Crime down, no major scandals, but Gov. Hochul enters 2025 with lagging poll numbers
Gov. Kathy Hochul during a press event in Patchogue on March 2, 2023. Credit: Newsday/Steve Pfost
She’s had no major scandals like some predecessors. Financial aid for schools is flowing at record numbers. Income taxes haven’t been raised and crime is trending downward.
Yet Gov. Kathy Hochul is preparing to enter her fourth full year in office with poll ratings lackluster enough to puzzle some Democrats and outright worry others ahead of the 2026 statewide elections. Some of it can be attributed not to Hochul but to widespread anti-incumbent sentiment around the country, analysts say.
Still, the numbers make this upcoming legislative session critical for the governor. Soon, the governor will outline an agenda for the 2025 January-to-June legislative session that some analysts and Democrats say will be crucial to improving her standing — to strengthen support within the party and among donors and discourage any fellow Democrat from challenging her in a primary.
“It’s all about the next six months for her,” said Hank Sheinkopf, a veteran Democrat strategist. He said Hochul can set the tone with her State of the State address on Jan. 14 and her proposals for the state budget later in January.
“She needs to get above water this next (legislative) session to demonstrate to Democratic leaders around the state that she can be an effective party leader. She has two sessions to demonstrate that to voters,” said Lawrence Levy, dean of suburban studies at Hofstra University and a longtime observer of state politics.
Analysts cite a Siena College poll in December which said 39% of New Yorkers view the governor favorably compared with 49% unfavorably; 46% approved of the job she’s doing compared with 49% who disapproved.
It’s notable — and Hochul backers point it out — the numbers have improved since September when her approval rating was 34%.
Despite the modest improvement, Siena found 33% of New Yorkers surveyed said they want her reelected. Even among Democrats, that number was 48% — some party members say it’s concerning anytime an incumbent is below 50% within the party.
“She’s been on the receiving end of millions of dollars of spending on negative TV ads from special-interest groups on one issue or another. That’s going to have an impact on poll numbers,” said Jay Jacobs, the state and Nassau County Democratic chairman and a Hochul supporter.
Jacobs added the Democratic Party and Hochul’s campaign could do better communicating Hochul’s political wins: “I don’t believe all the good things she’s done have broken through. Maybe we’re not doing enough to get the governor’s message through.”
He said the upcoming State of the State speech and budget address “are going to be great opportunities for her.”
In a statement, Hochul campaign spokeswoman Jennifer Goodman said: “Governor Hochul is delivering real results for New Yorkers and listening to their top concerns — driving down crime and putting money back in families pockets.”
Hochul’s predecessors, such as Andrew M. Cuomo and Eliot Spitzer, hit their all-time lows once scandals triggered their resignations. Hochul has had nothing approaching the sexual harassment, book publishing and nursing home controversies that dogged Cuomo in 2021 or the prostitute scandal that leveled Spitzer in 2008.
But she never reached their heights of popularity either, which partly explains where she stands now, said Basil Smikle, a political strategist and former executive director of the state Democratic Party.
That she took over when Cuomo resigned in August 2021 is a factor too — she missed out on that big sweeping campaign that ushers most executives into office, he said.
“She never had a real honeymoon period,” Smikle said. She had to distance herself from the tarred Cuomo but soon was being “consistently hammered in the first few months” by would-be Republican and Democratic gubernatorial challengers ahead of the ’22 campaign.
“So I think that plays a lot into it — as well as sexism,” Smikle said, noting Hochul is the state’s first woman governor.
The party apparatus, unions and big-time donors rallied behind Hochul — as it often does with any incumbent governor — to help her defeat two Democrats in the ’22 primary and Republican Lee Zeldin that November, though she won by a smaller margin than any New York Democrat in recent history.
When New York Democrats lost congressional seats that year, helping give the GOP control of Congress, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi put some of the blame on Hochul at the top of the state ticket.
This election cycle, Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) has said publicly he’s considering running for governor. The New York political world also took note of a recent op-ed penned by Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado about the future of the party, sparking some scuttlebutt about his plans.
During her three-plus years in office, Hochul has yet to carve out a strong identity with voters, analysts say. She’s positioned herself as the Democratic moderate dealing with a more liberal State Legislature, but at times found herself not getting credit for those to her right or left.
She’s beefed up anti-crime efforts on the New York City subways and against retail theft rings, and crime rates generally have gone down since the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic. She signed a prenatal paid leave law that is popular.
She backed an equal rights amendment that won overwhelming support in November, though allies acknowledge voters haven’t necessarily associated her with the credit, some Democrats have complained privately.
