What happens after Santos is out?

Daily Point

The potential fallout of a Santos vacancy

George Santos will stop getting a federal paycheck for serving in Congress sooner rather than later, but exactly when may have significant consequences for Nassau County and town elections on Nov. 7.

Santos’ next scheduled appearance in the Central Islip federal courthouse is June 30 — does he take a plea deal around then? If not, will the Department of Justice hit him with a superseding indictment containing charges with heavier penalties and dragging out the negotiating time on a plea bargain?

The House Ethics Committee probe also plays into the timeline. Rep. Nick LaLota might have opened a window in the thinking of GOP leadership Wednesday. In trying to explain his no vote on a Democratic motion to expel Santos, LaLota said he expected the House Ethics Committee to take action against the fabulist congressman “within 60 days.”

LaLota could be signaling to Santos just how little time he has to use the act of resigning his seat in Congress as a bargaining chip with the feds. Republicans might want him gone so a special election can be held before this fall's elections to defuse Democratic enthusiasm and GOP payback.

Here’s what happens if the CD3 seat has a vacancy either through Santos’ resignation or expulsion from Congress. Under New York election law, if the official vacancy occurs before Aug. 9, a special election takes place with the date set by Gov. Kathy Hochul. The governor has 10 days to set that date which must occur no sooner than 70 days and no later than 90 days after the vacancy.

LaLota’s expected 60-day window for expulsion or a Santos resignation brings the issue to Hochul’s doorstep in mid-July, allowing time for just a CD3 election in early fall.

However, a vacancy after Aug. 9 makes a big difference because generally state law would then require the special election to be folded into the general election taking place on Nov. 7.

In this local election year, then the CD3 race would be on top of the ticket for all voters in the Town of North Hempstead and a good chunk of those in Oyster Bay Town as well as in four Nassau County legislative districts. But there is an outside fear among some Republicans that Democrats might exceed their usual low turnout numbers in a nonpresidential year because of anger over Santos and GOP voters may want to punish the local GOP for screwing up in their vetting of Santos. That could make a difference even in the Town of Hempstead contest and some legislative seats that don’t fall directly in the boundaries of CD3.

The Nassau GOP may not have great odds of winning a special election in CD3 no matter when the date but they surely don’t want any collateral damage in their local bread-and-butter races.

— Rita Ciolli @ritaciolli

Pencil Point

A natural outcome

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Talking Point

Casino opponents cite Hofstra study

On Friday, a “policy paper” from Hofstra University’s National Center for Suburban Studies began circulating online. Its title: “The Economic Unsuitability of a Casino at the Nassau County 'Hub'.”

The paper doesn’t seem to be on Hofstra’s website, and it’s unclear who wrote it. According to Hofstra officials, it was written in February 2023 “by researchers” at the center. It’s also unclear whether the report was completed at the direction of Hofstra President Susan Poser. Poser and the Hofstra board of trustees have publicly voiced their opposition to Las Vegas Sands’ proposal to build a casino resort on the land around Nassau Coliseum.

The report came under scrutiny Friday, especially as it pushed a narrative Poser has used that seemed to tie the mission and focus of the Long Island Regional Economic Development Council to the opposition to a casino.

On Friday, other casino opponents began sharing the document as evidence to support their position, through a link on the Nassau Coalition for Responsible Development’s website and posted it to the Say No to the Casino Civic Association Facebook page. At least one commenter said he planned to send it to his county legislator. The Nassau County Legislature is scheduled to vote Monday on whether to transfer the existing Coliseum lease to Sands.

While the six-page paper outlines various negative impacts of casinos, its first two pages were focused closer to home — on the LIREDC, an arm of Empire State Development.

The paper opens with a quote from the LIREDC’s vision statement and then argues that the casino resort proposal is “completely at odds with” the region’s “stated economic development priorities.”

“The proposed casino is particularly disconnected from the economic imperatives of the Long Island Regional Economic Development Council and its work to promote biotech as a key regional cluster that would drive economic prosperity on Long Island,” the paper says.

It adds: “Regional economic development planning has been a coherent, long-term strategy, rooted in a regional consensus, and supported by state investments. Casinos, on the other hand, have not been mentioned once in any of the LIREDC’s many recommendations, including last year’s expanded list of post-pandemic ‘key strategies.’”

At the LIREDC’s meeting this month, officials announced that every regional economic development council would be updating its strategic plans, as the last version was completed in 2015.

Poser is a member of the LIREDC. Lawrence Levy, the center’s executive dean, has worked with the LIREDC on some of its efforts, even acting as a key writer on the council’s past strategic plan.

The Center for Suburban Studies policy paper echoes remarks made by Poser during the legislature’s Rules Committee hearing last week.

After Poser made those remarks, the LIREDC co-chairs sent out an email to their members that included a copy of the council’s code of conduct.

“While we encourage all to speak publicly about the REDC process and help the ESD team get the word out about programs and available grants, we do ask that you be mindful when representing the positions of the REDC, and cognizant of the importance of confidentiality and the need to avoid any potential or actual conflicts of interest,” LIREDC co-chairs John Nader and Linda Armyn wrote in the email, which was obtained by The Point.

After The Point sent Armyn a copy of the National Center for Suburban Studies report on Friday, Armyn responded.

“The REDC will never take a position one way or the other on a project that is going to go before the state for approval. Period. End of story,” Armyn said in an interview with The Point. “It’s inappropriate for anyone involved with or who is a member of the Council to directly or indirectly make a statement or represent an opinion on behalf of the REDC. That’s not open for discussion.”

In a statement, Hofstra did not address The Point’s specific queries about the report, or respond to the LIREDC’s concerns.

“Hofstra University cares deeply about the economic future of Long Island, and the development of the Nassau Hub is a vital part of that,” the statement said, noting that the National Center for Suburban Studies focuses on issues including economic development, social equity and sustainability. “This report, which includes citations to the research on which it is based, addresses some of the issues related to the development of the Hub …”

— Randi F. Marshall @RandiMarshall