Can the names Kamala and Usha boost minority turnout on LI?

Daily Point

Asian Indians in the limelight may bring out ethnic voters

A lot of the Democratic momentum to replace Joe Biden at the top of the party’s ticket was driven by the fear that a lack of enthusiasm for the incumbent would crash their plans to take control of the House of Representatives.

Now that Kamala Harris is almost certain to be the presidential candidate, there has been a narrative switch, with Democrats nationally citing a new energy and dramatic boost in fundraising from small donors.

But can Harris — as both a woman of color and of Indian ancestry ­— change the dynamics in Long Island’s most contested House races? Is the Republican ticket boosted because vice-presidential candidate JD Vance is married to a first-generation Indian American and accomplished lawyer named Usha? Both the names of Kamala and Usha have Sanskrit origins and are popular in Hindu culture.

Long Island has approximately 80,522 residents who identify as Indian, alone or in combination with other ethnicities, making up 2.8% of the population. About 74% of this group, or nearly 60,000 people, live in Nassau County, according to data from the 2020 U.S. Census Bureau. Asian Indians are the fifth-largest ethnic group in Nassau and the largest Asian group. While Asian Indian is the majority Asian sub-group in Suffolk County as well, the 20,898 residents make up less than 1.5% of the county’s population and is the 11th-largest ethnic group.

By a large margin, most of the Island’s Indian Americans are concentrated in CD3 which Democrat Tom Suozzi won in a February special election. The party’s only blue seat on Long Island spans from eastern Queens to western Suffolk with 33% of its population in Queens identifying as Indian.

But voters of Indian ancestry are not monolithic and already are pretty active in local politics, so the early assessment is that Harris’ Indian ancestry won’t change the dynamics in what is considered a pretty comfortable Democratic seat.

But several Long Island political insiders told The Point that Harris will primarily be viewed as a Black woman and that identity will help most in CD4, one of the nation’s most closely watched House races. There, the Black population identifies at close to 19%, according to data from the 2022 American Community Survey.

In CD4, Republican Anthony D’Esposito is locked in a rematch with Democrat Lauren Gillen, the former Hempstead Town supervisor. In 2022, D’Esposito won the seat by a margin of just under 4% in a district that Biden carried by a 12% margin in 2020.

“We are seeing an increase of grassroots donors and volunteers engagement,” Sarah Carlson, Gillen’s campaign manager, told The Point.

Nassau County Democratic leader Jay Jacobs said Harris will also spark a greater turnout than Biden this fall, which was a particular concern in CD4. “Harris at the top of ticket will help Gillen in Elmont and much of Assembly District 18,” said Jacobs. AD18 encompasses traditional Black strongholds.

Harris very well could be a factor in certain races such as CD4, said one GOP source, adding that it was too early to evaluate Harris’ impact.

While CD2 represented by Republican incumbent Andrew Garbarino has the second-largest concentration of Long Islanders who identify as Black, the seat is considered solidly Republican by voter registration. In CD1 where freshman incumbent Republican Nick LaLota faces a feisty and well-funded Democratic challenger in John Avlon, Harris may gin up more turnout from younger voters and bring over more women voters.

“The Democrats are now giving them something different. They don’t have to choose between two old white men,” said Jacobs.

Here is Long Island’s breakdown by population that identifies as Black.

— Rita Ciolli rita.ciolli@newsday.com, Karthika Namboothiri karthika.namboothiri@newsday.com

Pencil Point

Getting there

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Final Point

Big MTA spending’s political impact

Government watchdog group Reinvent Albany has emerged with a detailed analysis of spending by the Metropolitan Transportation Authority that, it says, illustrates "where the ax is most likely to fall" due to Gov. Kathy Hochul’s decision to pause congestion pricing.

Reinvent Albany broke down MTA spending by congressional district, analyzing where MTA vendors are located and how much each received. The group also analyzed by State Senate district and Assembly district, to show how smaller communities could be impacted by a slowdown in future spending. The group found that in total, the MTA spent $35 billion across the tristate area, in payments to everything from engineering firms and manufacturers to construction companies and computer services.

Of Long Island’s congressional districts, CD4 took in the most — with $2.6 billion spent between 2014 and 2023, ranking it fourth of any House district across the tristate area. The bulk of that money was spent on the Long Island Rail Road’s Third Track project, and the partnership that led it — 3rd Track Constructors. Other vendors in the district, including NY Paratransit Group, Alliant Insurance Services and All Transit LLC, each received more than $100 million from the MTA between 2014 and 2023.

Meanwhile, the MTA spent $1.88 billion in CD2, with the bulk of the funds going to Forte Construction Corp. CD3 vendors received $1.35 billion from the MTA, while CD1 firms got just $373 million.

CD12, represented by Rep. Jerry Nadler, had the highest MTA spending, with $5.18 million going to vendors there. CD14, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s district, and CD16, the district now helmed by Rep. Jamaal Bowman, who just lost in a primary to George Latimer, filled out the top three.

The analysis seems to target one of the key arguments political observers have made when explaining why Hochul may have decided to pause congestion pricing for now: The notion that the policy could impact congressional races and state legislative seats come Election Day.

CD4 also has been home to some of congestion pricing’s fiercest critics, including Hempstead Town Supervisor Don Clavin, whose town is suing the MTA to get a permanent injunction against the toll.

But the analysis is based on past spending, so it doesn’t entirely reflect potential future budgets. The Third Track project, for instance, is completed — so the bulk of the past money that went to CD4 may not reflect what’s spent going forward. Yet, there are also upcoming projects — especially in CD1 — that could up the spending in other districts, including the moving of the Yaphank station, the MTA rail yard at the Lawrence Aviation site and the potential for electrification across the LIRR’s eastern tracks.

Rachael Fauss, Reinvent Albany’s senior policy adviser, told The Point that the data showed that congestion pricing, which was expected to raise $15 billion for the MTA, was more than just a toll that would negatively affect a "small number" of individuals who drove into Manhattan’s central business district, adding that elected officials should consider the impact the toll would have had on their district’s companies and workforces.

"If it’s about what’s good for the congressional district and the legislators in that area, nothing is better than bringing home the bacon to your constituents and local companies," Fauss said. "It’s $15 billion that isn’t going to get spread around."

Fauss noted that Reinvent Albany has also found that 100,000 jobs could be impacted across New York by the pause in congestion pricing.

"If the question is also about affordability, it’s a lot harder to afford to live in the New York City metro region if you don’t have a job," Fauss said.

Fauss noted that many transit-related vendors are based in New York because the nation’s largest public transit system is based here. That includes rail car manufacturers, construction firms and smaller vendors who provide the parts, software and other services the MTA needs.

Of New York’s State Senate districts, SD9 — a seat currently held by Republican Patricia Canzoneri-Fitzpatrick — ranked third on Reinvent Albany’s list, with $1.95 billion in MTA spending — also primarily because of Third Track. SD7 and SD8 — seats held by Republicans Jack Martins and Alexis Weik respectively — also took in more than $1 billion in MTA spending each.

— Randi F. Marshall randi.marshall@newsday.com

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