Report: More active hurricane season now predicted for Atlantic basin

The Atlantic basin could see an above-average hurricane season, say researchers at Colorado State University, who revised their initial storm predictions due to the accelerated heating of the world's oceans.

The new revised report this week predicts 18 named storms, nine storms reaching hurricane status and four major hurricanes.

That marks an uptick from an April forecast from Colorado State researchers that predicted 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. 

Researchers in the school's Department of Atmospheric Science said Thursday there is still uncertainty about the hurricane outlook, thanks to a brewing El Niño weather pattern that is already producing heat waves across the globe. 

An El Niño system typically reduces Atlantic hurricane activity through increases in vertical wind shear that tend to dampen down storms. However, the impact of that same pattern on sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, now at record levels, could lead to increased hurricanes in any event, the report said.

Nevertheless, the report said: "Our model guidance has continued to shift upwards towards a very active season, necessitating a significant increase in the forecast numbers with this update."

Long Island officials said they have been preparing for hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Nassau County regularly holds training drills for major storms and mails residents storm preparation guidelines, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman said. 

"It is concerning because we've got a warmer summer and warming waters could mean storms could arrive earlier," Blakeman said.

Suffolk County officials said the Office of Emergency Services remains prepared for the worst-case scenario.

"We don’t prepare based on what the seasonal hurricane outlook is because all it takes is one storm to devastate a community," said Patrick Beckley, Suffolk County commissioner of Fire, Rescue & Emergency Services  "As we saw with superstorm Sandy, a storm does not have to be a hurricane or a direct hit to cause severe and life changing damage."

The forecast from NOAA, which also puts out hurricane projections, released at the end of May had also predicted a near-normal hurricane season, with up to 17 named storms, between five and nine hurricanes and between one and four major hurricanes. The forecast also called for a 30% chance of an above average season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA is expected to offer an updated forecast next month.

“As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them,” the Colorado State report said. “They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”

With John Valenti and Deborah S. Morris
 

By John Asbury

john.asbury@newsday.comJohnAsbury

John Asbury is a breaking news and general assignment reporter. He has been with Newsday since 2014 and previously worked at The Press-Enterprise in Riverside, California.