Newsday/Siena poll: Gillen leads D'Esposito, LaLota has edge over Avlon

Freshman Rep. Anthony D’Esposito faces a big deficit in his reelection bid while fellow freshman Rep. Nick LaLota holds a slight lead in his contest, according to two new Newsday/Siena College polls.

D’Esposito (R-Island Park) trails Democrat Laura Gillen by 12 percentage points — 53% to 41% — in a survey of likely voters in the 4th Congressional District in Nassau County.

LaLota (R-Amityville) has a three-point lead — 47% to 44% — over Democrat John Avlon in the 1st Congressional District, which covers eastern and most of Suffolk County.

The two races are viewed as keys to which party wins control of Congress in November. Republicans currently hold a narrow, 8-seat advantage, and many swing seats are in play across the nation.

With the coattails of the presidential race playing a factor in many races, Democrat Kamala Harris has a 10-point lead (51%-41%) over Republican Donald Trump in the 4th District, while the two are tied in the 1st, which was an area Trump carried in 2020.

Don Levy, director of the Siena College Research Institute, said the polls indicate Democratic passion seems on the upswing after a dip in 2022 when Republicans won several key congressional contests in New York.

"What we’re finding is there is a Democratic enthusiasm" this fall compared with two years ago, Levy said.

He said presidential coattails — support for one party down the ballot — could play a significant factor in both districts, especially the 1st where Harris is doing slightly better than Avlon.

Levy said if those surveyed said they were dissatisfied with their personal finances and the direction of the country, they tended to favor Trump and Republican candidates. If they were satisfied, they tended to favor Harris and the Democrats.

But if their personal finances were good but they were unhappy with the nation’s direction, the 1st and 4th voters reacted differently: In the 1st they supported Trump; in the 4th, Harris.

4th District

Gillen leads D’Esposito across every age bracket, ranging from a 26-percentage point lead among 18- to 35-year-olds to a three-point lead among those 65 and older.

While each candidate is strongly supported by their respective party members, the poll found 12% of Republicans favor Gillen, while 7% of Democrats favor D’Esposito. Gillen leads among independent and minor-party voters, 46%-44%.

The voters also favored Gillen about specific issues queried in the poll.

They say they trust Gillen more on the economy (49%-41%); abortion rights (56%-30%); protecting democracy (52%-39%), restoring state and local tax deductions (47%-39%) and the Middle East (43%-38%).

They trusted D’Esposito more on border issues (47%-42%) and crime (49%-43%).

Asked how they view each candidate, 47% view Gillen favorably while 35% say unfavorably. D’Esposito is in negative territory, with 41% saying favorably and 46% unfavorably.

"That’s a big spread there on favorability, with Gillen a plus-12 and D’Esposito a minus-5," Levy said.

The poll of 532 likely voters in the district was conducted Oct. 13-17 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, meaning the answer to each question could vary by that much.

Levy noted that in 2020, Democratic turnout outpaced Republican by 13 percentage points in the district, but it dropped to just six points in 2022 when D’Esposito was elected.

Judy Seide, a Woodmere independent, supports Gillen because of abortion rights and the transformation of the Republican Party under Trump. She used to split her ballot, but not now.

"I’m supporting Democrats because I cannot stand what has happened to the Republicans since Trump. They had decent people before" him, said Seide, 85. 

Bridget Grover, a Seaford Republican, favors D’Esposito in part because he aligns with Trump.

"He is more conservative," Grover said of D’Esposito. "He has a background in law enforcement, and I think there has been more crime going on and I think he’d be better."

1st District

In the 1st District, LaLota has a narrow lead over Avlon, but it is within the margin of error, meaning the race could be a dead heat.

"It really looks like a very close race," Levy said.

A breakdown of the support shows the difference right now could be independent and minor-party voters among which LaLota has an eight-percentage point (46%-38%) lead. Though there isn’t much cross-party support, 9% of Republicans favor Avlon while 4% of Dems favor LaLota.

Avlon has a one-point lead among voters from 18 to 49, but LaLota has a 56%-41% advantage in voters ages 50-64. Those over 65 like Avlon, 52%-41%.

On issues, LaLota is favored on the economy (45%-41%), border (47%-39%) and crime (48%-39%).

Avlon is favored on abortion rights (47%-35%).

And voters put them in a dead heat on state and local tax deductions, protecting democracy and the Middle East.

Unlike the 4th District, both candidates in the 1st are viewed favorably. LaLota is viewed favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 35%. Avlon has a 43%-27% favorable advantage.

But Avlon, unlike Democrat Gillen in the 4th District, is still unknown to a noteworthy proportion of the district’s voters — for example, one-third of independent voters said they had no opinion of Avlon, Levy said.

At the same time, 14% of independents say they are undecided in the race, which makes them "more of a wild card in this race," he said.

"Will Avlon win those folks over, saying this is who I am and what I’ll do for you? Or will he fail?" Levy said.

The 1st District poll of 526 likely voters was taken Oct. 13-17 and has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.

Rose Masone, 61, a Middle Island Republican, said she’s backing "LaLota because he represents the direction I’d like to go in."

She cited the issues of abortion and immigration as reasons she’s likely to support "conservatives across the board."

While stressing she is not anti-immigration, Masone said: "We are not prepared to handle this volume of people coming in" and says "we aren’t prepared to ensure we can do right by the people coming in."

"I don’t necessarily like how Donald Trump presents the message" on immigration, Masone said, but she agrees with the substance of his positions.

In contrast, Gene Parker, 76, a Coram Democrat, said he supports Avlon because the GOP has become all about Trump.

"I’m voting all Democrat because we don’t have a Republican Party anymore and that’s too bad," Parker said.

Parker said Trump could start "World War III," wants to "take Social Security away, reduce child support" aid and environmental protections while also getting it wrong on Ukraine and Israel.

Said Parker: "Trump is only in it for himself."

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy