Trump administration shows chaos is no substitute for governance

President Donald Trump’s early blizzard of statements, orders, attacks on institutions, mass firings and culture-war initiatives are spawning numerous court challenges. It has yet to reach the point where anyone can predict the overall impact on Long Island, or the rest of the nation.

Much of this Washington fireworks show relates to money. The underlying conflicts and concerns about taxing and spending are real. If Congress cannot agree by Friday on appropriations for the short term, we may see a new Trump-era government shutdown.

Even before lawmakers get to debate budgets, top White House adviser Elon Musk and now cabinet secretaries are moving ahead with layoffs, contract cancellations, sales of government properties, and significant shake-ups of current government functions. Who is really in charge? The resulting haphazard outlook is a public sense of organizational and economic limbo. Predictability in governance is suddenly scarce.

PRICES AND TARIFFS

Campaigning against inflation, Trump vowed to “immediately bring prices down, starting on day one” of his second presidency. While it’s still early, all roads now lead in the opposite direction. He’s switched tariffs on and off, here and there. Investment markets shake and shudder in response, worrying those with retirement plans and employees of the companies affected.

On Long Island, tariffs on building materials, including steel, lumber and drywall, will spike construction costs, local business leaders say, and homebuyers and commercial ventures will pay. Groceries have gotten more expensive, and many more items also are going up. Ask any plumber about copper costs.

This is distinct from the important global question of whether the U.S. will really benefit from the pressure these new tariffs put on other countries. Already there is blowback, with Ontario planning a new 25% surcharge on electric power sent to New York and other states.

DOGE

Government efficiency and sweeping reform always make for a popular and justifiable goal. Hailed by Trump in his annual congressional address last week, Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency has identified a crazy quilt of billions in spending and resulting service cuts and has commenced layoffs, through a tech team unfamiliar with government systems and purposes. The legal status and limits of DOGE haven’t even been defined in a court decision, yet tens of thousands of federal workers were laid off. Thousands of others initially agreed to Musk-promoted buyouts. Before Musk began brandishing a chain saw, there were about 17,000 federal civilian jobs on Long Island.

Targeting layoffs by using high-tech data streams, unrestrained by common sense, doesn’t inspire confidence. DOGE recently misread data to conclude critical workers such as bird flu experts and those who monitor nuclear safety could be let go. Then there are false claims Trump made in his congressional address that millions of people well past 100 years old were receiving Social Security benefits. Yes, there are 18.9 million names in the database of people over 100 but according to Social Security Administration records, 89,106 people over 99 receive a government check.

BENEFIT CUTS

Amid rhetoric from Trump and Congress about weeding out waste and fraud, current funding bills being discussed could include cuts to Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare. We don’t yet know how drastically spending on these giant health programs for the poor, infirm and elderly will be cut.

Beyond that, tens of thousands of Long Islanders receive federal food assistance. Cuts are being eyed to the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, which funds that help, as well as to Long Island Housing Services, a nonprofit that investigates enforcement of fair housing laws.

IMPACTS ON STATES

New White House cuts are expected to put big-time pressure on states to absorb the cost of assistance programs, including Medicaid. Plans to eliminate the $268 billion Department of Education could have a funding impact on local schools and colleges. There’s no credible assurance this won’t end up increasing local property taxes. The threatened abolition of the Federal Emergency Management Agency stands to affect storm and flood response on Long Island. Will Environmental Protection Agency plans to chop green energy grants and other programs crush New York’s efforts to slash carbon emissions through alternative energy sources? Department of Veterans Affairs plans to lay off at least 76,000 employees nationwide sound particularly unnecessary.

Just as another Washington-style fiscal cliff looms, institutional and judicial challenges await that should force Congress to stand up for its own constitutional power.

What and how the federal government spends ultimately will be decided by the Supreme Court, as it makes new constitutional law defining the powers of the presidency. The court will determine whether a president can control independent agencies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Federal Trade Commission and even the Federal Reserve and impound funds ordered by Congress to be spent.

The other check on an imperial presidency is Congress. Its members will need to consider carefully the protests and admonishments of all their constituents, and clearly explain why they accept or reject them. There is a reason our founders called for House members to be elected every two years. Commonsense plans of action are in short supply these days, and so far we’re not seeing that from our federal representatives.

The public might crave change, but it must be orderly. It’s up to Congress to bring stability back to governance.