GOP's re-entry strategy in CD3

Daily Point

Saving Santos' seat

Nassau County Republican head Joe Cairo is clearly moving the pieces on the CD3 chessboard but says right now the party has no obvious candidate to run in any special election to replace indicted incumbent George Santos.

“There is no clear front-runner,” Cairo told The Point, adding that 15 people have contacted him already about their prospects in a CD3 race with more likely to reach out. “People saw that Santos won and that this district leans GOP,” explained Cairo about why so many of those interested are new to seeking elected office.

In recent days, he said he has heard from a retired businessman in Manhasset, an NYPD detective, a young woman who graduated from MIT and has an MBA from Columbia (and yes, he is checking credentials), as well as some local elected officials including Nassau Legis. Mazi Melesa Pilip. Cairo also mentioned former NYPD Deputy Inspector Alison Esposito, who ran as lieutenant governor on the GOP ticket with Lee Zeldin last year. The only credible declared candidate is Kellen Curry, a veteran who worked for JPMorgan.

But timing matters. Santos insists he will run again in 2024 but to do so he would need a Houdini-like escape from his 13-court federal fraud indictment and then find a way to petition himself into a GOP primary for the nomination with no national or local party support. That is why the expectation is that there will be a special election to fill the seat this year or next. There are no primaries for special elections; party leaders pick the candidates.

Cairo is not revealing his strategy just yet and it may be reactive to moves by the Democrats and the local and national political moods.

“We don’t have any that stands out” as the right person at the right time, Cairo said, noting that when the Nassau DA spot opened up in 2021 after Madeline Singas was named to the state’s top court, he knew the race would be about crime and that he needed a career prosecutor. Longtime Nassau prosecutor Anne Donnelly, who was not on anyone’s radar as a likely DA candidate, went on to defeat Democrat Todd Kaminsky.

Cairo acknowledged the Democratic opposition as well in making a choice. In CD3, the party’s expected candidate is former incumbent Tom Suozzi, who did not seek reelection in 2022. “Suozzi running in a special election with his ability to raise money is a very serious candidate,” said Cairo about the former two-term Nassau County executive and former Glen Cove mayor.

Cairo said he has no preference for when an election to fill a vacancy should be held if Santos resigns either as part of a plea deal or if he is expelled by the House, disputing the conventional wisdom that Cairo does not want the matchup on Nov. 7. Cairo says a large Democratic turnout would not hurt other contests on the ballot, including that for North Hempstead Town supervisor and other local races. However, as seen in Suozzi’s past races, most of the cash and effort was in North Hempstead.

Santos is due back in court on Sept. 7. But Cairo might have plenty of time to interview even more candidates. The last day for a CD3 vacancy to trigger a special election is July 1, 2024.

— Rita Ciolli rita.ciolli@newsday.com

Pencil Point

More or less?

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Final Point

As American as apple pie

• The long holiday weekend in the U.S. featured mass shootings in Baltimore, Philadelphia and Como, Texas, that combined killed 10 people and wounded 38. Which seems hideously appropriate — the quintessential American holiday marked by a quintessential piece of Americana.
• The cost of a first-class “Forever” postage stamp is jumping from 63 to 66 cents, six months after it rose from 60 to 63 cents, two of five such increases since 2019. Just another not-so-subtle reminder that nothing is forever.
• Former Vice President Mike Pence said he visited Ukraine because President Joe Biden “has failed miserably to explain our national interest here.” Then Pence said that national interest was to give Ukraine’s military the ability to beat Russian aggression, something Biden has said dozens of times.
• Asked about her poll numbers, Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley said, “We can look at past presidential elections and understand that national polls just don’t matter right now.” And you can look at her words and realize her numbers are really low.
• There have been four reported shark attacks on swimmers at Long Island beaches since Monday. Would there have been more if not for all that added monitoring this year to prevent such attacks?

— Michael Dobie michael.dobie@newsday.com