Will Avlon's big win unlock DCCC gold rush?

Daily Point

A primary fight may not be so bad after all

John Avlon’s disciplined campaign and stunning 70% win in CD1's Democratic primary Tuesday could very well land him in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's top tier of seats that can be flipped from red to blue. But it's not likely to happen overnight.

Avlon, who will face freshman Republican incumbent Nick LaLota in the general election, told The Point Wednesday that he thinks the size of his win over Nancy Goroff and two strong fundraising quarters, showing a proven ability to raise money, will get noticed by the national party. There is a growing awareness, Avlon told The Point, “that this is a prime pickup opportunity in the region, if not the country.”

Avlon said Wednesday was a big fundraising day for the campaign.

One Democratic strategist familiar with the DCCC's thinking, however, said that there are other New York seats with freshman Republican incumbents that are more winnable, especially CD4 in southwestern Nassau County which has more registered Democrats than Republicans.

They note that Anthony D’Esposito's win against Laura Gillen in 2022 came in a gubernatorial election cycle when GOP candidate Lee Zeldin ran a very strong race on Long Island.

In a presidential year, which usually garners big turnout, Democrats say there is an easier path for Gillen. Two upstate GOP seats, CD19 held by Marc Molinaro and CD22 held by Brandon Williams, are higher on their list right now, the source said. If there is any major infusion of DCCC funds to CD1, “It will likely be late in the game.”

However, another prime Democratic fundraiser familiar with the DCCC's thinking told The Point that Avlon will be getting another look sooner rather than later.

Avlon is getting longer odds right now because the former Zeldin district is perceived as favoring Donald Trump at the top of the ticket. Overlaying CD1's boundaries from the 2022 redistricting onto the Suffolk election districts Trump won in 2020, the political insider Cook Report calculates it as Trump +2 district, rather than a district Biden carried under the old lines. Right now, it is labeled “likely Republican.”

The Point asked Avlon whether the primary with Goroff, who ran to his left, was actually a benefit. “There are silver linings on this side of the primary. Getting a 70% win is clarifying, energizing and galvanizing for the whole party,” he said. Yet, getting hit with $1.2 million worth of negative ads by Goroff was difficult. On the brighter side, he said, the primary raised his name ID and made it harder for the GOP to paste him with a “far left” label.

— Rita Ciolli rita.ciolli@newsday.com

Pencil Point

Trump's VP pick

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Final Point

A begrudging MTA vote

The Metropolitan Transportation Authority board spent most of its Wednesday meeting lamenting the “pause” to congestion pricing, worrying about the impact it would have on the authority’s capital plan and emphasizing the need to address key climate change and public transit concerns.

But over and over again, board members emphasized there was nothing they could do to overrule the pause, instituted by Gov. Kathy Hochul earlier this month.

And so, when it came down to voting, the board — with the exception of Nassau County representative David Mack — approved a resolution that delayed the start of congestion pricing until state, city and federal officials sign off on the necessary federal paperwork.

At first glance, that resolution might look as if the board was backing the Hochul move. But board member after board member emphasized that that wasn’t the case, at times calling the decision “catastrophic” and “unfortunate.” Multiple members noted that the resolution did not undo their previous votes in favor of congestion pricing. And MTA officials affirmed that the resolution still commits the authority and the board to carrying out congestion pricing if and when those bureaucratic signoffs come through.

That’s why Mack — the board’s sole congestion pricing foe — voted “no.”

And Mack’s comments ruffled MTA chairman Janno Lieber.

“I am definitely for the capital plan. There is no doubt about it,” Mack said. “I want to see the MTA grow. I want to see everybody happy. But there are many other ways this can be accomplished. We’ve just got to find them.”

Lieber was quick to respond, pointing to Mack’s previous support for the capital plan.

“And yet, I’m pretty sure we all voted for the capital plan that included congestion pricing,” Lieber responded.

In his comments, Mack didn’t suggest any “other ways” to fund the MTA’s capital plan.

The exchange with Lieber is just the latest in an ongoing dispute between the two, which began in earnest two years ago, when Mack raised his middle finger at the MTA chief after not getting an MTA police placard for his car.

The board’s discussion and vote came after MTA officials outlined a scenario in which the current MTA capital plan would be cut by $16.5 billion. The expansion of the Second Avenue subway, accessibility improvements at numerous subway stations and two Long Island Rail Road stations, new train cars, zero-emission buses, work on the Verrazzano-Narrows Bridge, signal modernization work, and some state of good repair work are all on the chopping block — “deferred” until congestion pricing begins, or other funding sources are developed.

Among the board members who expressed support for congestion pricing was Long Islander Sammy Chu, who previously served as a representative for Suffolk County but is now a Hochul appointee. Without mentioning Hochul’s name or criticizing her directly, Chu emphasized his commitment to the environmental, safety and public transit benefits of congestion pricing.

“We cannot move forward with this unilaterally,” Chu said. “But … I hope that cool heads will prevail over time and we are able to do this and be a leader in this.”

Chu also tried to respond to suggestions that a smaller toll, or a solution that doesn’t adversely impact any drivers, would be better.

“Until we have the stomach to understand we’re not going to get the change we’re looking for without creating some form of discomfort, we’re not going to be able to move policies like this forward,” Chu said.

Fellow Hochul appointee Lisa Sorin joined Chu in his support for congestion pricing. But other Hochul appointees took a more tentative tack.

“I have confidence that our governor and our state legislature will be part of the team to help us find a solution to our shortfalls,” said Hochul appointee Haeda Mihaltses.

— Randi F. Marshall randi.marshall@newsday.com

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