The Santos countdown

Daily Point

Calculations and speculation on how it all ends

Even the hint, or as Rep. George Santos calls it “speculation,” that the indicted House member may be discussing a plea deal that likely ends his tenure roils the political maneuvering.

In what venue an eventual end may come — a federal court or the floor of the House chamber — will likely determine the calendar for when CD3 has a new representative.

Santos’ status conference before a federal judge in Central Islip, originally scheduled for Thursday, is now on the calendar for Oct. 27 after prosecutors said in an official filing that more time was needed to discuss “possible paths forward in this matter.”

A hearing in a related prosecution of a former Santos fundraiser, Samuel Miele, was also postponed until Oct. 6 with the Justice Department specifically saying that plea discussions were taking place. Miele is charged with impersonating a staff member to a top GOP House member to solicit donations for Santos. Would any plea deal involving Miele include requiring his testimony before the House Ethics Committee? If Santos had knowledge of Miele’s scheme, that would strengthen the House’s case for expulsion of Santos, according to some legal experts.

Meanwhile, one prominent Democrat is pressuring the GOP to release information about the House Ethics Committee’s parallel probe into charges against Santos. Rep. Steny Hoyer of Maryland sent a letter on Aug. 30 to the two chairs of the Ethics Committee asking them to “act swiftly and transparently on this issue.” Hoyer, the former Democratic majority leader, noted that Republican leaders said in June they wanted “to move rapidly on this matter.” He has yet to receive a reply.

How closely federal prosecutors and House investigators are working together is the big unknown.

If the House is nearing a vote to expel him, Santos might need to use his best leverage, an agreement to resign, as quickly as possible in his deal with prosecutors. That would have the added benefit of getting him out of Congress without Speaker Kevin McCarthy pulling the trigger. And the sooner Santos exits the stage, the better it is for the other Long Island GOP incumbents who are trying to shake the stench of Santos in 2024.

When all this happens will be a major factor in how the political parties choose their candidates to replace him. If Santos is expelled or sentenced before June 1, 2024, both of which outcomes create an official vacancy, a special election will be called by New York’s governor. After that date, the seat will be filled in the general election in November when the presidential contest will top the ticket.

— Rita Ciolli rita.ciolli@newsday.com

Pencil Point

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Final Point

Looking to redeem '22 Zeldin lift

Remember Alison Esposito? A total of 616,184 Long Islanders voted for her only last year for lieutenant governor, when she was paired with Lee Zeldin of Shirley in his bid for the top state office. Together, they carried both Suffolk and Nassau counties.

Past LG candidates on losing tickets have had a way of returning to political obscurity after the fact. That might not happen to Esposito; Republican sources tell The Point that they see the 48-year-old retired NYPD captain as their strongest chance to win back the 18th Congressional District north of the city in 2024.

The seat is now held by Democrat Pat Ryan who won it by less than 4,000 votes amid last year’s regional “red wave” election.

If the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee, which has been courting Esposito, mounts a solid challenge against him, that could help offset deficits where the Republicans are considered vulnerable.

Two GOP first-termers, George Santos and Anthony D’Esposito, won previously Democratic districts amid last year’s midterm backlash against Democrats. But in New York, presidential races — usually — bring a high pro-Democratic turnout. And in November, the state’s highest court will decide whether and how congressional districts will be rewritten for an unusual second time in the decade, which could mean more GOP hunger for an 18th CD win.

Esposito has yet to announce a candidacy. She’s always maintained her roots in Goshen, in the Orange County portion of the district, which also includes most of Dutchess and Ulster counties. If she runs, she’ll be one of many party players executing moves in another do-or-die national House contest.

— Dan Janison dan.janison@newsday.com