In picking a president, voters should ignore conventions and weigh records

Two consecutive presidents campaigning against each other is unprecedented, offering voters one unique advantage: Both have recent records in that office that we remember and can reference.

The Republican National Convention in Milwaukee last week was a fine show and Hulk Hogan provided some welcome comic relief, an antidote to the violent incident that preceded the event. As Donald Trump accepted his third consecutive nomination, he was somber with a touch of humility as he recounted how he fortuitously moved his head, dodging a bullet that could have done much more harm than clipping his ear. He fittingly paid tribute to Corey Comperatore, the volunteer fire chief who died protecting his family at the Butler, Pennsylvania rally.

Trump's campaign said it was all part of a softer message of unity. But his speech Thursday also rambled, with outlandish claims such as his boast that he could stop wars with a telephone call. And his message soon reverted to a nasty and divisive tone as Trump continued his false claims of election fraud in 2020 and labeled all the people who have come across the southern border as murderers, drug dealers or insane. He insisted the criminal cases against him were politically motivated and demanded the charges be dropped.

But even before the convention began, voters could already compare the administrations of Trump and Democratic incumbent Joe Biden. As critics or as fans, we are all in a position to fairly judge how both men conducted themselves while on the job.

RECORDS TO RUN ON

Trump showed us between 2017 and 2021 how he governs. Biden, who as of this moment is on the shaky threshold of being nominated a second time, did the same from 2021 to now. And if Vice President Kamala Harris is substituted for Biden, as some Democrats seem to desire, she would still be representing and answering for the current administration.

We have records to go by. Speeches and balloon drops don't alter history.

Political conventions in both parties evolved long ago into a mix of partisan rallies and entertainment venues. Delegates and appealing figures with compelling personal stories become props for "getting the message out." The spin and rhetoric almost always stand in sharp contrast with what we saw and heard during either party’s most recent empowerment.

Challengers always promise change from the person currently in the job. But the facts of what a president did or tried to do cannot be changed retroactively. The task for the honest public will be to assess what those actions portend.

Doing that correctly means dismissing contrived narratives and resisting the gaslighting that says all of the 45th president's prosecutions are persecutions. The most undeniable and underlying facts cited are part of Trump's record.

Four years ago, the Democrats made much of Trump’s dubious leadership in response to a massive public health crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic. Now Republicans as White House outsiders are pointing, in turn, to Biden’s weak response to the southern border influx as a major failure. Both are accurate assessments.

CONTEXT MATTERS

But circumstances matter as well. Trump’s choices on judges, taxes and regulations during his term would have been stymied if, say, both houses of Congress had Democratic majorities before the midterms. Conversely, the current party makeup of Congress, with Republicans controlling the House in the past two years, has made a big difference to Biden’s initiatives.

We also go into the election with good background knowledge of how both parties’ legislators tilt and perform on abortion, gun violence, culture-war issues and foreign alliances, whether they’re in the majority or the minority.

Their record is pretty much written, too.

As we’ve seen for a long time, control of Congress is crucial to what presidential candidates can credibly promise. That’s as it should be, in a system designed for checks and balances, to prevent authoritarianism.

Realities and categories can change quickly. U.S. responses to Gaza, Ukraine and Taiwan are now shaped in part by the choices other countries have made.

Teasing out the exact credit or blame on economic matters is always a spin game, whether it involves inflation, corporate taxes, employment, or the impact of infrastructure investment. And we have learned from the past eight years that the stock market is no true measure of presidential performance.

Trump has had his convention moment. Given all we know about his many years of controversial behavior and political tactics, the U.S. now has to honestly decide whether we believe he’s now all about national unity, or unity within the party he controls, which he’s already achieved.

Similarly, has the Biden-Harris team lived up to the rhetoric of 2020, given what we know about the current term? These are open questions, not answers.

With the convention over, Trump begins the next phase of the campaign stronger than ever. Biden seeks to rebound from his lackluster debate performance and his party's infighting about whether he will be on a Chicago stage next month accepting his party's nomination. The national conversation will again be accusatory and filed with dubious promises. 

The past may not guarantee future results — but it's still the best indicator of what might happen in the future.