Does downpour dampen Long Island's drought? Not likely, experts say

Parched and fire-weary Long Island’s rainy reprieve from the driest autumn in nearly six decades only puts a pause on a regionwide three-month dry spell, which began just days after an August downpour in northern Suffolk washed out homes, bridges and prompted a federal disaster declaration.

From Aug. 21 — after the once-in-a-generation storm inundated several North Shore villages and towns with 6 to 10 inches of rain — through this past Monday, the National Weather Service measured a collective 0.65 inches of rain in Islip.

October ended as the single driest month on modern record, with just 0.12 inches of rain according to data from the National Weather Service.

The U.S. Drought Monitor, which reports drought conditions across the United States, continued to list Long Island and New York City in severe drought status amid the latest rain.

"It's the worst we've seen in a long time with everything being so dry," said Riverhead Fire Department Chief JR Renten, days before substantial rain finally arrived overnight Wednesday and continued into early Friday. Renten said that on Nov. 9, his firefighters and others from well over a dozen departments eventually knocked down a 20-acre brush fire in Baiting Hollow.

The dry days, more often than not with more sun than clouds, have baked thick brush and other growth into piles of dry kindling that otherwise would be moistened after a normal fall rainy season. 

As a result, Suffolk firefighters have battled more than 300 brush fires since Aug. 21, some within close range of dozens of homes, along with commercial buildings. Across the border into Nassau, firefighters have raced to put out at least 70 more in recent weeks. 

Earlier this month, Gov. Kathy Hochul enacted a statewide ban on outdoor burning until Nov. 30.

Few like this fall

Farmers out east describe planting seeds "into powder." Weather and climate experts — always on watch for extreme swings and patterns — marvel at this singular fall dry spell. Fire chiefs like Renten stay on watch for flare ups, and government leaders brush up on the state's four levels of drought advisories, with the most severe potentially leading to restrictions on water use.

It's been a fall like few others.

Or, as Dr. Jase Bernhardt, an associate professor of geology, environment and sustainability at Hofstra University put it, the drought conditions are "super-eye opening" and "certainly unprecedented in recent times."

By Friday morning, the island's most recent weather event had dropped 2.25 inches of rain in Oyster Bay, the most in Nassau County, and 2.88 inches had fallen in Smithtown, Suffolk’s highest total, according to data from the National Weather Service. But will the rain forecast through early Saturday be enough to nudge the region out of the drought and lessen brush fire concerns?

"If it goes back to being blue skies and sunshine right after the rain, it’s going to dry right back out again," said Forest Ranger Capt. Scott Jackson, who manages wildfire protection for the state Department of Environmental Conservation.

After Saturday, "our next chance for precipitation looks like Monday night, there's a slight chance," Pollina said. "That usually means mainly dry, but some areas might see a passing shower. Nothing through midweek after that."

The weather change since the late summer "certainly sets off a small alarm," said David Black an associate professor at Stony Brook University’s School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences.

"This is notably different from what we’ve observed in the last couple of decades," he added. "We don’t have a history of prior events like this as we go further back in time."

Black stopped short of pinning blame for the drought on climate change — such a diagnosis would require a yearslong trend.

"It’s entirely possible that these events would have happened in the absence of human-related climate change," Black said, before adding that the changing climate "does make these events more likely to happen" and "tends to amplify the events when they happen."

Climate models indicate a warmer atmosphere holding more water vapor can increase the chance of extreme weather patterns in the northeastern United States, including heavy rain, which Bernhardt said can be "potentially" offset with "longer dry stretches."

Running almost around the clock

For farmers like Joe Shipman, owner of Shamrock Christmas Tree Farm in Mattituck, and Anthony Caggiano, who owns Plant Connections in Riverhead, where he grows flowers, roses and other greenery, the drought has increased their reliance on their irrigation systems.

"My pump hasn’t shut off in almost six weeks," Shipman said. "We’re irrigating constantly almost around the clock to keep everything alive."

Should droughts become an annual East End fall tradition economic effects could ripple far beyond the farms.

"If we’re running electricity for irrigation, if we’re running diesel for irrigation, that all costs," Caggiano said. "Once those costs go up, who’s gonna absorb those? It’s going to have to be the consumer because we can’t."

Other North Fork farmers struggled to grow their winter cover crop in the bone-dry soil.

"It’s so dry, you’re just planting seed into powder," said Southold Town Supervisor Al Krupski, a fourth generation farmer in Peconic. "I’ve never seen it this dry before."

Even so, Krupski and others familiar with Long Island's agriculture industry note that the lack of fall rain beats last year's sopping Saturdays and Sundays. By the middle of October 2023, five straight weekends had been washed out by rain, which kept families from picking pumpkins or apples.

The atmospheric conditions that have driven Long Island and New York City into a drought include "persistent high pressure over the last two months," said David Stark, another meteorologist with the weather service's Upton office.

That high pressure, Stark added, "generally results in drier weather, more tranquil conditions. There have been some weak weather systems that have moved through that have come through dry. There has just not been enough moisture in the area to help with much precipitation."

Brush fire fuel

The sun and lack of rain has also ripened sunbaked trees and brush into fuel for the wildfires, said Jackson, of the DEC.

"The drought conditions, if there’s a groundwater shortage, that also contributes to the severity of a fire," Jackson said. "Those fine fuels — the leaves and the grass — carry the fire, but then the fire starts burning into the ground, the organic matter below the surface, things like partially decomposed leaves and wood."

The long-term risk posed by brush fires could depend on long-term weather patterns.

"Right now," Bernhardt said, "there’s no strong evidence of a trend toward droughts in the future." 

Fall 2024 will likely be studied due to its "very anomalous" nature and the fact that "there weren't any signs" immediately foreshadowing it, Bernhardt added. Black noted that it would take "10 or 15 years worth of a sufficient pattern" for experts to declare this drought and those of tomorrow are "likely due to climate change."

"But even then, I’d be a little cautious," he added.

Either way, said Al Krupski, who owns and operates Krupski Farms in Peconic, the years have taught him to adjust, or at least accept.

"Last year, with so much rain in the fall, that was really difficult for business and for growing, I think we all kind of braced for it this fall," Krupski said. "We’ve had two extreme years in a row, one wet and one dry. Whatever Mother Nature deals, you have to play those cards."