Paradise takes another hit from Milton

What to do when paradise is lost?

That’s the stark reality confronting a lot of people who in their retirement or even before that moved to their version of earthly utopia and discovered it has problems, too.

At this moment, it’s transplanted Floridians who this year alone have weathered hurricanes Debby, Helene and, this past week, Milton. You can hear the doubt in their weary, storm-battered voices. Some lament that all they had is now gone. Some admit that they don’t think they can keep going through this.

The original “Paradise Lost” was written by the great poet Milton. The current version is being coauthored by a different Milton, adding poignancy to the poet’s words about a different sort of resiliency: “Awake, arise or be forever fall’n.”

The vision of many Floridians awaking to a fraught future is not merely anecdotal. Florida is still by far the state of choice for retirees to flee to — but now it’s also the state from which the most retirees flee. And it’s not close.

A SmartAsset study this year of 2022 Census data shows that 171,343 retirees moved into Florida, and 94,053 retirees moved out. Where are they going? Realtor.com found that while 8.9% of the outward flow among Florida’s 65-plus set over the last 10 years was to Georgia and 7.2% to North Carolina, the first and third-most popular destinations, sitting right between them at 7.5% was New York. Studies point to the exodus trend continuing.

Obviously, a reversal of the flow of retirees bringing their pensions and savings to Florida would have huge consequences for the Sunshine State — economically, politically, and emotionally in terms of how residents there think about themselves and their state. We know something about that here on Long Island.

For decades, Northerners flocked to Florida for its sandy beaches, year-round sunshine, cheaper homes, and absence of a state income tax. Now home prices are rising, the weather is getting hotter and more humid, and the storms fiercer and more common. With temperatures continuing to rise, it’s sobering to consider that whatever conditions we have today are probably the best we’re going to have for decades to come. Even if the fight against a warming climate ratchets up, noticeable results will be a long time coming. Which means storms will only get even more intense. Helene and Milton were not blips, they were warning flags — with big dollar strings attached.

Paying no income tax pales next to the expense of rebuilding a home, and insurance costs in Florida are skyrocketing — up 102% since 2021, triple the national average, according to Realtor.com.

If folks start rejecting Florida as their retirement destination, where they decide to go — not to mention whether — is an open question. Other popular destinations have not been immune.

The rising ocean has been slowly but surely eating away at North Carolina’s coast and its western region that some folks explicitly sought out as a climate haven was ravaged by Helene. A similar dynamic is playing out in South Carolina. Arizona is going to have a water supply crisis soon, and Phoenix this year had 113 consecutive 100-degree days. Texas has been beset by summer and winter storms that wreak havoc and knock out power grids.

Milton is just the latest retirement plan threat. It left 3 million customers without power, dumped 18 inches of rain in St. Petersburg in 24 hours, spawned dozens of tornadoes, ripped the roof at Tropicana Field to shreds, forced untold numbers of water rescues, and caused as much as $180 billion in damages and economic loss, as per AccuWeather. And its death toll is climbing.

After Milton departed, numerous officials from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on down said the state had dodged a bullet.

You get what they meant. The destruction could have been worse. But even if they did dodge this bullet, they seem to be losing the war.

Columnist Michael Dobie’s opinions are his own.

By Michael Dobie

michael.dobie@newsday.commwdobie

Michael Dobie is a member of the Newsday editorial board.