Hurricane outlook for the Atlantic: near normal with up to 17 named storms

After seven consecutive years of Atlantic hurricane seasons that were forecast to be more powerful and frequent than is typical, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Thursday predicted a near normal outlook this year, in part due to conditions that could drive the jet stream further south.

Forecasters with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center are calling for a range of 12 to 17 named storms, which means they must have winds of at least 39 miles per hour, during the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to Nov. 30.

They include between five and nine storms becoming hurricanes with maximum winds of at least 74 miles per hour and one to four that are a Category 3 or higher, with winds of at least 111 mph, officials said during a news conference at NOAA's Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in Maryland.

"Remember, it only takes one storm to devastate a community," said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, adding that there remains a 30% chance of an above normal hurricane season and a 30% chance of it being below normal. "Regardless of the statistics I shared, if one of those named storms is hitting your home or your community, it's very serious."

NOAA scientists, along with meteorologists at the National Weather Service in Upton, said it's not possible to forecast how many storms Long Island — or any specific region — would get in the forthcoming season.

Storm names are picked in advance and alternate between male and female. Atlantic names this year are: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harold, Idalia, Jose, Katia, Lee, Margot, Nigel, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince and Whitney.

NOAA scientists predict a high potential for an El Niño weather system to develop this summer, which can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing Caribbean winds that drive the jet stream farther south, into northern Florida and the Gulf of Mexico.

But El Niño's potential influence could be offset by some long-standing conditions known to produce active hurricane seasons, including warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea and the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which can lead to stronger and longer-lived Atlantic storms.

NOAA estimates a 93% chance of an El Nino weather phenomenon during the core hurricane season, said Matthew Rosencrans, the agency's lead hurricane forecaster.

"Hurricanes are more than just the cone that we see," said Deanne Criswell, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. "They are storm surge. They are significant rainfall. They are carbon monoxide poisoning after. There are so many other hazards. So you need to know what your risk is where you live, so you can take the appropriate measures to protect your family."

NOAA's forecast largely lines up with those by climate researchers from Colorado State University, which last month predicted 13 named storms during the 2023 hurricane season.

Last year's hurricane season had 14 named storms, three of which were hurricanes that hit the United States, including Fiona, which struck Puerto Rico in mid-September, and Ian, which walloped Florida in late September, causing $117 billion in damages, said Don Graves, deputy secretary of the Commerce Department, NOAA's parent agency. 

As hurricane season approaches, Graves said preparation will be key.

"It's absolutely crucial that all Americans living in potential paths of these storms, even well inland of the coasts, follow NOAA's guidance for preparation and determine your risk; develop an evacuation plan and assemble the disaster supplies that you may need," he said.

The Climate Prediction Center will update its Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, just before the historical peak of the season.

By Robert Brodsky

robert.brodsky@newsday.com@BrodskyRobert

Robert Brodsky is a breaking news reporter who has worked at Newsday since 2011. He is a Queens College and American University alum.