Despite the crime trends, residents tell pollsters they believe crime is worsening — in part because Republicans in political messages are “carpet bombing” the issue, analysts said.
Hochul also has made what some call tactical mistakes.
Though her predecessors always avoided fights over judges, Hochul nominated a moderate chief judge candidate, Hector LaSalle, despite warnings of opposition from the State Legislature and progressive groups. LaSalle eventually was voted down by the State Senate. In the end, she took a political loss and irritated liberal party members.
She halted, then modified a “congestion pricing” plan from Cuomo which called for instituting $15 tolls to enter some parts of Manhattan as a way to encourage mass transit use, reduce gridlock and provide revenue for mass transit repairs. Hochul lowered the toll to $9 — it begins in Jan. 5 — but that didn’t appease critics of any toll and irked some progressives who believe $15 was the level needed to really attack gridlock and mass transit needs.
She proposed to expand housing development and reduce state aid to school districts that have lost significant enrollment. While making logical sense, analysts said Hochul erred on housing by initially raising the specter of overriding local zoning laws.
Hochul later “eventually got it right on housing” by switching from zoning overrides to providing development incentives to communities, Levy said, though it still might have cost her politically.
The upside, Levy said, is her “ratings have improved slightly and she’s starting to get credit for figuring out how to get things done.”
Also, Levy and others pointed out Hochul played a key role in the Democrats’ “coordinated campaign” and fundraising efforts in 2024, which helped the party regain congressional seats in New York and maintain strong control of the State Legislature.
“She did well at the inside game, which most voters aren’t aware of,” Levy said of the Democrats’ 2024 campaigns. “Now, she has to show voters she’s good at the outside (public) game as well.”
“She’s going to have to project herself — again — as the leader of the state of New York and someone who is leading the state nationally,” Smikle said. “I definitely think she needs to lay the groundwork this session.”
Said Sheinkopf: “The mistake would be to count her out.”
Jacobs acknowledged this year is important even if the campaign is a year away.
“We need to move quickly to let people know about all the good things she’s done,” Jacobs said about the urgency to improve the governor’s ratings sooner than later. “This is where a campaign has to come in with a lot of money to make the public aware. Of course, the sooner her poll numbers go up, the better her chances are and the lesser someone else’s chances are.”
She’s had no major scandals like some predecessors. Financial aid for schools is flowing at record numbers. Income taxes haven’t been raised and crime is trending downward.
Yet Gov. Kathy Hochul is preparing to enter her fourth full year in office with poll ratings lackluster enough to puzzle some Democrats and outright worry others ahead of the 2026 statewide elections. Some of it can be attributed not to Hochul but to widespread anti-incumbent sentiment around the country, analysts say.
Still, the numbers make this upcoming legislative session critical for the governor. Soon, the governor will outline an agenda for the 2025 January-to-June legislative session that some analysts and Democrats say will be crucial to improving her standing — to strengthen support within the party and among donors and discourage any fellow Democrat from challenging her in a primary.
“It’s all about the next six months for her,” said Hank Sheinkopf, a veteran Democrat strategist. He said Hochul can set the tone with her State of the State address on Jan. 14 and her proposals for the state budget later in January.
WHAT NEWSDAY FOUND
- Gov. Kathy Hochul is preparing to enter her fourth full year in office with lackluster poll ratings.
- A recent Siena College poll said 39% of New Yorkers view the governor favorably compared with 49% unfavorably.
- Analysts say Hochul's upcoming State of the State address, where she will outline an agenda for the 2025 legislative session, could be crucial to improving her poll numbers.
“She needs to get above water this next (legislative) session to demonstrate to Democratic leaders around the state that she can be an effective party leader. She has two sessions to demonstrate that to voters,” said Lawrence Levy, dean of suburban studies at Hofstra University and a longtime observer of state politics.
Analysts cite a Siena College poll in December which said 39% of New Yorkers view the governor favorably compared with 49% unfavorably; 46% approved of the job she’s doing compared with 49% who disapproved.
Rating improves, but still below 50%
It’s notable — and Hochul backers point it out — the numbers have improved since September when her approval rating was 34%.
Despite the modest improvement, Siena found 33% of New Yorkers surveyed said they want her reelected. Even among Democrats, that number was 48% — some party members say it’s concerning anytime an incumbent is below 50% within the party.
“She’s been on the receiving end of millions of dollars of spending on negative TV ads from special-interest groups on one issue or another. That’s going to have an impact on poll numbers,” said Jay Jacobs, the state and Nassau County Democratic chairman and a Hochul supporter.
Jacobs added the Democratic Party and Hochul’s campaign could do better communicating Hochul’s political wins: “I don’t believe all the good things she’s done have broken through. Maybe we’re not doing enough to get the governor’s message through.”
