For early voting trend on LI, fill in the 'blanks'

Daily Point

Reading the electoral tea leaves

In Nassau County, eyes remain focused on two main spots — the Town of North Hempstead and the City of Long Beach. Sources on both sides of the aisle told The Point Monday that it seems both are tipping Republican, as absentees and early voting showed strong Republican turnout, especially when accounting for "blanks" that could lean red.

One source called the race between North Hempstead Supervisor Jennifer DeSena and former Supervisor Jon Kaiman “extraordinarily close,” noting that the early Democratic turnout isn’t as high as party insiders had hoped.

According to early voting tallies, 12,397 voters in North Hempstead turned out — with 5,054 Democrats and 4,264 Republicans. But it’s the blanks that remain the critical question mark — and observers think those undeclared voters tend to lean Republican. A total of 2,694 blanks voted during the nine days of early voting in North Hempstead.

Also worth watching is one particular town board race — the battle in North Hempstead’s District 2, where Democratic incumbent Peter Zuckerman is up against Republican newcomer Edward Scott. Sources said the redistricted town makes the 2nd District more of a toss-up — and that DeSena’s strength could carry Scott, a retired NYPD officer who’s also a water district commissioner and civic association president.

If Scott and DeSena both win, that would tip the balance of the town board, giving DeSena the Republican majority she hasn’t had for the last two years.

Others are watching North Hempstead’s District 4 — an open seat because current board member Veronica Lurvey is running to be the town’s receiver of taxes. There, Democrat Christine Liu is up against Republican James W. Gounaris. While observers say the District 4 seat is more likely to remain in Democratic hands, a red wave that carries DeSena, Scott, and county legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip, whose 10th Legislative District overlaps with District 4, could also carry Gounaris, president of the Herricks school board. The flip side of that, however, is that Asian American voters make up nearly half of District 4, and they could choose to come out for both Liu and Pilip’s opponent, Weihua Yan.

LD 10 had an enormous early voting turnout, far larger than any other legislative district with 6,530 people voting — including 2,578 Republicans, 1,998 Democrats, and 1,758 blanks.

Eyes are also on how Lurvey does, compared with Kaiman. At least one source predicted Lurvey would garner more votes than Kaiman, especially since the negative ads that have pummeled Kaiman haven’t hit her as much.

Sources in North Hempstead are particularly paying attention to whether events across the world in Israel and Gaza will affect local races. While Kaiman, Lurvey, and Zuckerman are all Jewish, Pilip is in a particularly unique spot — as an Ethiopian Jew who migrated to Israel. But in conversations with The Point on Monday, sources said voters seem to be indicating that local issues like taxes, affordability, housing, and infrastructure will prevail over identity politics.

The other hot spot in Nassau County heading into Election Day is further south, in Long Beach, where the outcome may be similar: Sources with knowledge of the Long Beach political scene said the potential for a red wave there is high. It’s especially likely, the sources said, for Republican Patrick Mullaney to overcome Democrat Alexis Pace in a county legislative district that covers a broader area than just the city of Long Beach.

As for the five-seat city council, early voting tallies showed that 2,243 voters turned out in Long Beach, including 1,154 Democrats, 669 Republicans, and 312 blanks.

Under one scenario, sources suggested that Democrat James Hodge -— who took the most votes in Long Beach’s primary — could win a spot, along with two Republicans. Hodge has been under less of a spotlight as a newcomer, while the other two Democrats running this year -— incumbents Tina Posterli and Liz Treston -— have been the target of the bulk of the negative advertising and campaigning. Such a situation would keep control of the city council in Democratic hands since Hodge would join continuing council members John Bendo and Roy Lester — both Democrats. At least one source, however, suggested Hodge could act as a swing vote, at times potentially siding with a Republican minority.

But if all three Republicans win, control of the council would flip bright red.

— Randi F. Marshall randi.marshall@newsday.com and Karthika Namboothiri karthika.namboothiri@newsday.com

Pencil Point

Future tense

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— Michael Dobie michael.dobie@newsday.com

Correction

Mike Deery is spokesman for the Nassau County Republican Committee and was previously spokesman for the Town of Hempstead. His position was misstated in a Point item on Friday.

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