Millennial Long Islanders keep renting as houses stay out of reach

While searching in 2019 for a three-bedroom house in Suffolk County, Jonathan Recinos said he saw "decent homes" within his $325,000 budget.

But once the pandemic hit, in-person tours paused, and by the time he got back into the market in 2022, he found himself priced out.

Six years ago, he saw "a lot of single-story ranches" — well-maintained, three- to four-bedroom houses with one to two bathrooms and a garage.

"By the time I started looking again after COVID, I couldn’t find anything under $450,000 that was not falling apart." Bidding wars were competitive, he said, with other buyers making offers $50,000 or more over the asking price, "and I couldn’t compete."

Now, Recinos, 38, married with one child, says he doesn’t ever see himself buying a house on Long Island.

He is like the many millennial Long Islanders who are renting not for the lifestyle but because owning is unaffordable, with inflated housing prices, high interest rates and competition from other buyers, including those offering above asking.

Recinos said homeownership "doesn’t seem like something I can do."

'That lost middle class'

But paying rent can also be a stretch, even for professionals working full time.

Suffolk County’s median gross rent was $2,045 in 2023, lower than in 2021 and 2022, but far higher than the $1,796 it was in 2019, according to the U.S. Census American Community Survey.

Nassau County is even worse — average renters could expect to pay $2,223 in 2023, Newsday reported this fall, compared to the $1,790 in 2019.

That’s compared to median home values — $584,800 in Suffolk, and $674,200 in Nassau in 2023.

Prices have only gone up since then — the median sale price in November was $651,000 in Suffolk, $775,000 in Nassau, Newsday reported.

Recinos is the controller for Melville-based Community Development Long Island (CDLI), a nonprofit that promotes affordable housing, both for renters and home owners.

A lifelong resident of Long Island, Recinos graduated with an accounting degree from the now-shuttered Briarcliff College in Bethpage in 2008 — right in the housing crisis and recession — and remained living with his parents while paying his student loans.

He recalls the difficulty coming up with $4,800 to cover the a broker’s fee, first month’s rent and last month’s rent for his first apartment.

"It’s a lot of money," he said. "It’s like a down payment."

I’m that lost middle class that you always hear about that make too much for the programs but still struggle because of the price of everything.

— Jonathan Recinos, 38, of Central Islip

CDLI has a program that helps renters pay for a security deposit on a new rental, and another helps people pay to relocate to better resourced areas.

He doesn’t qualify for those programs.

"I’m that lost middle class that you always hear about that make too much for the programs but still struggle because of the price of everything," Recinos said.

He’s worked for CDLI for 11 years, and said they have treated him well, giving him promotions and raises, but as the sole earner for his family, home ownership seems out of reach.

He recalls paying $1,600 a month for his first one-bedroom apartment a decade ago in Mineola.

He’s now paying $3,300 a month for a two-bedroom, two-bathroom townhome in Central Islip.

Even the one-bedroom, one-bathroom North Babylon apartment he, his wife, Jessenia, 28, a stay-at-home mother, and baby son recently moved out of cost $3,180.

Despite his good credit and well-paying job, Recinos doesn’t see himself buying a house here.

"We’ve given up on the dream, now we need to start focusing on taking what we would put into a mortgage and investing that."

Francesca Cintorino also has been renting for a decade with no end in sight.

A manager of a Manorville salon, the 33-year-old Manorville resident has a decent salary. But paying $2,100 in rent for a loft apartment, paying for health insurance and saving for retirement leaves almost nothing to save for a down payment on a house.

She has lived in her small apartment for five years, paying $1,500 a  month when she first moved in.

Her first apartment 10 years ago was a basement apartment, for $1,100 a month with utilities included — "When rent was affordable and super cheap."

It forces me to be stuck renting because I can’t afford a house.

— Francesca Cintorino, 33, of Manorville, on having her identity stolen

Beyond the high cost of rent, she didn’t work for three months during the COVID-19 shutdown. Her identity was also stolen at the beginning of the pandemic and used by someone in Texas to take out a small business disaster relief loan.

"It took a long time to correct that, and my credit took a hit," she said. "It forces me to be stuck renting because I can’t afford a house."

She hopes to one day buy in Center Moriches, Manorville, Bellport Village, Speonk or Wading River.

Leaving Long Island isn’t an option since her mother lives nearby. So the unaffordable rents and high-interest mortgages for houses in an inflated market means it’s a someday dream. But it’s still at the forefront of her mind, just like it is for lots of other people.

"I probably have three conversations a day with my clients about the housing market."

