Winter forecast: Warmer than normal conditions expected but significant storms could still affect Long Island, NWS says

National Weather Service meteorologists expect warmer than average conditions on the East Coast this winter, though bursts of cold weather could still bring significant storms to Long Island.

The agency’s outlook for the 2024-25 season shows a continuing trend of winters dominated by above-average temperatures. Despite an expectation of overall normal precipitation levels in the Northeast, the elevated temperatures could enhance storms, said John Gottschalk, chief of the weather service’s operational prediction branch.

"Storminess along the East Coast may be more impacted with the warmer coastal temperatures, which are running above normal," Gottschalk said during a briefing with reporters Thursday. He added there could be "more rain and ice" as a result of storms in the region.  

Forecasters said a weak La Nina global weather pattern, which is associated with cooler average ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean during the winter months, has a 60% chance to develop this fall. Last year, the opposing natural climate pattern — El Nino — was in effect. By late winter or early spring, the La Nina pattern is expected to subside to neutral conditions, according to the National Weather Service.

"We’re in a very different place than last year where we had a very strong El Nino," said Gottschalk. "This year, we’re going into probably a weak, short-duration La Nina event."

Rich Von Ohlen, a NewsdayTV meteorologist, said temperatures for December through February on Long Island are forecast to be about 2 to 4 degrees warmer than usual. 

Still, La Nina winters, he said, have the tendency of having "pops" of cold air that — if the timing lines up — could bring severe weather.

"Because it is winter, we’re still prone to short, quick, very cold outbreaks," Von Ohlen said. "If the timing works out that there is precipitation, we could get that one big snowstorm again that would throw the numbers compared to what the normals would be."

During past La Nina winters, Von Ohlen said snowfall totals have varied due to that timing factor.

During the 2022-23 La Nina winter, Long Island MacArthur Airport received just 5 inches of snow in a season that featured historically low snow amounts for the region, even though an arctic outbreak came through in February. Weather service data shows 39.3 inches of snowfall during the 2016-17 season, which experienced the same global climate pattern.

"La Nina winters have a tendency to produce extended periods where nothing is happening" before "brief, intense periods" take over, Von Ohlen said.

The last month Long Island experienced above-average snowfall was in January 2022, when 31.8 inches fell at Long Island MacArthur Airport. A single storm in late January that winter dropped 24.7 inches. 

Warmer temperatures have become more common as average global temperatures increase due to human-induced climate change. 

That warming "is tough to overcome," Von Ohlen said. "Even with shifting winter patterns and seasonal patterns, it's overall difficult to offset the effects of the warming planet and climate change."

By Joseph Ostapiuk

joseph.ostapiuk@newsday.com@OstapiukJ