Election could produce one of two unappetizing scenarios

Only a gambler or a fool would predict the winner of a presidential race as close as this one. But it’s a good bet that next Tuesday’s election will produce one of two unappetizing scenarios.

They are:

Scenario 1: More divided government and gridlock. Kamala Harris wins the presidency, Republicans narrowly win the Senate, Democrats get a small majority in the House.

Scenario 2: A Republican sweep. Donald Trump wins the presidency, and the GOP wins both the House and Senate.

In the first scenario, more gridlock seems inevitable, in large part because Republicans likely will regain the Senate majority they lost four years ago. However, their majority might be sufficiently small that a couple members could hold the balance of power, just like the past four years.

Since 2021, that control has been exercised by a conservative Democrat, West Virginia’s Joe Manchin, and a maverick Democrat-turned-independent, Arizona’s Kyrsten Sinema. Without them, Democratic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer often had only 49 of the 100 votes; with them, he had a bare majority that passed President Joe Biden’s key initiatives and confirmed most of his nominees.

Both chose not to seek reelection. In fact, the likelihood that Republicans will win Manchin’s seat is one reason they are virtually certain to regain the majority. The other is the prospect that, in ruby red Montana, they will finally unseat three-term Democrat Jon Tester.

Pending other close races, that would give them at least 51 seats, since all GOP incumbents seem headed for reelection, barring upsets.

But two of those 51 will be moderate Republicans, Maine Sen. Susan Collins and Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski. They refused to endorse Trump and would likely become keys to getting a majority on many votes, especially with a Democrat in the White House.

That’s because most Republicans will throw up a red wall against a President Harris on many judicial and executive branch confirmations, starting with votes to confirm her Cabinet. She would need at least two GOP votes to get most nominees confirmed.

Indeed, Harris would have to clear her top nominees with the Republican majority, especially Collins and Murkowski. That means her success could depend on her ability to negotiate with the GOP-controlled Senate, an area where she lacks Biden’s experience and relationships.

It only takes a majority to confirm nominees. But it still takes 60 votes to pass most legislation, except the annual reconciliation measure that carries out the budget’s tax and spending provisions — assuming Congress can pass a budget. Over the years, it has been the legislative vehicle for priority proposals, like GOP tax cuts and the Democrats’ Affordable Care Act.

That probably means the only major legislation Harris would likely have even a chance of getting enacted in the next two years would have to be included in that budget reconciliation measure. She would probably find it hard to make extensive changes — like raising taxes on the wealthy — when Congress considers extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts, which expire next year.

In the House, a new Democratic majority would probably stick together better than the small Republican majority did the past two years. Still, New York Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, the likely speaker of a Democratic House, could encounter difficulty because he lacks the experience of his predecessor, Nancy Pelosi.

Beyond that, the biggest benefit of a Harris victory would be the rejection — hopefully finally — of Trump. And the country would be far better off with even a constrained Harris presidency than the likeliest alternative — an unrestrained Trump presidency.

That’s exactly what might happen under Scenario No. 2: two years of Trump having much of the legislative power he savors, along with his robust view of executive power.

The leader of House Republicans, Speaker Mike Johnson, is a total Trump loyalist, and there are few GOP moderates left who would resist.

The Senate is more problematic — but only on legislation, not nominations. Since most bills require 60 votes, the Democratic minority would be able to block legislation it opposes. And the GOP majority will have new, untested leadership.

But it would be able to rubber-stamp Trump’s nominations. And congressional Republicans have already discussed what to include in THEIR budget reconciliation measure, since it would only need GOP votes.

They would want to extend the 2017 Trump tax cuts and add some of the additional ones Trump touted in the campaign, like making tips and all Social Security income nontaxable.

Some Republicans also want to use a reconciliation measure to revamp the Affordable Care Act, or even replace it. And on the spending side, they hope to include the deeper domestic spending cuts on which the House GOP has long been stymied by Democrats in the Senate and White House.

The size of a Republican majority could determine that. A 51-49 majority would give Collins and Murkowski some leverage to moderate any sweeping proposals from their more conservative GOP colleagues. One potential factor: Collins, 72 next month, is one of 20 Republican senators up for reelection in 2026 (along with just 13 Democrats).

A Republican Congress — like a Trump administration — might also spend considerable time investigating the prior Democratic administration.

But the important thing is that a GOP sweep next week would almost certainly give Trump free rein on Capitol Hill, at least until the 2026 midterm elections. That prospect is the Democrats’ — and the country’s — worst potential nightmare.

Carl P. Leubsdorf is the former Washington bureau chief of the Dallas Morning News. Readers may write to him via email at carl.p.leubsdorf@gmail.com.