Zeldin's differing comments show political risks of abortion issue for GOP, experts say

ALBANY — Rep. Lee Zeldin, a Republican candidate for governor,  told a Right to Life group in a closed campaign event in April that he would open the executive chamber to anti-abortion advocates and might even appoint a health commissioner opposed to abortion rights.

But this week in a public news conference, Zeldin took a different tack, saying that even if he were governor, he wouldn't be able to weaken abortion laws because the State Legislature is still controlled by Democrats.

Political scientists say Zeldin’s different statements shows just how politically dicey the abortion issue is for the conservative Republican. Zeldin needs the conservative base of the GOP to win the Republican primary in June, but that stance could become a liability in the general election in November in a state where polls show most voters support the right to abortion, they say.

“For decades, pro-life Republican candidates running in New York State have often said that Roe v. Wade is settled law and not an issue at the state level,” said Susan Del Percio, a national political commentator who has advised Republicans and Democrats. “New York has only become bluer over the years.”

But she said avoiding the abortion issue is no longer possible for Zeldin and other Republicans. On May 3, a draft opinion was leaked from the U.S. Supreme Court that revealed an argument to overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that made abortion legal nationwide.

Now, “the issue on abortion will be front and center in New York’s governor’s race,” Del Percio said. Zeldin’s opposition to abortion rights “may help him in the primary, (but) he will be painted as an extremist in the general election.”

On Tuesday, Hochul referred to Zeldin not by name, but as “a Republican candidate who already said he would pick a pro-life commissioner.”

“We refuse to go backward,” Hochul said, noting that New York has long been a bastion of civil rights and rights for women “who demanded autonomy over their bodies, and their right to not be held as property of a husband.”

Lee Miringoff, political science professor at Marist College, said what will drive voters in the fall “is still a wide-open question," but the reaction by Hochul and Zeldin this week is telling.

“The Democratic base is likely to stir and, in New York, the Democratic advantage is huge if their base is activated,” said Miringoff, who is also director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “The reactions of Hochul and Zeldin indicate who is more worried. Hochul sees this as a wake-up call and Zeldin doesn’t want this as a ballot issue.”

Even one of Zeldin’s Republican primary opponents, Andrew Giuliani, challenged Zeldin's statements about abortion, but as being weak. Zeldin gave a “vague non-answer on abortion … only a few days after indicating he’d consider appointing a pro-life commissioner.” Giuliani added: “I am not afraid to say I’m pro-life ...”

In April, Zeldin had made his case to those opposed to abortion rights.

“It would be a great benefit for the state of New York to have a health commissioner who respects life as opposed to what we're used to,” Zeldin said in a video of the closed event first reported by NY1. He also said he’d provide an open door to the anti-abortion advocates to the governor’s office in Albany: “Come on into the second floor of the New York State Capitol. It’s been a while, but you come right on in.”

On Monday, Zeldin tried to downplay the issue of abortion and tried to redirect the press conference to issues of crime, inflation and what he sees as Hochul’s failures to hold down spending and to root out corruption. Zeldin said Hochul is using abortion rights as “an imaginary shiny object” to distract voters from more pressing issues, that her perceived threat to abortion rights is an “unrealistic hypothetical,” and that her warnings are “just 100% dishonest.”
Zeldin also said that as a Republican governor, he wouldn't be able to change abortion laws through a Legislature that will likely still be controlled by Democrats.
“The New York state Assembly is not going to be sending me a bill that is going to be rolling this stuff back,” he said.
Zeldin on Monday wouldn’t answer reporters’ questions about whether he would use a governor’s leverage under law in crafting a budget to restrict abortion laws.
The latest Siena Research Institute poll on abortion was in January 2019. The poll found 63% of New Yorkers, including 75% of Democrats and 58% of voters not enrolled in a party, supported updating state abortion laws to be consistent with protections under Roe v. Wade. Among Republicans, 48% supported the measure compared with 36% who opposed.
But Zeldin and Republicans point to a more recent Siena poll. Last month, the poll found crime was the single top issue for 24% of voters polled when considering a candidate for governor. Abortion was the top issue for just 1%. Ranking higher than abortion was taxes, the economy, ethics in government, and inflation, according to the April poll.
That poll, however, was conducted before the leaked document showed the U.S. Supreme Court might overturn Roe v. Wade.
“There is no question that abortion is going to play a larger role in this year’s elections — from statewide races down to local races — than it has in any recent election cycle," said Steven Greenberg of the Siena poll.
 

By Michael Gormley

michael.gormley@newsday.com@GormleyAlbany

Michael Gormley has worked for Newsday since 2013, covering state government, politics and issues. He has covered Albany since 2001.