Pelosi was right to push China's buttons

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi caused quite a commotion this week.

Her visit to Taiwan infuriated China, ruffled feathers within the Biden Administration, and confounded foreign policy experts who still find themselves asking, “Why?”

Why would Pelosi make this trip now? What was she hoping to accomplish? Was it truly about international concerns, or was there a private domestic purpose for sticking it to the Chinese just before congressional midterms?

I certainly don’t have the answers.

But at face value, the House Speaker, who’s been vocal about human rights abuses in China for years, headed to Taipei in a show of solidarity to the tiny island nation. That’s good enough for me. The People’s Republic of China (mainland China) has been escalating its saber rattling over the Republic of China (Taiwan), and it’s dangerous not to push back. Ask the Ukrainians. 

Pelosi clearly erred by not conferring with the Biden administration before announcing her trip, making U.S. foreign policy look sloppy. But by ignoring China’s histrionics and Biden’s entreaties to cancel the visit, Pelosi appeared resolved. That’s good for her image no doubt, and, I’d argue, good for the U.S. in the long run.

If anyone made a major error this week, it was mainland China. It made the Pelosi excursion a far bigger deal than it had to be. House Speaker Newt Gingrich visited Taiwan 25 years ago, and the Chinese government effectively shrugged. Other members of Congress have routinely visited the island nation in the intervening years without Chinese officials making so much as a peep.

But this time, China went all in on hyperbole, painting the trip as a major international aggression and, at one point, hinting that it might blast Pelosi’s plane from the sky. Pelosi didn’t blink, and no shots were fired at her aircraft. 

Good for her.

The difference between China in 1997, when Gingrich visited the region, and China today is significant. Back then, the Middle Kingdom was weaker both militarily and economically and eager to join the international community in trade after years of isolation and failed economic experiments that resulted in mass starvation.

Today, China’s government is downright belligerent. Its military is increasingly on par with ours, especially its navy, and its economic power is second only to ours. In 1997, China’s President Jiang Zemin viewed his country as ascending; China’s current President Xi Jinping sees China as ascendant. Major difference there.

Xi’s China acts as a bully in Southeast Asia, and there are no signs it will stop. Rattled U.S. allies in the region, including Japan, Australia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, if it can now be called an ally, need to know we have their backs. No other military force on earth can put a check on the PRC.

China, which we formally recognized in 1979 at Taiwan’s expense, has now put itself in a save-face situation, and we can expect it to retaliate in a measured way over the coming months. No one, including China, wants World War III.

Predictability is a cardinal virtue in international relations, but sometimes it pays to call an audible. Keeps the ill-wishers guessing. And that’s what the San Francisco Democrat did here, to the great surprise of many. 

One can support her trip and, at the same time, hope it doesn’t become a habit. Pelosi’s point was made. The Chinese government made it for her. They aren’t as confident as they like to project.

Opinions expressed by William F. B. O’Reilly, a consultant to Republicans, are his own. 

By William F. B. O'Reilly

@wfbor

William F. B. O'Reilly is a Newsday Opinion columnist. He works as a corporate and political communications consultant. He works with clients on the Republican side of the aisle.