Harris without Biden is a down-ballot mystery soon to be solved
Vice President Kamala Harris campaigns Tuesday as the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate in West Allis, Wis. Credit: AP/Kayla Wolf
One big strategic question in Republican-run Long Island and Democratic-run New York State is whether Vice President Kamala Harris’ fill-in candidacy for president will affect down-ballot races in November any differently than if President Joe Biden had stayed the course.
The instant optimistic response from Democrats is that the party’s one-of-a-kind handoff from Biden to Harris will boost turnout here — by better energizing younger, minority and female voters, especially in places where Republican Donald Trump is widely unacceptable.
Just the same, Republicans and others set on recouping the White House for Trump are quickly shifting the "throw-em-out" vitriol to Harris, with negative messaging on the migrant crisis, foreign policy, and her blue-state California background, including aspersions case on her time in San Francisco.
The potential impact of the switch has to be considered unpredictable for the moment. As we approach the last 100 days until Election Day, it’s in some ways a new campaign, and in other ways, the same.
Whether Harris helps or hurts down-ballot turnout or doesn’t change it "is the question of the day," said a veteran Democrat who declined to be identified. "She’s generating the kind of excitement which does not last forever. But she could help draw more people of color and more women to the polls in the 4th Congressional District for (Democrat) Laura Gillen."
Gillen, the former Town of Hempstead supervisor, is trying to unseat first-term Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito. She lost to him during the midterm "red wave" of 2022, but historically, Democratic turnout across the state is maximized in a presidential year. The margin last time for D'Esposito was 10,000 of more than 270,000 votes cast.
Democrat John Avlon’s challenge to first-term Republican Rep. Nick LaLota in the 1st Congressional District has its own feel. The incumbent is loyal to Trump, as expected in the GOP, but to indicate moderation, LaLota has also sent out mailers that emphasize bipartisan cooperation on certain legislation.
Avlon, a former journalist, has been avoiding hyperbolically partisan statements. Of Biden’s withdrawal, Avlon tweeted Monday: "Yesterday was a day for honoring President Joe Biden’s historic presidency and his selfless decision to step aside from this election. Today is the day to pass the torch to a new generation....”
Some Democrats had advised others against pressuring Biden out of the race. Having lost that argument, one of these party loyalists said Tuesday he has warned others against congressional and state legislative candidates "panicking" if Harris struggles under the nasty attacks that are coming.
Facing the 59-year-old Harris, Trump, at 78, becomes the older candidate in the race. But his support within the GOP looks unshakable, especially so after the horribly close attempt on his life in Pennsylvania.
For some time New York Republican chairman Ed Cox has been predicting what might have seemed, or still seems, like the impossible — that Trump would carry the state and its 28 electoral votes. In 2020 Trump/Pence lost New York to Biden/Harris by nearly 2 million votes. That was before Trump’s scandalous 2021 attempt to nullify the election, and the multiple indictments it brought, and well before the ex-president’s Manhattan felony conviction.
Locally and nationally, just how different will this whole election be from what it would have been if Biden had not moved aside? Nobody can tell at this point.
Columnist Dan Janison's opinions are his own.
Dan Janison is a member of the Newsday editorial board.
