Dems see a possibly bluer CD1

Daily Point

Does CD1 still have that swing?

For decades, control of the 1st Congressional District, Long Island’s easternmost seat, has alternated between the major parties. Starting in the 1980s, the incumbents were William Carney, a Republican, followed by George J. Hochbrueckner, a Democrat, Michael Forbes, a Republican-turned-Democrat, Felix Grucci, a Republican, Tim Bishop, a Democrat, Lee Zeldin, a Republican.

Next year, the district’s latest Republican incumbent, Nick LaLota, faces his first reelection. On Monday, word came that James Gaughran, a veteran Suffolk County Democrat who most recently served as New York State Senator for the 5th District, will seek to challenge LaLota next year. Nancy Goroff, a chemist who lost to Zeldin in 2020, is also expected to run. Insiders say that Suffolk County Sheriff Errol D. Toulon Jr., who’s had his name bandied about for the nomination, is unlikely to run.

Has CD1 become too “red” a district, though, to play its old role as a “swing” district? In part, that depends on whether and how its borders may be redrawn. Democratic efforts to redo the lines are currently headed to the state Court of Appeals. In 2020 Joe Biden got 50.1% and Donald Trump 49.9% in the terrain that in 2022 would become CD1. But with Zeldin at the top of the ticket for governor last November, LaLota decisively defeated Democrat Bridget Fleming.

One Democratic insider told The Point that Gaughran, whose base has been in the Town of Huntington, and who has emphasized environmental issues, will have a better chance if the lines are shifted. If it indeed becomes a bluer district, the source said, Gaughran will have positioned himself early to get a leg up on other Democratic candidates, who’d presumably jump in if the seat looks more winnable for the party than it was last year.

Ironically, Gaughran himself was a victim less than a year ago in the same redistricting fiasco that Democrats are looking to revise for House seats (there is no current challenge for Senate). Under a new map imposed by a special court master his residence was moved into another Senate district.

If he is the nominee, Gaughran, like any other Democratic contender, is expected to target the legislative votes taken by LaLota in tandem with Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s often controversy-ridden GOP caucus. At the least, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee under House Democratic leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries of Brooklyn, will want to force the Republicans to expend resources and fight for the seat. Conventional wisdom holds that first-termers, regardless of party, are uniquely vulnerable to becoming one-termers.

— Dan Janison dan.janison@newsday.com

Pencil Point

DeSantis divide

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Final Point

Environmental group endorses Romaine 

To his delight, the GOP’s candidate for Suffolk County executive, Edward P. Romaine, has been endorsed by the New York League of Conservation Voters, which has also ditched the whole slate of Republican legislative candidates.

The NYLCV’s endorsement of Romaine, the 76-year-old Brookhaven Town supervisor, will add to his environmental credentials in the race against Democrat Dave Calone, 49. Both men squared off at an NYLCV co-sponsored forum last month held at Stony Brook University. “I’m very pleased,” Romaine told The Point.

But the most notable part of the organization’s list of endorsements is the refusal to back any incumbent Republican legislators running for reelection because of the GOP-led legislature’s failure on July 25 to pass a measure that would put the long-awaited wastewater treatment plan on the November ballot.

The long-awaited plan would have provided a wide expansion of sewers and high-tech septics that proponents like the NYLCV say is vitally needed to protect Suffolk’s waterways and underground drinking supply from pollution.

“In one of the most cynical political maneuvers I’ve seen in a long time, the Suffolk County Legislature decided against empowering their constituents to fix the water quality crisis that is happening, quite literally, in their backyards,” said NYLCV president Julie Tighe. “There is no time to waste when it comes to water quality and the health of Suffolk County residents, and so for the legislators who voted to go on recess from their responsibilities, NYLCV is choosing to recess their endorsements.”

In tabling the measure to put the wastewater treatment plan on the ballot, some legislators last month expressed concerns about the plan’s funding formula, relying on the passage of a 0.125% sales tax increase, and that too much of the new money would favor septic systems for individual homeowners rather than sewer construction.

The only Suffolk legislators gaining the NYLCV’s endorsements for reelection — Samuel Gonzalez and Jason Richberg — are both Democrats. By comparison, the NYLCV in the previous off-year election of 2021, endorsed a bipartisan group of 13 candidates for the Suffolk Legislature.

At last month’s forum at Stony Brook, both Calone and Romaine expressed support for putting the wastewater plan on the ballot, only days before the Suffolk Legislature shot it down. Many expected that if the wastewater plan was on the ballot, it would attract more Democrats and environmentalists to the polls.

But if Romaine gets elected in November, Republican legislators who opposed the sewers and septic system plan may be in for a surprise. Sources say that though Romaine has also expressed some concerns about the sales tax — looking for more state and federal money to pay for it — he intends to make a newly reconstructed wastewater plan one of his top priorities. Unfortunately for supporters, it will likely require a new bill going to Albany and getting the legislature’s approval, which may be like putting a broken Humpty Dumpty back on the wall.

— Thomas Maier thomas.maier@newsday.com