything,” said Blair Horner, executive director of the New York Public Interest Research Group, noting that once the commission finishes its work, the Democratic-controlled Legislature takes over.

“Control of the House could hinge on what happens in New York and, because the stakes are so high, there’s no incentive to come to an agreement,” Horner said.

Horner said the composition of the commission is its “fatal flaw” — not only because it sets up 5-5 votes but also because the members are political appointees of the parties and not truly independent.

If gridlock prevails, the courts could step in again — and that could be the GOP’s preferable option to letting the State Legislature have the final say.

Nesbitt said he’s not approaching it that way.

“I think there’s a good chance we come together on a map and I’m certainly going to approach it that way,” Nesbitt told Newsday. 

Map changes?

There are bound to be some changes in some districts. Whether it's New York or Texas, the party controlling the state legislature tries to use redistricting to its benefit without running afoul of federal voting protections.

The extent of the pending rewrite is the question.

For instance, the 3rd Congressional District — home of the recently expelled Rep. George Santos — is 80% Nassau County voters, 20% Queens. Could the district include more or fewer Queens voters? Could it be shifted away from Massapequa and instead run along the "Sound Shore" into Suffolk County as it once did?

In 2022, Democrats proposed running it along the Sound into Westchester County. That triggered widespread criticism and probably won’t be proposed again. But overall statewide status quo isn’t likely, either.

Republican Nesbitt believes New York’s current, court-ordered map must be taken into account and that might limit large-scale changes.

“The current map has not been challenged for legality, just the procedure by which it was derived,” Nesbitt said. “So I think that’s a factor.”

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy