How LI voter registrations have changed since Trump won

Daily Point

Party support is cyclical and the president is riding it

The latest New York State registration numbers for active voters reveal a slight uptick of Long Islanders identifying as Republicans with a bit more of a decline in those identifying as Democrats.

Overall, the percentages are small but still a snapshot of the mood of LI voters since Donald Trump was elected president. Since the November elections through Feb. 14, the deadline to change registration and remain eligible to vote in the June primaries, Democratic registrations went down by 0.9% in Nassau and 0.8% in Suffolk. Republican voter registrations were up 0.4% in Nassau and 0.5% in Suffolk. Blanks or independent voters were up 0.4% in Nassau and 0.7% in Suffolk. The data is from the State Board of Elections

Active voters are those on the polling books who cast a ballot within the span of two federal elections or have confirmed their address with their local board of elections.

LI political leaders agree that Trump’s party is on the ascent right now but caution that politics is a cyclical business. "President Trump has the biggest megaphone in the country, and he used it effectively, succinctly and clearly," Jesse Garcia, chair of the Suffolk GOP, told The Point. He said strong local candidates were pounding a similar message. "Republicans were making communities safer and more affordable."

In Nassau, where Democrats still hold the registration edge, there were 3,521 fewer members of the party while the GOP saw a gain of 1,127 since November. Third-party registrations were a wash with Conservatives going up 47 voters and Working Families registrations increasing by 59 voters.

In Suffolk, the roll of Democrats decreased by 2,942 while Republicans increased 1,633 and Conservatives by four voters. Working Families Party registrations increased by 97.

Nassau County and state Democratic leader Jay Jacobs admitted the party has a lot of work to do. "It’s a branding thing and the Democratic brand is not in favor right now," Jacobs said. "I’m pretty confident the longer the Trump extremism goes on in Washington, the better it will be for Democrats."

"Right now, coming off the election, the numbers are not surprising," Jacobs said, noting that while Democrats still retain a significant registration edge in Nassau, many of them don’t vote. Jacobs said turnout woes are compounded by Democratic messaging that hasn’t captured enough of the independent voters "who still look at us as too far to the left for their liking."

Jacobs says Democrats are working hard to change their image for the 2025 county races but predicts the county race "will be overshadowed by what is happening in Washington."

Garcia has somewhat of the same take, saying his job is to maintain a strong "firewall" to insulate the local party from the "ebbs and flows of the national party."

As to how the national politics actually will play out on Long Island in the next election cycle, Garcia says it’s too early to say. But the door-to-door petitioning process, which started Tuesday for the next round of local elections, will provide a clue. "Ask me in April," he said.

— Rita Ciolli rita.ciolli@newsday.com, Karthika Namboothiri karthika.namboothiri@newsday.com

Pencil Point

Look who got in line

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Final Point

A LaLota-Avlon rematch in CD1?

John Avlon, the author and former TV commentator who opposed Republican Rep. Nick LaLota on the Democratic line in the 1st Congressional District in November, says his new chairmanship of New York City-based Citizens Union doesn’t mean he won’t try to win the Suffolk seat again next year.

In fact, the 52-year-old Avlon, who’s registered to vote from his house in Sag Harbor, says one of the rationales for his taking the position was an agreed-upon effort to "branch out" beyond the city into Long Island and Westchester County. Founded in 1897 in New York City to counter the influence of Tammany Hall, Citizens Union is said to be the oldest nonpartisan good-government group still on the scene.

After Citizens Union’s board of directors elected him in December, Avlon spoke of a renewed reform movement in the state and "committed to ensuring that Citizens Union remains involved at the statewide level in Albany and increasing our presence on Long Island where I recently ran for Congress," according to a text of the speech he provided to The Point. As for another House candidacy, he has expressed interest privately but isn’t committed to a run so far.

From the other side of the aisle, Avlon’s position on running at the moment is similar to that of Republican ex-Rep. Anthony D’Esposito who lost the CD4 seat to Democrat Laura Gillen in November.

Avlon told The Point that he’s in the city only part of the week and has stayed up on the public doings of CD1. On Election Day 2024, Avlon ran two points ahead of Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee in the district, while LaLota ran two points behind Trump. The final results were 226,285 for LaLota and 183,540 for Avlon, or a split of about 55% to 45%. Next year’s races are midterms, however, in which the party that holds the White House typically faces some degree of backlash in Congress.

In the city, Citizens Union has taken the position that indicted Mayor Eric Adams should resign or be removed — but also suggests that the relevant laws should be changed, because "we do not believe governors should hold absolute powers to remove mayors." Avlon succeeds Randy Mastro, former close aide to ex-Mayor Rudy Giuliani; Adams nominated Mastro as his corporation counsel but Mastro withdrew his name in September after the City Council resisted confirming him.

The GOP’s slim margin in the House in Washington, meanwhile, has created widespread interest in the goings-on about every Long Island seat only three months after the most recent national election.

— Dan Janison dan.janison@newsday.com

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