Hank Winnicki's 2021 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, and why it doesn't include Scott Rolen

Scott Rolen never led the league in any offensive category. Not even close, save for the one time he finished second in RBIs, seven behind Vinny Castilla.

He was never a serious candidate for MVP. The closest he came was in his career year in 2004. He finished a distant fourth, receiving one first-place vote. After that, his highest finish in the MVP voting was 14th in 2010.

In 2004, Rolen slashed .314/.409/.598 with career highs in home runs (34) and RBIs (124). His OPS was 1.007. It was the only time he topped 1.000 and the only season he cracked the top 10 in that category. He finished seventh.

Rolen won the Rookie of the Year award in 1997 (21 homers, 92 RBIs, .846 OPS) with the Phillies, but he later clashed with manager Larry Bowa, was the subject of constant trade rumors and was never fully embraced by Philadelphia fans. Granted, that’s a tough crowd to please.

He eventually was shipped to the Cardinals at the trade deadline in 2002 and won his lone World Series ring with St. Louis in 2006.

Rolen had a lackluster .220/.302/.376 slash line in 39 postseason games (159 plate appearances), but he did hit .421 with a homer and two RBIs in five games in the 2006 Series.

He was an eight-time Gold Glove winner and seven-time All-Star who battled shoulder and back injuries for much of his 17-year career. He never played 162 games in a season and topped 150 only five times. After he hurt his shoulder in 2005, the most he could manage was 142. He retired after the 2012 season at 37.

Rolen failed to reach any of the milestones that used to guarantee entry to the Hall of Fame before the steroid era. He barely reached 2,000 hits (2,077) and had 316 home runs. Despite playing during one of the most prodigious offensive periods in MLB history, his career OPS was .8547, good for 160th on the all-time list, just behind former outfielder Reggie Smith (.8549).

Rolen’s bid for the Hall of Fame is seeing a big bounce of late. Of the 11 new players on the ballot this year, none is worthy of induction. With six candidates having been voted in by the BBWAA in the previous two years, the ballot is opening up for players such as Rolen.

The use of advanced metrics in measuring a candidate’s worthiness for Cooperstown is a good thing, and Rolen stands as a prime example of a player who would have received less consideration in the past. But consideration is one thing and enshrinement is another. It all comes down to the voter’s preference for a "Big Hall" or a "Small Hall."

Wins Above Replacement and Adjusted OPS (OPS+) are important factors in determining a player’s value, but they are only part of the equation. Lou Brock had a career WAR of 45.4 and an OPS+ of 109 and was elected in his first year of eligibility. Would that happen today?

The argument for Rolen is built heavily on his career WAR (70.1), which is helped by his defense, and how he compares with other third basemen already in Cooperstown.

There are only six modern-day players with a career WAR higher than Rolen’s who are not in the Hall of Fame. Barry Bonds (162.8), Roger Clemens (139.2) and Curt Schilling (79.5) are three of them.

Lou Whitaker had a 75.1 career WAR, but in his first year of eligibility, he received only 2.9% of the votes and was dropped from the ballot (a player must receive 5% to remain eligible). Bobby Grich had a 71.1 career WAR and received 2.6% of the votes in his first year.

Did voters short-change Whitaker and Grich? Probably. Do they belong in the Hall of Fame? No.

The other player was Rafael Palmeiro (71.9), who was on the ballot for four years before dropping below 5%. Palmeiro was hurt by his emphatic denial of steroid use in a congressional hearing and subsequent positive drug test and suspension.

The problem with comparing candidates to those already in the Hall of Fame is that there is a big difference between being voted in by the BBWAA and getting in via the more sympathetic veterans committee.

One of the more direct comparisons for Rolen is former Cubs third baseman and Hall of Famer Ron Santo. Santo’s WAR was 70.5, a touch better than Rolen's. Santo has more hits (2,254) and home runs (342). Santo’s career offensive WAR (oWAR) was 66.5 compared with Rolen’s 52.7.

Though Gold Gloves and defensive metrics can be dubious, there’s no doubting Rolen’s chops with the glove. He was a superb defender who played his entire career at third base. Santo was no slouch, though, and won four Gold Gloves himself.

Santo would appear to be a stronger candidate than Rolen. Santo was on the BBWAA ballot for 15 years (it has since been reduced to 10 years) and never received the 75% required for entry. Santo’s highest tally was 43.1% in his final year of eligibility, so he never really came close. He was inducted by the veterans committee in 2012.

Does Santo deserve to be in the Hall of Fame? I would not vote for him if he were eligible now, but he likely would fare better today compared with 20 years ago.

The Hall of Fame lists players by primary position. There are 17 third basemen, the lowest number for any position (catcher is second lowest with 19). The BBWAA has elected only eight of those 17 — Wade Boggs, George Brett, Chipper Jones, Eddie Mathews, Paul Molitor, Brooks Robinson, Mike Schmidt and Pie Traynor. Six of those eight were elected the first year they were eligible.

Rolen was first eligible for the Hall in 2018 and received only 10.2% of the vote. It went up to 17.2% in 2019. Last year, it ballooned to 35.3%. Only one player has gone from 10% to eventual enshrinement — Larry Walker, who received 20.3% in his first year but dropped to 10.2% in his fourth year. He rallied in his 10th and final year and was elected with 76.6% of the vote.

Rolen finished his career with an adjusted OPS of 122. An OPS+ of 100 is considered average and a 150 is excellent.

Hall of Famers with a career OPS+ of 122 include Ernie Banks, Molitor and Tony Perez. Non-Hall of Famers with that number include Mickey Tettleton, Brian Downing and Andre Ethier, among others.

Let’s compare that number to just the third basemen who played at the same time as Rolen, using baseball-reference.com’s advanced search options. Among third basemen who played from 1996-2012 with a minimum of 500 games and at least 75% of those games at third base, Rolen ranks sixth among that crowd in OPS+. Jones (143), Evan Longoria (137), David Wright (135), Ken Caminiti (135) and Pablo Sandoval (128) had better OPS+ in that span.

Jones is in the Hall, but the rest of that list is made up of very good, not great players. While Rolen was a terrific defensive third baseman, third base isn’t shortstop, and it’s hard to justify gaining enshrinement on the basis of defense from a corner infielder.

As of this writing, Rolen was getting 69% of this year’s vote, according to @notmrtibbs, a Hall of Fame vote tracker. Though he likely won’t make it this year, Rolen seems destined to be in the Hall of Fame before his 10 years are up.

He'll have to make it without my vote.

This year’s ballot: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling

Last year’s ballot: Derek Jeter, Bonds, Clemens, Schilling

2019 ballot: Roy Halladay, Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, Mariano Rivera, Fred McGriff, Bonds, Clemens, Schilling