All politics is local ... or Trump?

Daily Point

Can Trump upend the GOP’s control of Nassau?

This fall’s county and town elections in Nassau are sure to be influenced by President Donald Trump’s first nine months in the White House, but there is no certainty which way the Washington winds will blow on Long Island and whether the national mood will produce any surprise results.

Political operatives in Nassau are keeping a wary eye on the nation’s capital. If Trump is riding high in November, he surely will lift all Republican boats and keep the GOP in control of the county and its three towns. However, a continuing stock market dive and fears of a recession, never mind the funding repercussions of Elon Musk’s chain saw, could take a toll on the party in power.

"Washington will certainly be a factor," Joseph Cairo, the chairman of the Nassau County Republican Committee, told The Point. "There are things that are out of our control," he said, nevertheless predicting that when the president’s "game plan plays out ... he will still be very popular in Nassau County."

Cairo said that local elections "come down to different issues and the personalities of the candidate."

Nassau Democrats are hoping a strong Trump backlash this fall prompts some Republicans and independents to stay home and inspires Democrats to turn out. That dynamic, combined with local anti-casino sentiment in some GOP strongholds surrounding the Nassau Hub, gives Democrats hope of scoring a few wins.

A recent poll of Nassau by Democrats shows that GOP County Executive Bruce Blakeman’s favorability rating among all voters has remained consistent, more positive than negative. But his favorability has yet to cross the 50% threshold in those Democratic polls, according to a source in the party’s leadership. One statewide Democratic strategist said Blakeman remains "vulnerable," according to the polling the strategist has seen.

In a poll last month asking Nassau residents about a head-to-head match of Blakeman against Democratic challenger Seth Koslow, a still relatively unknown county legislator, the two are "dead even," according to the party source. "What’s important this fall is who is charged up to come out and who isn’t," the source said. But Nassau County Republicans have money, a strong ground operation, and an even higher purpose. A big win for Blakeman in Nassau could catapult him to the top of the list of GOP candidates to take on Gov. Kathy Hochul in 2026.

Asked for his reaction to the Democratic poll results, Cairo said, "It’s almost unbelievable," adding that Koslow is brand new to the political scene and "unknown throughout the county."

Cairo said the GOP has not done any recent polling, noting that "it’s only March," but he agreed that an incumbent wants to hit 50% in favorability to "feel secure." Republicans argue the ground has fundamentally shifted in Nassau and that it is now a reliably red county, like Suffolk.

But history does hold some hope for the Democrats.

Ed Mangano upset Tom Suozzi’s quest for a third term as Nassau County executive by 368 votes in 2009. It was a national story, interpreted as a backlash to President Barack Obama's historic win the year before and a sign of the rising strength of the Tea Party.

Then, in 2017, the first local election after Trump won his first term, Democrats staged a major upset in Hempstead Town. Laura Gillen defeated incumbent Supervisor Anthony Santino, allowing Democrats to take control of the town for the first time in a century. While that race also had a lot to do with local issues — like internal GOP political divisions in the town — the lesson remains vivid for Republicans concerned about a casino backlash in areas such as Garden City, long considered a solid base of support.

— Rita Ciolli rita.ciolli@newsday.com

Pencil Point

Pot of gold

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Reference Point

Warring past

Most of Newsday’s early years were shadowed by World War II. The paper was founded in September 1940; Nazi Germany had already marched into Paris and was bombing Britain incessantly.

Scrolling through Newsday’s archives, one can see through the writings of the editorial board how America was coming to grips with the peril that awaited. Writing 84 years ago this week, in a March 13, 1941 piece called "Uncle Sam, Ex-Pacifist," the board noted that until recently most Americans were pacifists and it criticized as "rather silly" the idea that the pacifist label was considered by some a "nasty name."

With Adolf Hitler’s forces carving up Europe, the board wrote, "Uncle Sam has had second thoughts about his pacificism." Defense spending was ramping up, and the Lend-Lease Act had recently been passed to allow President Franklin Roosevelt to lend, lease or sell military equipment to America's allies.

"In other words," the board wrote, "we are already in the war to the extent of working actively to help wipe out the Nazi menace. And wiping out the Nazi menace, we have found, just can’t be done through pacifism."

The board went further, noting that "force must be used to keep Hitler from spreading himself and his methods all over the world. Any other position, including the isolationist one that this war is none of our business, makes us allies of Hitler."

The board also wrote — presciently, as it turned out — that the battle in Europe was drawing closer to Long Islanders.

"There is a risk of war ahead," the board wrote. "But that risk is less than the risk that we shall find ourselves, before we realize it, facing the Axis alone. Americans are coming to understand this. This is why Uncle Sam is no longer a pacifist."

Nine months later, the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor and America was at war. And four years to the day after that Newsday editorial about the prospect of war, the board was lamenting its inevitable cost — the deaths and injuries suffered by the service members who went to battle.

In a March 13, 1945 piece called "Victory is Bloody," the board recounted the fierce battle over Iwo Jima, which was still raging with a massive casualty count on both sides when the piece was published. The board praised the Marines who were fighting to capture the Pacific Ocean island, extolling their "guts" and "willingness to die," writing, "That is why the American flag is flying on Iwo today."

But the board understood well the cost of winning.

"The price of victory is always blood — and plenty of it," the board lamented. "We can spill a little more or less by having mechanized equipment inferior or superior to the enemy’s, but we cannot avoid the cost in casualties. The foot soldier still does most of the fighting — and dying."

War — then, now, and always — is hell.

— Michael Dobie michael.dobie@newsday.com

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