It's a tough ride ahead on the MTA

As the Metropolitan Transportation Authority prepares its next five-year capital plan, this should be the time of hopeful wish-list making, a time for advocates and local elected officials to remind the MTA of all of Long Island’s needs and interests.

But just weeks before the MTA is set to submit its 2025-2029 capital program, the authority is facing tremendous uncertainty as to whether it will have the money for even basic maintenance and making the trains run on time, never mind expansion efforts and grand ideas that would improve the system.

An analysis from state Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli released last week sounded a dire warning — that the MTA could have “more in needs, including system improvement and expansion, than funds available.”

That’s especially true in light of Gov. Kathy Hochul’s troubling decision to halt — at least for now — congestion pricing, the effort to toll Manhattan’s central business district that was to produce $15 billion, and the lack of any concrete proposals to replace that revenue.

In the months after Hochul’s announcement, state officials have shown no urgency to find alternative funds to fill the MTA’s capital coffers. That affects the current capital plan, where the ability to finish some projects is still up in the air. It also impacts the 2025-2029 capital plan, which the MTA is due to submit by Oct. 1.

TOLL PLAN NOT ENOUGH

Even with $15 billion from the tolling plan, it would have been tough to meet all of the region’s public transportation needs — from keeping the system in a state of good repair and adding new rail cars to strengthening the system’s resiliency, jump-starting expansion projects and improving accessibility. Now, it’s likely impossible.

DiNapoli estimates the MTA’s capital needs could total between $57.8 billion and $92.2 billion. In assessing federal, state and city funds, along with bonding and asset sales, DiNapoli highlights a potential funding range from $30.8 billion to $86.5 billion. Only the upper-end figure includes congestion pricing funds.

That’s an enormous discrepancy.

If the MTA has to slow or stop investments, the system will begin to deteriorate. Once that starts, it’s awfully hard to stop. And it could, as the comptroller’s report says, “have compounding effects on the system’s state of good repair and services provided over time.” That could lead to reduced ridership, which still has not returned to pre-pandemic levels. Then other dominoes could fall, leading toward system failure.

DiNapoli’s analysis spells bad news for Long Island. State-of-good-repair projects are critical to maintaining the Long Island Rail Road, from switches and signals to tracks and stations. Old cars continue to roll along LIRR tracks because new cars are slow to come — and the scale of new purchasing remains uncertain due to the lack of clarity on capital funding. Accessibility is lacking in pockets across the system. Improvements to all of that are at risk, though it’s promising that MTA chairman Janno Lieber says he plans to “dramatically increase” new car spending.

Add to that the LIRR’s growth goals. At the top of that list: modernizing and electrifying the Main Line beyond Ronkonkoma, particularly to Yaphank. Combined with the ongoing effort to build a new Yaphank station near Brookhaven National Lab, this is likely the easiest and most cost-effective piece of the LIRR’s expansion plans.

SOUTH FORK CONNECTION

Also worthy: new sidings, station improvements and infrastructure upgrades to support the South Fork Commuter Connection, a train and shuttle bus system that has served the East End well. Laying the groundwork for improvements and eventual electrification to the Port Jefferson branch, including the construction of a new rail yard at the old Lawrence Aviation site, also is key. And with North Hempstead Town’s support for a Port Washington rail yard in place, the MTA should prioritize preparations for that project, too.

Maintaining the LIRR as the region’s economic engine means focusing on the condition and capacity of Jamaica station, as well as Penn Station and the Harold Interlocking, the critical junction in Queens that also serves Amtrak.

Without the planned revenue from congestion pricing and other funding streams, even routine needs, let alone significant expansion, will have to be postponed. The money just isn’t there.

While the MTA’s operating budget is separate from its capital program, combating fare evasion, which cost the system as much as $700 million last year, and continuing to improve the authority’s management, efficiency and oversight also are key to addressing budget woes.

But none of that will be enough. DiNapoli’s report is another flashing-red reminder of the MTA’s money hole. It wouldn’t be a stretch to see Hochul use it as an excuse for restarting congestion pricing after Election Day. If that happens, the governor will have to stick to the already-approved toll levels if she doesn’t want to set off a required new round of federal and state approvals.

Time is running out. The region’s job market and broader economy depend on its subways, buses and commuter railroads. If state officials don’t act quickly to fund the MTA’s capital needs, the region will head down the wrong track with no simple way to turn it around.