CD3 voters are distinctly different but will they be a trend?

Daily Point

Republicans call it a referendum, Suozzi keeps it local

After George Santos turned his scheming and expulsion from the House of Representatives into a national reality show, coverage of the election to replace him now is being framed as a picture window on the 2024 presidential race and control of Congress.

Yet, the 3rd Congressional District, based on its distinctive demographics, defies any neat comparisons to other House seats in swing states — the hackneyed “bellwether” analogy nor as a “crystal ball” for strategy for the presidential race.

The district is older, wealthier, better educated and living in more costly single family homes. That’s why lifting the $10,000 cap Republicans placed on the deductions of state and local taxes, known as SALT, resonates so well as an issue.

CD3 has a larger foreign born population than in most of the nation’s 435 House districts and many residents who listed an ethnic identity in the district can be traced to earlier waves of immigrants from northern Europe, and also to newer waves from China and India. While the census does not ask for religious affiliation, according to Brandeis University's American Jewish Population Project, CD3 has one of the largest Jewish populations in the nation. That vote would traditionally favor Democrats, but the Oct. 7 attack has upended that math and the direction of that vote is likely to be one of the deciding factors in the election.

Click here for The Point’s detailed analysis of federal data that reveals the financial, ethnic, educational and age breakdown of those who live in the mostly suburban Nassau County, Long Island district that includes a sliver of New York City’s outer borough of Queens.

The strategy of Democrats was to keep the issues local and their candidate a few steps away from President Joe Biden, but the influx of migrants to New York City and the politics of the border crisis has made that impossible.

Democrat Tom Suozzi held a Zoom press conference Monday to say that he supports the Senate’s negotiated border bill, criticizing Republican Mazi Pilip’s immediate rejection of the measure. But he was peppered with questions about the special election Feb. 13 would be a “referendum” on U.S. border policy or what “lessons” Democrats could learn about immigration.

“It’s a referendum on Suozzi versus Mazi,” Suozzi insisted, keeping with his campaign’s narrative that the choice is about who can best find solutions to the nation’s challenges. He then criticized Pilip for immediately rejecting the Senate compromise bill, saying she was in step with the “extreme politics” of the Republican Party bosses.

And a Democratic campaign PAC just made an additional $1.25 million buy in part to highlight her opposition to abortion.

But Republicans from the start have leaned into the referendum strategy. House Speaker Mike Johnson in a January fundraising email readily tied the CD3 outcome to the national outlook. “If we win big here, we will set the tone for conservative victories across the board in 2024,” he wrote.

And while the local GOP strategy was to keep former President Donald Trump at a distance in recent weeks, Pilip has made it clear that she supports the former president and would welcome his endorsement.

“It’s not a bellwether if you are looking at the demographics, especially the economic factors,” said Nassau County Democratic chair Jay Jacobs. “But it may well transcend the demographics and become a perfect example of what the suburbs are saying are the issues,” he said.

— Rita Ciolli rita.ciolli@newsday.com, Amanda Fiscina-Wells amanda.fiscina-wells@newsday.com

Pencil Point

Pouring in

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Final Point

Who’s voting early?

As of 4 p.m. Monday, 22,279 Nassau residents voted in the first three days of early voting in the 3rd Congressional District race to replace George Santos. But it’s the by-party breakdown that may be particularly telling as observers attempt to read tea leaves in the battle between Democrat Tom Suozzi and Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip.

A total of 9,583 Democrats, 7,714 Republicans and 4,157 blanks — those who are not registered with any political party — turned out on Saturday, Sunday and most of Monday, according to data from the Nassau County Board of Elections. Conventional wisdom says that the majority of blanks could trend Republican — potentially giving Pilip an early edge.

“We’re extremely encouraged,” one Republican source told The Point Monday evening. “We think based on recent trends that independents break strongly for Republicans and there is a healthy independent turnout. And the Republican vote is very healthy as well, in comparison to the Democrat turnout.

“We’re feeling very comfortable and very confident,” the source added.

But according to one top Democrat’s analysis, one half of the Republican early voters this year voted on Election Day in 2022, while just one-third of Democrats who voted early had voted on Election Day last time. And, the observer said, it seems that so far, Democrats who did not vote in 2022 are turning out in higher numbers than Republicans who stayed home in 2022.

“We are on target right now, not ahead of where we need to be, but not behind,” the top Democrat told The Point Monday. “The Republicans appear to be pulling from their usual Election Day voters and may have less in the bank on Election Day.”

This year’s early-voting turnout is so far significantly higher than CD3’s voter turnout in November 2022, the race Santos won. By the end of the third day of early voting in 2022, 17,741 voters had come out to vote in CD3, including 7,628 Democrats, 6,609 Republicans, 2,881 blanks and about 200 registered with another party.

The highest voter turnout so far this year has come from the Plainview Mid-Island Y Jewish Community Center, where 3,145 voters came out as of 4 p.m. Monday — the majority of them Democrats. Right behind it, however, is Great Neck House, with 3,072 voters as of 4 p.m. Monday, including 962 Republicans and 809 blanks. Also seeing high numbers of voters were early voting locations in Port Washington, with 2,752 voters, mostly Democrats, and Massapequa, with 2,514 voters, 1,394 of them Republicans.

According to the New York City Board of Elections, 7,635 Queens residents voted in the first three days of early voting in the CD3 race. A breakdown by party was not available.

— Randi F. Marshall randi.marshall@newsday.com and Rita Ciolli rita.ciolli@newsday.com

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