Hurricane season for Atlantic now predicted to be more intense, with record warm seas, NOAA says

Record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures were among the factors that led federal scientists to boost their prediction Thursday from a near-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season to one that is busier than normal.

The forecast from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service — came near the start of the August-October peak storm season, when 90% of Atlantic Ocean storms occur. It called for 14 to 21 named storms with winds of 39 mph or greater. Some six to 11 of those could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater, with two to five growing into major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or greater. 

Not all storms make landfall, but when they do, the results can be catastrophic: Superstorm Sandy, which was a hurricane just before morphing into a superstorm on Long Island in 2012, killed 13 people on the Island and cost the economy here an estimated $10 billion.

NOAA’s hurricane outlook now predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season, up from 30% predicted in an outlook issued in May.

An average season produces 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. 

“We urge everyone to prepare now for the continuing season,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Record warmth in global waters can fuel more energetic storms, and “there are no analogues” in NOAA’s historical data for such current sea surface temperatures, Rosencrans said.

Global ocean surface temperature for June reached the highest levels in the 174 years of NOAA data, with temperatures 1.66 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. Northern Hemisphere waters also reached record warm levels, with temperatures 1.93 degrees above normal.

Some variability in water temperature is to be expected and water temperature is not the only factor affecting storm development. But the correlation between increased temperature and more frequent and higher energy storms is powerful, said Kevin Reed, associate dean for research and associate professor at Stony Brook University’s School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences.

And, he said, “The more hurricanes there are in any individual season, the more likely they are to make landfall … It only takes one storm to have catastrophic, life-changing impacts in our area.”

Nelson Vaz, warning coordinator meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Upton station, said that warmer water temperatures off the U.S.  coast could mean more storms developing nearby, instead of off the west coast of Africa, where many develop now. That could “shrink the timeline” that meteorologists and the public have to track and prepare for storms, he said.

Suffolk County Commissioner of Fire, Rescue & Emergency Services Patrick Beckley said in an email that county officials used the NOAA hurricane outlook as one element of their disaster preparedness.

"We do not prepare solely based on what the seasonal hurricane outlook is because all it takes is one storm to devastate a community. As we saw with Super Storm Sandy, a storm does not have to be a hurricane or a direct hit to cause severe and life-changing damage. The Suffolk County Office of Emergency Management prepares in every way possible for hurricane season and its potential worst-case scenario,” the email said.

A Nassau County spokesman did not comment. 

In recent years, threats from hurricanes have expanded beyond storm surge and wind damage to include torrential rain and inland flooding, Rosencrans said. 

Superstorm Sandy washed 10 billion gallons of oil, garbage and sewage onto lawns and into basements in the Northeast, and eventually into the ocean. It took out nearly 100,000 homes, businesses, schools, government buildings and other structures.

In 2021, Hurricane Ida's remnants killed at least 13 people in Queens and Brooklyn who were trapped in flooded basement apartments or trapped in cars in rising waters on roadways.