Not never, but not now

Zack Holguin and his wife, Brittany, moved to Virginia for college, and stayed there for six years. There, they bought a two-bedroom, one-bathroom house for $124,000 and sold it for $230,000 after renovating the basement to add another bedroom and bathroom,

But both their families were back on Long Island, so in 2022 they returned to where they grew up.

Now,the couple, with two young children, 3 years old and 9 months old, are living with Zack’s parents in Shirley while they save for rent, and hopefully, a house.

Zack, 29, owns his own small construction company, while Brittany, also 29, stays at home with their kids.

He’s renovating a friend’s Babylon house — which he said could be rented for around $3,200 — for a discounted price, then his family will rent it at a lower rate for a few years before buying somewhere nearby.

He doesn’t want to pay $3,000 to rent a single-family house, and renting an apartment doesn’t work because he needs space for trailers and other work equipment.

As for buying, he can’t stomach taking a 7% mortgage, but hopes to start looking in Riverhead or Southampton towns once rates drop.

If we can afford to get the house, it’s a nice place to stay.

— Zack Holguin, 29, of Shirley, on remaining on Long Island

"If we can afford to get the house, it’s a nice place to stay," he said.

He’s not the only one waiting for a break in the market. A recent 2,000-person survey by LendingTree found 38% of Americans think the housing market is at risk of crashing in the next year, with most of them wanting a crash, hoping it would bring about lower home prices and property taxes.

Born and raised in Queens, Simran Nanda moved to Nassau County with her family when she was younger and now rents in Suffolk County.

Nanda, 31, is in product management and is a board member for Long Island Progressive Coalition where she works on climate change impacts, health care and other issues, including housing.

I definitely thought that I would have a house by now. 

— Simran Nanda, 31

She and her husband, a business analyst who also works part time in real estate, are saving for a house, "but I feel like it’s not been affordable for us," she said. "We started looking post-COVID, when things got more expensive."

At open houses, they have seen other buyers offer $75,000 to $100,000 above the asking prices.

They have paused their house search to wait for interest rates go down.

"I definitely thought that I would have a house by now," she said. "Maybe not something big, maybe a starter home."

'There is just no inventory here'

For people in their 20s, it’s hard to find something affordable. And people in their 30s really expect a lot.

— Antje Buelte Dolido, Daniel Gale Sotheby’s International Realty associate broker

During the pandemic, people weren’t leaving their apartments, thus lowering rental inventory, said Antje Buelte Dolido, an associate real estate broker for Daniel Gale Sotheby’s International Realty in Locust Valley.

That very competitive rental market has calmed, and rentals are "sticking around for a month or so," with some price reductions.

But that doesn’t mean they’re now affordable.

"For people in their 20s, it’s hard to find something affordable," she said. "And people in their 30s really expect a lot. They want done rentals and if something is done, it’s popular and people are aggressive with their offers."

Buelte Dolido has seen people in their 20s get a co-signer or a parent on the lease.

She said many clients are renting single-family homes before they commit to buying, testing out the neighborhood.

For some, renting is all they can afford.

With low sales inventory at high prices, "they’re frustrated, so they rent," she said.

Those rentals only make up about 20% of the housing stock on Long Island.

That’s a problem, said Gwen O’Shea, president and CEO of Community Development Long Island, where Jonathan Recinos works.

CDLI offers rental vouchers and counseling, among other things, but "I wish I had more resources to offer," O’Shea said.

"There is just no inventory here on the Island and that’s something that’s very clear when you look at our production and our rental market compared to neighboring communities," she said, noting that New Jersey’s housing stock is about 35% rentals.

With low production, Long Island has old housing stock, necessitating homeowners make improvements, including to accessory apartments.

CDLI helps homeowners get additional income from renting and provides much-needed rental inventory.

Share your thoughts and concerns about not having access to the type of residences that would allow you to stay on Long Island and thrive.

— Gwen O’Shea, CDLI president and CEO, on getting engaged in the community

O’Shea said housing is generally unaffordable but especially sees younger people with high student debt struggle to save for a down payment.

She has seen many young people staying home if they have a parent with a property.

"Paying $3,000 a month in rent isn’t doable, so people are waiting longer to leave the parental house."

She is also hearing about people moving into New York City, Westchester and New Jersey, where there are more affordable options in walkable neighborhoods.

We need more projects like the Town of Huntington’s redevelopment of a Melville office park into a walkable community, with small businesses and up to 3,000 housing units, she said.

But these new housing developments are often delayed — and sometimes nixed completely — by town board and zoning boards.

O’Shea suggests young people get engaged in the community, and if projects are going before a board, speak out.

"Share your thoughts and concerns about not having access to the type of residences that would allow you to stay on Long Island and thrive," she said.