Camp Cuomo spun his numbers in advance

The pre-emptive spin for Tuesday night's election results began in earnest more than two weeks ago when Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo declared "these are complicated times" -- and said 51 percent of the vote would be a victory.

On Monday, Democratic consultant Hank Sheinkopf posted a brief analysis distributed by the Cuomo camp with the clear intent of framing expectations by describing what he called a "bleak landscape" for Democratic incumbents nationally.

"Incumbent Democratic governors elected in 2010 and running for a second term are nearly all facing tougher than normal races," Sheinkopf wrote before voting began. "More than anyone else they are tied to the slow national economic recovery and growing anti-Obama/Democratic sentiment that has been building for the last six years, despite the President's re-election."

Months earlier, it was widely assumed that Cuomo would win, but would still go all out to maximize his victory margin.

Cuomo & Co. seemed to anticipate critics saying the outcome proved less than stellar given the governor's incumbency and $45 million-to-$5 million funding advantage.

The past three New York governors to win second terms were Hugh Carey, Mario Cuomo and George Pataki. Carey, a Democrat, did it in 1978 with just under 51 percent against Assembly GOP Minority Leader Perry Duryea. The elder Cuomo got a remarkable 65 percent in 1986 to beat Republican Westchester County Executive Andrew O'Rourke. Republican Pataki won in 1998 with 54 percent against Democratic New York City Council Speaker Peter Vallone.

The closest parallel to this year's race might be that first Pataki re-election. Vallone captured only 33 percent, but Tom Golisano, an Independence Party candidate, carved out 8 percent, probably suppressing Pataki's share of the vote more than he did Vallone's.

In this race, Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins was on track to draw a chunk of votes from the left of Cuomo, thus limiting the incumbent's percentage even as Cuomo led the other major-party candidate, Republican Rob Astorino, by a substantial margin.

For nearly four years in office, Cuomo has delayed declaring whether the state should authorize or ban large-scale hydraulic fracturing for natural gas, drawing criticism from advocates on both sides, including anti-fracker Hawkins.

Alienation of different groups also blossomed over school and teacher issues, as it did earlier over new gun-control laws.

With the race over, it makes sense to look back on the wave of broadcast attacks that Cuomo's campaign launched against Astorino. They targeted the Republican's record as Westchester County executive to offset criticism of the governor on these hot issues, and to answer nasty claims from the Astorino camp.

For his part, consultant Sheinkopf cited troubled Democratic governorships in Louisiana, Arkansas, Illinois and Colorado to show the party's bleak landscape.

That said, 76-year-old Jerry Brown won a second term in his second incarnation as California governor Tuesday night, defeating Republican challenger Neel Kashkari by a hefty margin.

For Cuomo, the postelection message might go: A win is a win, as "complicated" as the times may be.

By Dan Janison

dan.janison@newsday.comDanJanison

Dan Janison is a member of the Newsday editorial board.