Live from the RNC in Milwaukee

Convention Point

At the RNC, LI and New York are up front

MILWAUKEE — As the New York delegation gathered for breakfast Monday at a hotel outside Milwaukee a few hours before the start of the Republican National Convention, New York GOP chairman Ed Cox likened the moment to 1980, the year Republican Ronald Reagan won New York and the presidency — and the year Republican Al D’Amato became senator.

"All of a sudden, New York is in play," Cox told The Point.

And that starts, he said, with Long Island.

"We are now in a very good position on Long Island," Cox said. "Long Island is a Republican bastion."

When New York cast its 91 votes for Trump on Monday afternoon, Rep. Elise Stefanik echoed Cox’s take. "We believe that Donald J. Trump will be the first Republican in a generation who will win New York State," Stefanik said as she cast New York’s votes from the floor.

That attitude started with Trump’s own optimism. Cox recalled a text he received from Trump after Trump endorsed U.S. Senate candidate Mike Sapraicone — whom Cox has long supported.

"Work hard, Ed, and we’re going to win New York," Cox quoted Trump as saying.

"It’s part of his political DNA that he’s going to win New York," Cox added.

Similarly, Nassau County GOP chairman Joe Cairo told The Point that he had a conversation with Trump right after the former president’s visit to the Bronx earlier this year, in which Trump made a prediction.

"I think I can win New York, and if I win, I’m giving you all the credit," Cairo recalled Trump saying. " And if I lose, I’m putting all the blame on you."

Winning New York isn’t going to be easy, Cairo said. But he said the unity and passion that has emerged in the party in recent weeks ramped up further after the attempted assassination of Trump on Saturday, and only served to "increase the dedication and devotion."

New York’s delegation has a spot on the convention floor at the front of the arena, just to the left of the stage. And, Cox said, the state — and Long Island, specifically — will play a different role this week than it has in past conventions, particularly because Long Island has notched Republican victories even in traditionally blue areas in recent years.

"Now, the way things are moving, we are competitive. That re-energizes us in New York . . . We have a shot at a big year," he said. "And Long Island is a key to that. New York wants change and this could be the change election for New York."

Suffolk County GOP chairman Jesse Garcia called the region "the engine of the state’s Republican Party," pointing to recent electoral red waves as evidence. But the real reason for Long Island’s importance, Garcia said, lies in the region’s ability to connect with the party’s messaging on three significant topics — safety in the streets and neighborhoods, security particularly when it comes to the border, and affordability.

On that last topic, Garcia noted that much of the focus has rightly been on inflation. But, he said, elements of the Republican platform also speak to one of Long Island’s biggest pain points.

"For New York and Long Island, I think it [the platform] is a blueprint for the next Congress to restore SALT," Garcia said, referring to the federal tax deduction for state and local income taxes. "I think it does pave the way."

Zeldin speaks

As the convention nominated Trump Monday afternoon, Lee Zeldin, who as a member of Congress was a staunch supporter of Trump and who will be a convention speaker later in the week, said he saw a road map on how to achieve a Trump victory.

"Believe it or not, there are a lot of Americans who still haven’t decided who to vote for. There are many Americans who haven’t decided whether or not to actually vote," Zeldin told The Point. "There’s an opportunity through this convention over the next few days to speak to these voters with what might be a fresh opportunity to connect with voters who might have voted for Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden in past presidential races."

Zeldin said some speakers were changing their speeches in light of Saturday’s tragedy. But he said he has chosen not to alter a word of the message he plans to deliver, which will be focused on foreign policy, the military and national security.

Zeldin, who made a strong run in his gubernatorial bid in 2022, said the "political earth" in New York has continued to "shift to the right."

But the Shirley resident recognized that moving the state far enough to give Trump its electoral votes "will be difficult and uphill."

Zeldin said he expects Reps. Andrew Garbarino, Anthony D’Esposito and Nick LaLota to keep their seats — but said the effort to move Tom Suozzi’s CD3 seat back to the red column would be far tougher. Nonetheless, Zeldin predicted that the most flippable seat statewide would be the 18th upstate, which former gubernatorial running mate Allison Esposito is seeking. The second most likely seat is CD3, where Republican Mike LiPetri is opposing Suozzi, who won a special election in February.

Zeldin said the toughest race statewide would be Sapraicone’s effort to unseat Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand.

So what’s next for Zeldin? He said he wasn’t even thinking about that until after Election Day.

"Whatever is next after November 5 is a decision-making process for after November 5," Zeldin said.

— Randi F. Marshall randi.marshall@newsday.com

Pencil Point

Ballots, not bullets

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Quick Points

Resetting the tone

• Former President Donald Trump and his campaign have reacted to his attempted assassination with calls for calm and unity, a welcome message of moderation. The question is: How long will it last?
• President Joe Biden and his campaign responded to the attempted assassination of Trump by pulling all TV advertising criticizing Trump, a welcome message of moderation. The question is: How long will it last?
• Asked about the tone of this week’s Republican National Convention, GOP Rep. Nancy Mace of South Carolina said, "Well, I think it has to change." Give her points for perceptiveness. We’ll see about points for prognostication.
• Illustrating the anticipated change in tone at the Republican National Convention, former Trump primary rival Nikki Haley overnight went from not attending the convention to being an invited speaker. Is that a genuine move toward embracing differences or seizing a fraught political moment?

— Michael Dobie michael.dobie@newsday.com

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