He said the upcoming State of the State speech and budget address “are going to be great opportunities for her.”
In a statement, Hochul campaign spokeswoman Jennifer Goodman said: “Governor Hochul is delivering real results for New Yorkers and listening to their top concerns — driving down crime and putting money back in families pockets.”
Hochul’s predecessors, such as Andrew M. Cuomo and Eliot Spitzer, hit their all-time lows once scandals triggered their resignations. Hochul has had nothing approaching the sexual harassment, book publishing and nursing home controversies that dogged Cuomo in 2021 or the prostitute scandal that leveled Spitzer in 2008.
But she never reached their heights of popularity either, which partly explains where she stands now, said Basil Smikle, a political strategist and former executive director of the state Democratic Party.
That she took over when Cuomo resigned in August 2021 is a factor too — she missed out on that big sweeping campaign that ushers most executives into office, he said.
“She never had a real honeymoon period,” Smikle said. She had to distance herself from the tarred Cuomo but soon was being “consistently hammered in the first few months” by would-be Republican and Democratic gubernatorial challengers ahead of the ’22 campaign.
“So I think that plays a lot into it — as well as sexism,” Smikle said, noting Hochul is the state’s first woman governor.
The party apparatus, unions and big-time donors rallied behind Hochul — as it often does with any incumbent governor — to help her defeat two Democrats in the ’22 primary and Republican Lee Zeldin that November, though she won by a smaller margin than any New York Democrat in recent history.
When New York Democrats lost congressional seats that year, helping give the GOP control of Congress, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi put some of the blame on Hochul at the top of the state ticket.
Primary fight a possibility
This election cycle, Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) has said publicly he’s considering running for governor. The New York political world also took note of a recent op-ed penned by Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado about the future of the party, sparking some scuttlebutt about his plans.
During her three-plus years in office, Hochul has yet to carve out a strong identity with voters, analysts say. She’s positioned herself as the Democratic moderate dealing with a more liberal State Legislature, but at times found herself not getting credit for those to her right or left.
She’s beefed up anti-crime efforts on the New York City subways and against retail theft rings, and crime rates generally have gone down since the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic. She signed a prenatal paid leave law that is popular.
She backed an equal rights amendment that won overwhelming support in November, though allies acknowledge voters haven’t necessarily associated her with the credit, some Democrats have complained privately.
Despite the crime trends, residents tell pollsters they believe crime is worsening — in part because Republicans in political messages are “carpet bombing” the issue, analysts said.
Hochul also has made what some call tactical mistakes.
Though her predecessors always avoided fights over judges, Hochul nominated a moderate chief judge candidate, Hector LaSalle, despite warnings of opposition from the State Legislature and progressive groups. LaSalle eventually was voted down by the State Senate. In the end, she took a political loss and irritated liberal party members.
She halted, then modified a “congestion pricing” plan from Cuomo which called for instituting $15 tolls to enter some parts of Manhattan as a way to encourage mass transit use, reduce gridlock and provide revenue for mass transit repairs. Hochul lowered the toll to $9 — it begins in Jan. 5 — but that didn’t appease critics of any toll and irked some progressives who believe $15 was the level needed to really attack gridlock and mass transit needs.
She proposed to expand housing development and reduce state aid to school districts that have lost significant enrollment. While making logical sense, analysts said Hochul erred on housing by initially raising the specter of overriding local zoning laws.
Hochul later “eventually got it right on housing” by switching from zoning overrides to providing development incentives to communities, Levy said, though it still might have cost her politically.
Starting to get credit
The upside, Levy said, is her “ratings have improved slightly and she’s starting to get credit for figuring out how to get things done.”
Also, Levy and others pointed out Hochul played a key role in the Democrats’ “coordinated campaign” and fundraising efforts in 2024, which helped the party regain congressional seats in New York and maintain strong control of the State Legislature.
“She did well at the inside game, which most voters aren’t aware of,” Levy said of the Democrats’ 2024 campaigns. “Now, she has to show voters she’s good at the outside (public) game as well.”
“She’s going to have to project herself — again — as the leader of the state of New York and someone who is leading the state nationally,” Smikle said. “I definitely think she needs to lay the groundwork this session.”
Said Sheinkopf: “The mistake would be to count her out.”
Jacobs acknowledged this year is important even if the campaign is a year away.
“We need to move quickly to let people know about all the good things she’s done,” Jacobs said about the urgency to improve the governor’s ratings sooner than later. “This is where a campaign has to come in with a lot of money to make the public aware. Of course, the sooner her poll numbers go up, the better her chances are and the lesser someone else’s chances are.”
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