Was Kamala Harris right? Is Poland the next target for Russia?

One of the memorable moments of Tuesday’s presidential debate was when Donald Trump refused, twice, to answer a direct question about whether he wants Ukraine to win its war against Russian aggression, instead saying only that he wanted it finished. No less memorably, Vice President Kamala Harris told her Republican rival that if he had been president when the Russian invasion of Ukraine happened, Vladimir Putin would now be sitting in Kyiv, greedily eyeing Poland as his next prey.

Was that a mere scare tactic, or a real possibility? Is Poland in danger if Ukraine falls?

While Poland, unlike Ukraine, was never part of the Soviet Union, it was part of the Soviet bloc during the Cold War — and part of the Russian empire from 1815 to 1918, subject to brutal political and cultural repression. There is no question that Putin’s ambitions to restore the empire of the czars include Poland, at least in Putin's mind.

Poland’s membership in NATO, which obliges other NATO countries to join in its defense, certainly provides some deterrent. But given that the United States and European powers are understandably determined to avoid direct conflict with Russia, with the terrifying potential of nuclear escalation, Putin may well believe the West would also be reluctant to come to Poland’s defense — especially if Poland can be made to look like the aggressor.

Had Russia succeeded in its initial goal of rapidly defeating Ukraine, annexing the east and reducing the rest to a subservient state with a Moscow-friendly regime in Kyiv, the triumph would have no doubt fueled Putin’s appetite for Poland. A conciliatory stance by the United States — a real possibility, had a Trump administration been in the White House in 2022 — would have further increased that appetite.

Whether Russia would have succeeded in a war against Poland is another question. NATO would have likely mustered the will to fight. Russia would also have likely faced resistance to its rule in conquered Ukraine, especially if it tried to deploy Ukrainian resources to wage war on Poland. A Russian invasion of Poland would have likely resulted in a grueling war of attrition, with Russia bogged down as it is now in Ukraine — not a Russian win, but still a tragedy for Poland.

One fact is unquestionable: Poland regards Russia as a dangerous neighbor, particularly since the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Last May, it announced a $2.5 billion program — the "East Shield" — to strengthen its defenses along its borders with Russia and Belarus, a Russian ally. Poland has boosted its defense spending and is expanding its armed forces, with a target of 300,000 troops from the current 190,000. In July, Poland’s army chief of staff General Wieslaw Kukula explicitly said that the country must "prepare [its] forces for full-scale conflict."

If Russia manages to end the war in Ukraine on terms Putin considers favorable, keeping conquered territories and imposing conditions that would weaken Ukraine’s defenses in the future — the kind of deal a Trump administration would likely try to impose on Ukraine — it certainly won’t be as dangerous to its other neighbors as a victorious Russia would have been in 2022, since nearly three years of war have depleted its military. Nonetheless, the threat of a new Russian buildup will be real.

Would Poland be in danger from an aggressive and emboldened Russia — which is also a concern for Polish Americans, as Harris suggested during the debate? If we listen to Poland itself, the answer is yes.

Opinions expressed by Cathy Young, a writer for The Bulwark, are her own.

By Cathy Young

Cathy Young is a writer for The Bulwark.