Take it to the 'blank': Unaffiliated voters likely to be key on LI

Daily Point

Voter registrations up 75,000 in Nassau, Suffolk

Since early February, an additional 75,000 residents on Long Island are registered to vote. While this increase ahead of a presidential election is unsurprising, data points to an increasing trend in unaffiliated voters.

In Nassau County, Democratic registrations inched up by 1.7% and in Suffolk, by 2.8%, according to unofficial data from the New York State Board of Elections. Meanwhile, the Republican Party saw a 3.5% uptick in voter registrations in Nassau and a 4.7% rise in Suffolk.

However the largest percentage gains were in the number of ‘blank’ voter registrations across Long Island, with Nassau County gaining 5.8% and Suffolk County gaining 6.4% new registered voters, another indication that the outcome of many contests could be determined by the growing group of unaffiliated voters.

Suffolk County GOP chairman Jesse Garcia told The Point the new registrations could be a boon. “All of our polling models show that the blanks break 2 to 1 for us,” he said.

Nassau County GOP spokesman Michael Deery said blanks in the county “break 60% GOP.”

Halfway through early voting, attention has been on numbers from key congressional races such as CD4, where Democrat Laura Gillen is challenging Republican incumbent Anthony D’Esposito.  As of Wednesday, an estimated 95,322 early votes and mail-in ballots were counted from CD4, around 46% from registered Democrats, 34% from Republicans and 19% from blanks.

Meanwhile, the most votes so far in Long Island House races are in CD1 which notched a total of 112,045. The turnout in the race so far between Republican incumbent Nick LaLota and Democrat John Avlon could be a reflection of the several highly contested state legislative races that fall within that district. So far 37% votes have been cast by Democrats, 38% by Republicans and 23% by blanks.

In CD3, which stretches from parts of densely populated Queens to a western bit of the Town of Huntington, where Democratic incumbent Tom Suozzi is fighting a challenge from Republican Mike LiPetri, about 101,000 early ballots have been counted as of Oct. 30. Of those, 46% have been from Democrats, 31% Republicans and 22% blanks.

A total of 73,132 votes were cast in CD2, where the lower tally may be an indication of the sense that Republican incumbent Andrew Garbarino is considered a lock over Democratic challenger Rob Lubin. There were 37% votes cast by Democrats, 41% by Republicans and 23%  unaffiliated. The Point was unable to obtain data for the small part of the district in Nassau County, and data for blank votes does not include mail-in ballots.

— Karthika Namboothiri karthika.namboothiri@newsday.com, Rita Ciolli rita.ciolli@newsday.com

Pencil Point

The horror! 

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Final Point

Hochul’s ‘housekeeping’ math

Democrats will hold an election night watch party at the Garden City Hotel where Gov. Kathy Hochul and a lot of cameras are expected. Future control of the House of Representatives runs through Long Island and the results in CD4 will indicate the suburban mood.

Democrats feel so confident Laura Gillen will unseat freshman Republican Anthony D’Esposito that any other result Tuesday night would be considered an “upset,” said one party strategist. So much so that this weekend, labor unions are redirecting their efforts to the uphill CD1 race in Suffolk County where Democrat John Avlon is aggressively pushing to defeat freshman GOP Rep. Nick LaLota, who won the seat two years ago after incumbent Lee Zeldin chose to run for governor.

“We feel good about CD4 and see momentum in CD1, and we will be focusing on them this weekend,” said John Durso, president of the Long Island Federation of Labor. While CD1 is not a linear red-to-blue flip, it would be quite a coup for Democrats who didn’t make the race a top priority -- and a possible bellwether on election night.

The governor is promising a return of at least four House seats to Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Hochul’s math relies on this calculation: Two flips on Long Island due to wins by Gillen and also Tom Suozzi who seems comfortably on a path to victory in neighboring CD3. Suozzi won a special election in February to fill the vacancy created by the expulsion of Republican Rep. George Santos.

Even though the seat is currently in Democratic hands, Hochul told the Point that she took the hit for the Santos flip in 2022, so it rightly goes in her “win” column if it turned blue two years later. To get to four, Hochul needs Josh Riley to defeat Marc Molinaro in CD19 in the Hudson Valley and Tom Mannion to knock out Brandon Williams in CD22 in the Syracuse area.

— Rita Ciolli rita.ciolli@newsday.com

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