ALBANY — New York State enrollment data shows a downward trend in the number of Democratic voters between the 2020 and 2024 presidential election cycles, with Republicans and unaffiliated voters seeing an uptick in voter registrations.

Statewide, enrollment in the Democratic Party decreased by 4%, or about 242,000 active voters, from November 2020 to November 2024, according to a Newsday analysis of state Board of Elections data.

During the same time frame, Republicans saw a 3% increase of 77,125 active voters, and the number of unaffiliated, or "blank," voters grew by 13% with an increase of about 345,500 active voters.

Political and election trend experts say the enrollment shifts in the Empire State are on par with what’s happening nationally with a rise in voters who no longer feel a connection with either major party and have become "wild cards," particularly in purple areas such as Long Island where they can shift elections.

Long Island saw similar trends when comparing November 2020 to 2024.

In Nassau County, Democrats saw a 2% decrease in voter enrollment while Republican enrollment stayed relatively flat and unaffiliated voters rose by nearly 12%.

In Suffolk County, Democrats saw a 1% increase, while Republicans saw a 5% increase and blank voters grew by 14%.

While Democrats in New York State still maintain the overwhelming majority with nearly 6 million of the more than 12 million active voters in the state, political experts say the trend is worth watching.

For the first time it looks as if the gap between Republicans and Democrats in New York is starting to narrow, said Blair Horner, executive director of the New York Public Interest Research Group. "Is that a trend that will continue, who knows? Should that be an alarm bell to Democrats and a glimmer of hope to Republicans? Yes," he said.

Enrollment changes could be the result of a number of factors, including population and demographic shifts, potential dissatisfaction with the parties in power and increases in registration around presidential election cycles, said Thessalia Merivaki, an associate teaching professor at the McCourt School of Public Policy at Georgetown University.

"Overall voter registration or voter enrollment trends, they ebb and flow," said Merivaki, who also is an associate research professor at the Massive Data Institute at Georgetown.

Voter enrollment changes, along with other factors, could result in gains for Republicans in blue states such as California and New York, or Democrats in red states such as Mississippi, Merivaki said.

There is a question as to whether those enrollment shifts are "spilling over into election outcomes" and "how the partisan makeup of the electoral vote is going to look in the future," she said.

Enrollment shifts

"Politics is a cyclic business," said state Democratic Committee Chairman Jay Jacobs. "There are periods when new Democratic enrollment exceeds the Republicans and there are times when the reverse is true."

From November of 2016 to 2024 — both presidential election years — Democrats in New York saw a 5% increase in enrollment, going from over 5.6 million voters to about 5.9 million voters. Republicans saw a 7% increase from about 2.6 million to approximately 2.8 million and unaffiliated voters grew by 25% going from over 2.4 million to 3 million.

Enrollment is typically higher during federal election cycles, particularly presidential elections, Merivaki said.

This happens for two major reasons: increased voter enthusiasm and voter turnout campaigns that encourage new voters to enroll, she said.

After federal elections there can be drops in voter registration as turnout campaigns end and state boards of election remove inactive and ineligible voters from the polls.

Purging is part of election system maintenance to remove voters who voted for a period of time, moved out of the state, were convicted and incarcerated for a felony, were legally deemed to be mentally incompetent or requested to be removed from the voter list. Federal law prohibits the removal of voters from election lists up to 90 days before a primary or general election for federal office.

The mobility of Americans, who can easily shift from one state or region to another, also impacts enrollment, Merivaki said.

Politics of enrollment

Shifts in enrollment also can change depending on approval or disapproval of who is in federal, state and local offices, Merivaki said. For example, more Republicans could be mobilized if they disapprove of Democrats in power and vice versa.

With Republicans having won the 2024 presidential election and taking control of Congress, it’s a reasonable expectation that Democratic voter registration is going to pick up toward the next midterm election, Merivaki said.

There also can be changes in politics as voters align with one party over another over time.

The available voter data doesn’t provide the nuances such as which voters are new to the party and who switched to a different party.

And the rise in unaffiliated voters complicates it further, calling into question what drives those individuals to not register with a party, experts said.

"Voters increasingly disenchanted with both Democrats and Republicans is a national phenomenon that plays out in New York," Horner said.

Merivaki noted that unaffiliated voters are often not included in traditional research and polling. That makes it more difficult to figure out how they’ll vote and to predict the outcome of elections.

The 2024 election cycle saw many of unaffiliated voters voted for Republicans, which is one way to explain Republican advantages in places such as Long Island, Horner said. Purple suburbs such as those on the Island have long been considered election battlegrounds.

"The blanks are a wild card in New York," Horner said, adding that whoever can make inroads with them has a path to victory.