Post-scandal special elections like the one in CD3 have a special dynamic
Former Reps. Anthony Weiner, left, and George Santos, both vacated their seats after memorable scandals. Credit: Charles Eckert, Howard Schnapp
An oh-so-slight sense of deja vu arrives this month on the Long Island political scene.
The upcoming special election to decide who finishes the unexpired term of ex-Rep. George Santos echoes in several ways the ad hoc September 2011 race to succeed ex-Rep. Anthony Weiner.
Both Santos and Weiner vacated their seats amid memorable scandals. As in Weiner’s 9th Congressional District, Santos’ CD3 includes parts of Queens. Candidates in both special elections brought in outsiders to help.
CD3, as did CD9, features a familiar face on one side and a newer personal brand on the other. Then as now, the political world speculates about how this singular clash could affect a looming redistricting “do-over” as well as the next presidential and congressional campaigns.
But this latest off-cycle battle between veteran Democrat Tom Suozzi and Republican Nassau Legis. Mazi Melesa Pilip also differs markedly from that 2011 special. On Sept. 13 of that year, a relatively unknown Republican, Bob Turner, defeated a legacy Democrat, David Weprin, to succeed the disgraced Democrat Weiner — for a while.
In the race at hand, it was Santos, the Republican, who became an instant embarrassment to his party due to his fabricated biography and his alleged financial fraud. He was expelled from Congress.
Weiner, on the other hand, was a seasoned politician before he was found to have sent sexually suggestive photos of himself to a young woman and lied about it. Unable to quell the controversy as it grew, he resigned.
Another important contrast is the polarized national politics of this moment.
When Turner won in 2011, there was less urgency; the GOP held a decisive 242-192 House majority.
Today, Republicans again hold the majority but by a much closer 219-213, so this time, the stakes in New York are far higher. For the second time in two years, Democrats here are scrambling to redraw district maps to improve their chances in the fall.
The turnout dynamic figures to be different as well. The 2011 special election in CD9 was held on primary day when many borough voters would already be at the polls. This time, the Mazi-Suozzi House battle will be the only one on the ballot in only one district, giving the contest extra national focus.
Special elections choose substitutes for those who have vacated seats, but only through the next general election matchup.
Nobody would know the transient nature of a special-election victory better than Gov. Kathy Hochul. She won one, also in 2011, for CD26 in western New York — to succeed Republican Rep. Chris Lee, who’d resigned after his solicitation of a woman on Craigslist was revealed.
In 2012, after her district was redrawn, Hochul lost the general election to Republican Chris Collins (who years later pleaded guilty to insider trading, necessitating another special election). In Queens, Turner, too, was out in 2012 due to redistricting; the CD9 he represented was cut up in such a way that Turner would have had to face Rep. Greg Meeks in an overwhelmingly Democratic district. Turner decided not to run.
Now, three presidential elections later, the Democrats who run down-ballot statewide in November expect to have their usual four-year advantage as well as their party’s likely opportunity to redraw CD3 if desired.
But as those disclaimers in ads suggest, past performance does not guarantee future results. Both sides know that.
Columnist Dan Janison's opinions are his own.
Dan Janison is a member of the Newsday editorial board.
