In Ukraine, the U.S. is effectively in the Kremlin's corner

Less than two weeks from the 100-day mark of Donald Trump’s second presidential term, peace in Ukraine, which he repeatedly promised to negotiate in one day, seems as distant as ever. While the peace talks are limping along, it is increasingly clear that Russian President Vladimir Putin doesn’t want peace on any terms that wouldn’t give him a victory — while Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy isn’t interested in capitulation. And many of the signals coming from the Trump administration and Trump himself give good reasons to fear that the United States is effectively in the Kremlin’s corner.

The partial ceasefire negotiated in March that enjoined both sides against strikes on each other’s energy infrastructure looks increasingly meaningless, with Russia raining missiles on Ukrainian cities and causing devastating casualties. Trump has issued feeble condemnations ("We’d like them to stop," "I don’t like the bombing") but hasn’t taken any action other than extending the sanctions previously imposed by Joe Biden. Earlier this week, he spoke dismissively of Zelenskyy’s offer to buy 10 U.S.-made Patriot missile shield systems for $15 billion, saying that the Ukrainian president "is always looking to purchase missiles."

Meanwhile, the U.S. has effectively blocked a joint statement by the G-7 group of leading industrial democracies condemning Russia’s missile attack on the Ukrainian city of Sumy, which killed 35 people and injured 119 on Palm Sunday. The Trump administration reportedly is worried that such a statement will disrupt the peace efforts.

But what exactly are those peace efforts yielding? Trump’s envoy to Moscow, Steve Witkoff, a businessman with no experience in foreign policy or diplomacy, has come back with the message that the best way to end the war is to give Russia the four Ukrainian provinces (in addition to Crimea) Putin illegally annexed in September 2022. Given that Russia doesn’t fully control even a single one of these provinces, such a scenario is not going to happen.

Trump’s more Ukraine-friendly Kyiv envoy Keith Kellogg, in turn, has proposed a post-ceasefire arrangement in which peacekeeping responsibilities along a demilitarized zone separating Russian-occupied areas from the rest of Ukraine would be divided among troops from different countries, not including the U.S. But that may be a nonstarter, since Russia has repeatedly made it clear it will not agree to the presence of European forces on Ukrainian soil.

So far, judging by the increased rate of Russian attacks on civilians, it seems that the negotiations are emboldening the Kremlin. There is little doubt Putin sees Trump’s willingness to talk to him, both in person and via Witkoff, as validation. Trump’s occasional expressions of frustration with Putin’s stalling tactics — which derailed a proposed 30-day complete ceasefire to which Zelenskyy had agreed — have not led to any of the tough measures Trump had once promised. And the U.S. president continues to blame Biden and Zelenskyy for the war far more than he does Putin.

Some commentators, including Ukrainians and Russian dissidents, have said that Putin is masterfully manipulating Trump by stroking his ego and feeding him Russian propaganda narratives. Others see Trump’s behavior as something more sinister: evidence that he is, as some have long claimed, a "Manchurian candidate" for the Kremlin. Conspiracy theories aside, the simplest explanation is that Trump’s "might is right" worldview favors strongmen — and assumes that Russia’s size and power give it the right to bully Ukraine.

Whether the U.S. will remain an ally to Ukraine now depends on whether enough Republicans in Congress can stand up to Trump’s bullying.

Opinions expressed by Cathy Young, a writer for The Bulwark, are her own.

By Cathy Young

Cathy Young is a writer for The Bulwark.