Canada's election is a warning to Trump on trade, diplomacy
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney arrives at his office the morning after the Liberal Party won the Canadian federal election in Ottawa Tuesday. Credit: AP/Justin Tang
The election victory of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberal Party he leads in his nation’s Parliament should be taken as a warning in Washington against unhinged diplomacy.
President Donald Trump’s ill-advised threat to rob Canada of its independence by annexing it as a "51st state" plainly provoked our neighbors to the north to rally behind Carney in a repudiation of the colonizing instincts of the American president. Carney was given a mandate Tuesday to fight the trade war that Trump launched by imposing heavy tariffs on Canadian goods, purportedly to pressure a better "deal" between the two countries.
Trump’s imperial puffery isn’t a joke to its intended audience. Traditionally "nice" Canadians now even boo American sports teams and have canceled travel to the U.S. Serious citizens have even discussed how the nation could fend off a U.S. invasion if necessary. "As I’ve been warning for months, America wants our land, our resources, our water, our country," Carney said in his victory speech. "President Trump is trying to break us so he can own us."
Carney is an economist who as governor of the Bank of Canada guided monetary policy following the 2008 financial crisis. Later, as governor of the Bank of England, he led the central bank’s response to Brexit. It makes one wary of the matchup of Carney’s economic know-how against the impulsive and poorly reasoned moves of Trump. It's easy to picture how Canada’s recoil against Trump’s trade war and absurdly hostile braying could end up costing Americans, including New Yorkers, big-time.
Last month, Trump’s trade war hit home in the Empire State. The government of Ontario province said it would impose a surcharge on electricity to three U.S. states — New York, Michigan and Minnesota. Trump, in retaliation, threatened to ramp up tariffs on Canada imports. But Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said they had a "productive conversation" pending further negotiation.
The U.S. and Canada are linked by a network of 31 power lines across the border. That shared energy system includes a complex agreement on distribution and costs. New York is also a major importer of stones, mineral fuels, and aluminum from Ontario.
Before Trump’s alienation, Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre, running on crime and tax issues with a certain MAGA flair — and Trump's explicit endorsement — seemed poised to become prime minister and have a strong majority of seats. But on Tuesday, he not only failed to unseat Carney and the Liberals from government — he also lost the parliamentary seat he had held for 20 years.
Fortunately, Carney describes his position on tariffs rationally and without petulance, acknowledging that escalating the wrong way would hurt his country. The G-7 forum of industrialized nations meets in Alberta in June. If Carney builds influence as a responsible adult in the room, that could help guide U.S. policy to some workable solution.
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