NY Democrats expect a bounce from Biden's decision not to run

New York Democrats clearly believe they will get a bounce from President Joe Biden’s decision not to seek reelection, saying Sunday that a new ticket will reverse what had been a "palpable" lack of excitement.

Striking a similar note, a veteran Republican strategist said GOP candidates in New York view Biden’s decision as "not good news" for them — though the full impact hinges on the new Democratic ticket and unity.

It might be one of the few times the parties agree these days.

Biden, following a drumbeat of calls from fellow Democrats concerned about his age, announced he will end his campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to take on Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, the former president. Some Democrats want a wide consideration of other potential candidates.

For now, the 81-year-old Biden’s decision changes a national campaign in ways not seen in decades — since 1968 when President Lyndon B. Johnson decided not to run, veteran campaigners say — and shifts dynamics in New York, too.

"I think that any of the people who are currently under consideration to be our nominee will do well in New York. I think one thing is for certain: Whoever the nominee is, this will excite and energize Democratic voters across the state," Jay Jacobs, the state and Nassau County Democratic chairman, said on Sunday.

He acknowledged Biden’s campaign was raising concerns — which could have impacted down-ballot Democrats, especially in congressional swing districts on Long Island and upstate.

"I think there was a lack of excitement about President Biden’s candidacy, which was palpable," Jacobs said. "They love Joe Biden and felt he served well as president, but they didn’t feel he had the vitality at the level we need in this election and that created a great deal of nervousness."

On Sunday afternoon, he said, his phone was humming nonstop and he sensed "tremendous excitement."

A down-ballot Democrat agreed.

"Yes, absolutely," Assemb. Pat Fahy (D-Albany), who is running for State Senate, said when asked if Biden’s decision was good news for Democratic candidates.

"It is the right decision and will re-energize the party, which is sorely needed," Fahy said.

The stakes in New York are high, with 27 congressional seats and 213 state legislative districts up for grabs. Democratic control of the State Legislature isn’t expected to change, but their veto-proof "supermajorities" in both the Senate and Assembly could be on the line.

The battle for congressional seats will focus on swing districts on Long Island, in the Hudson Valley and upstate, with the impact potentially influencing which party wins control of the House of Representatives. Among the incumbents both parties are focusing on are Reps. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park), Nick LaLota (R-Amityville), Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove), Michael Lawler (R-Rockland County) and Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse).

"We’ll have to see data before we know anything," Steve Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena College poll, said on Sunday. Old polls are just that — old.

"The decision by President Biden definitely changes the complexion of the presidential races and down-ballot races," Greenberg said. "When the Democratic ticket is finalized, we certainly look forward to polling New Yorkers."

Michael Dawidziak, a veteran Long Island Republican strategist, said it’s potentially a "whole new ballgame."

"The Democrats have a golden opportunity now — and they could easily blow it — to dominate the news cycle and keep Donald Trump out of the headlines," Dawidziak said. "If they play this right, they dominate the news cycle and generate a ton of excitement."

Asked how Republicans were receiving Biden’s announcement Sunday, Dawidziak said: "This is not good news. They wanted to run against Biden — no two ways about it."

A Long Island Republican, up for reelection in Suffolk County, agreed.

"From a political standpoint, I was very excited about having [Biden] at the top of the ticket," State Sen. Dean Murray (R-East Patchogue) said. "I have to be honest: If Kamala Harris [is the Democratic nominee], I’m equally excited. But right now, it’s a question mark. So it’s a little concerning, but it won’t change how I run my race."

The 3rd State Senate District, which Murray represents, is considered a strong Republican seat.

Dawidziak said a new Democratic nominee — though not Harris, he believes — could help that party in swing districts, such as the Island’s four congressional seats. He said it also depends on whom the party chooses and whether it can unite.

He added that Republicans’ hope for Trump in New York might be diminished.

"When it was Trump-Biden, New York was arguably in striking distance for the Republicans," Dawidziak said. "If [Dems] come up with a candidate who excites their voters, then, no, New York will not be in play."

Biden's departure from the ticket might, in a way, make him more important to Democrats than before, said Lawrence Levy, dean of suburban studies at Hofstra University.

"Joe Biden may be more valuable to the Democratic ticket now that he is no longer on it because of the support and affection that he has always garnered from the voters who ultimately will decide this election, and those are moderate suburbanites," Levy said in an email. "Biden can make the case directly to these swing voters that Harris, who is almost certainly going to be nominee, is someone they should support if they want to secure his legacy and break new ground by electing the first woman of any race and the first Asian American as president."

With Laura Figueroa Hernandez

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy