The battle for the 'blanks'

Daily Point

LI pols vie to draw ‘blanks’

For years, it has been noted that all around the state, the big third party to watch was not a party at all. It consists of voters unaffiliated with any party — those known as “blanks.” And that phenomenon has a big role to play in Tuesday’s election.

Registration in Suffolk County predicts the significance of the partyless. As of last week, according to the state Board of Elections, Suffolk County had 375,968 registered Democrats, 342,675 Republicans and 321,063 blanks. In 2022, blanks totaled 312,975, marking a one-year increase of more than 8,000 registrations.

They have a smaller slice of the pie in Nassau County, but are an important number of voters there, too. There, 414,582 voters are enrolled as Democrats, 318,899 are Republicans, and 281,456 are blanks. Unaffiliated voters in Nassau increased by nearly 4,000 year over year.

Amid the “red-wave” years, operatives for both major parties agree that so-called blanks have been trending in favor of Republicans. That was part of the story in 2022 when Long Island supported the GOP’s “favorite son” Lee Zeldin against Gov. Kathy Hochul, who had to get her winning margin elsewhere, especially in New York City.

One Democratic insider in Nassau County who preferred anonymity told The Point that blanks have been “absolutely tilting Republican,” perhaps by 2 to 1, in recent races. In contrast, the blanks are believed to have broken 4 to 1 against Donald Trump in Nassau County in 2020. The idea is that the unaffiliated as a whole reflect the collective choices of affiliated voters.

Blanks are sometimes called independents. The entity called the Independence Party has faded, and no longer appears on statewide ballots — even though some voters are still officially listed as its members. That helps clear up what had been a chronic confusion by which Independence Party members were misconstrued as unaffiliated.

And don’t expect an Independence Party to return. In 2022, Hochul signed a law barring the words “independent” or ”independence” in any party name. Major-party officials say this change shifted a number of voters into the “blank” category, helping to swell the ranks of the unaffiliated.

The rise of the blanks has not been a strictly Long Island phenomenon. In this blue state, going into Tuesday, 6,401,229 voters were registered as Democrats, 2,885,981 as Republicans and 3,133,343 registered without party affiliation.

Why so many people are reluctant to register as Democrats or Republicans — excluding them from having a voice in major-party primaries — varies by the individual. Some are believed reluctant to participate in the polarizing competition that elections have become, said a Long Island GOP consultant. And sometimes, Democrats will vote Republican — or vice versa — depending on the candidates in a particular race.

All this helps explain how “red waves” can occur in counties where Democrats technically outnumber Republicans.

One thing we know, even before results roll in: Voters generally don’t like to be taken for granted or have labels foisted upon them.

— Dan Janison dan.janison@newsday.com, Karthika Namboothiri karthika.namboothiri@newsday.com

Talking Point

What to expect when you’re inspecting

When Nassau and Suffolk boards of election start posting returns Tuesday night, the absentee voter counts to date will be part of the tally, effectively eliminating the suspense of whether those who voted by mail can really change the outcome except in the closest of races.

Here are the numbers by party registration, returned and certified, so far. Any outstanding absentees need to be postmarked by Tuesday night and received at each BOE by Nov. 14.

Also: Those scoring at home Tuesday night should beware of a common error to which news media and other observers have proved vulnerable in the past.

Don’t forget that election-night numbers are preliminary. Traditionally, what you see on the website right away will change because it’s only the beginning of the canvassing process.

Machine totals are checked, election officials review results, and counts are recounted. Sometimes, ballots are challenged after the fact.

So when eyeballing these first numbers, don’t compare the “turnout” rate to the final, certified numbers of prior elections. Either wait weeks to check final year-to-year tallies — the most solid method of comparison — or relate election-night totals to past election-night totals for an approximation. Otherwise, it’s apples versus oranges.

— Dan Janison dan.janison@newsday.com, Rita Ciolli rita.ciolli@newsday.com, Karthika Namboothiri karthika.namboothiri@newsday.com

Pencil Point

Stepping on it

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Final Point

Casino competition heats up

A hotel, live music venue, restaurants … and a casino.

Sound familiar?

New York Mets owner Steve Cohen’s vision for “Metropolitan Park” — the proposed development for the parking lot around Citi Field — sounds very similar in many ways to Las Vegas Sands’ proposed development for the parking lot around Nassau Coliseum.

Perhaps it’s no wonder then that Cohen, along with his partner, Hard Rock International, is considered one of Sands’ top competitors for one of the three available downstate casino licenses.

But while Sands already has a lease for the Coliseum land, Cohen still has a significant stumbling block on his proposal: The Citi Field parking lots are considered parkland — and require state approval to change that official designation.

Cohen’s detailed plans emerged Tuesday, as bidders continued to wait for the next stage of the state’s ongoing license process.

Meanwhile, as Cohen’s plans crystallized, another potential gaming bidder seems to be taking itself out of the game.

Vornado Realty Trust had been planning to pitch a casino at the former Hotel Pennsylvania, just across from Penn Station. Vornado chief executive Steven Roth told analysts on an earnings call this week that it’s “highly likely that we will not pursue a casino license.”

During the call, Roth pointed to “scarce” and “back-breakingly expensive” capital as a potential reason for putting off new construction. Decreased demand for office space and increased interest rates have also made the climate tougher for a commercial real estate company like Vornado.

Could Vornado’s exit make the path for Las Vegas Sands at the Nassau Hub or Cohen’s Metropolitan Park easier?

That remains to be seen. There’s still a host of other bidders for three licenses, including Yonkers Raceway in Westchester, and a slew of potential New York City locations in the mix, including Hudson Yards, Times Square, and a spot near the United Nations in Manhattan, along with the former Trump golf course in the Bronx, Coney Island, and Aqueduct Racetrack, which already has video lottery terminals, in Queens.

Some observers wondered last week whether New York City Mayor Eric Adams’ latest troubles, as the FBI searched the home of Adams’ chief fundraiser and campaign consultant, would impact the casino process — depending on how far they reach and what repercussions emerge. Adams would have to oversee zoning and community advisory committee decision-making on the city-based sites.

In the meantime, Sands supporters noted that with just three licenses up for grabs in the downstate area, the less competition the better. But, they added, Sands also has a chance to distinguish itself from the rest of the field since it’s the only proposal based on Long Island.

“If there are fewer choices to pick from, sure it helps us,” said Long Island Federation of Labor chief John Durso. “But I think their presentation is so strong and so powerful that whether there’s one or 100 choices, I’ve not seen anything like [the Sands proposal]. What they offer is generational change for the economy and the workforce on Long Island.”

— Randi F. Marshall randi.marshall@newsday.com

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