Is New York really in play for Republicans in presidential race? Analysts say no

Cook Political Report is calling New York State a solid blue, Democratic win in the upcoming presidential election. So is RealClearPolitics, CNN, Siena College and ABC News/538.

So when Republican Donald Trump sought to portray New York as in play during the former president's Long Island rally Wednesday, analysts said it was more about pumping up supporters and donors, and trying to help downballot Republicans in local races, rather than giving an accurate lay of the land.

"New York is most definitely not in play. Trump always says this," said Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia who has analyzed elections for decades and written more than 20 books on politics.

"Look, he said this in 2016. He said this in 2020," but lost by more than 20 points each time, Sabato said. "There’s no one in the business I’m in who thinks it is in play or has evidence it is in play."

"It’s delusional," said Lawrence Levy, dean of suburban studies at Hofstra University.

On many analytical sites, New York is considered solidly behind Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris. For instance, Cook Political Report lists it as one of 14 "solid blue" states, pooling it with California, Massachusetts, New Jersey and others. ABC doesn’t list New York as one of its "key races."

The latest New York poll was published by Siena on Thursday, finding Harris leading Trump by 13 percentage points. On a related note, the poll-aggregator site "270 to Win" considers New York "likely" Democratic rather than "solid" because the poll margin is less than 15 points. That’s about as soft a ranking anyone will see at the moment for New York.

Harris’ lead in New York is smaller than some of her Democratic predecessors, said Steve Greenberg, Siena poll spokesman. That means Trump could do better here than he did in his last two campaigns.

But Harris’ lead still is considered solid.

"If I were a Republican, I wouldn’t invest a lot of money in the presidential race in New York," Greenberg said.

Further, the reality is both campaigns will spend money in the swing states that likely will determine the outcome.

The contest is a "total dogfight in states that will actually matter in the presidential race, and I’d think [Trump’s] time would be better used campaigning in those states," said Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s colleague at the University of Virginia who runs the school’s political forecasting website.

Another consideration is the GOP has not won a statewide contest in New York in decades.

No Republican presidential candidate has carried the state since Ronald Reagan in 1984. No Republican has won a U.S. Senate contest since Alfonse D’Amato in 1992. No Republican governor candidate has won since George Pataki in 2002. Lee Zeldin came within seven points of Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul in 2022, however, which has had Republicans pumped up about their chances in statewide races.

Beyond the fight for electoral votes in the presidential contest, there are other considerations for Trump trying to frame New York as winnable, analysts said.

"The better he does here, the better chance it might filter to some downballot races and also remind New York donors that he should be on their radar screens," Levy said.

Republicans hold a slim majority in the House of Representatives, thanks in part to winning swing districts on Long Island and in the Hudson Valley in 2022. Those seats — held by freshman members of Congress — again are considered "in play" this fall for control of the House.

Even if Trump isn’t in striking distance now, Republicans say the fact that he is closer in the polls than last time is a help.

"New York is absolutely more competitive than it has been in recent elections and that is definitely helping our candidates across the state," said David Catalfamo, who served as communications director in the Pataki administration and who has worked on numerous GOP campaigns.

Susan Del Percio, a Republican strategist, cast doubt on whether enthusiasm for Trump will help congressional GOP candidates.

"Now that Harris is on the ballot rather than Biden, Democrats have a better chance to win back these swing seats," Del Percio said. "If anything, Trump might be a negative on downballot races."

On Long Island, "in play" congressional races include a Nassau County district held by Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park), who is facing Democrat Laura Gillen, and a Suffolk County district held by Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Amityville), who is facing Democrat John Avlon.

"They are essential to this tiny Republican majority," Sabato said. "So Trump and Republican leadership are trying to do everything they can to get them reelected."

Pumping up turnout is part of the effort — for Democrats and Republicans.

"In the suburbs, Trump is a two-edge sword," Levy said. "He can rally his supporters — but that is not enough to win in suburban districts. There is a question of whether Trump helps more than hurts in building a bridge to the moderates in the suburbs who [decide] close elections."

He continued: "The Republicans will say he creates enthusiasm for us. Democrats will say he is the best advertisement for us because Trump is weird and out of step with suburbanites."

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy